Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
On a slow news day in the middle of summer before a long holiday weekend it makes sense that the bitcoin markets are treading water in the low-$30k’s on relatively low volatility and low liquidity, a trend that we expect to continue over the next 2 – 3 days. The technicals also support this view with uncertainty and indecision being in abundance on the charts, although it is nice to see price stay above the $30k level despite these lackluster conditions so we’re staying longer-term bullish moving forward.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll begin this final update of the week with a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term setup before the long weekend and we can see that price remains below all of the moving averages while medium-term market structure remains bearish overall, so we need to stay cautious over the coming days, however price is finding some demand at a key support line which is keeping near-term structure bullish for now so we think downside is relatively limited for the time being. The improving momentum oscillators, steady A/D line, and a TD 9 count (not shown) earlier today are also signs that the bulls have some ammo to play defense with in case the bears get active again before next Tuesday, which is why we’re still in buy the dip mode despite also being fairly conservative at current levels.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
While the technicals are actually starting to look a little better on the 6-hour chart that we just discussed, the weekly chart leaves something to be desired considering that the body of the current bearish candle formation is now firmly inside of the upper demand area, and if the bulls cannot rescue the weekly close over the next few days like they did last week then the bears will gain another advantage moving forward. Market structure (and subsequently the large H&S) are also still a valid concern as this summer progresses, although the almost recharged momentum oscillators, favorable volume indications, and rising moving averages are telling to continue to buy for the longer-term even if we get more shorter-term weakness below $30k.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $33k for upside to the $40k area. Longer-term target resides around $100,000.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC continues to grind along the top of the lower triangle trendline on very mixed candle formations and still highly uncertain market structure while the 50 SMA continues to fall towards the 100 SMA, all suggesting that more consolidation is likely in the 0.0060 – 0.0065 area over the coming days. The recharged but stagnant momentum oscillators, the flatlined A/D line, and a now bearish 200 SMA below the market will not help with directionality over the near-term, therefore we’ll remain neutral around current levels but ready to buy dips at and below the bottom of the triangle/top of the OTE long zone.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0060 for upside to 0.0070. Longer-term target resides in the 0.0120 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
Next we’ll zoom out to the XMR/USD weekly chart where we can see that price is sitting right on the top of the OTE long zone and at a key longer-term support line on a textbook doji candle that signals indecision while shorter-term market structure remains broken and the volume indications slowly deteriorate, so we think more sideways to slightly bearish action is likely over the shorter-term. That said, the rising moving averages, almost recharged momentum oscillators, and multiple areas of technical and historical support below $200 are keeping us in buy the dip mode below that level until further notice.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $200 for shorter-term upside to the $250 area. Longer-term target resides around $1000.
ChainLink (LINK) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance LINK/BTC 3-day linear chart
While LINK/BTC continues to consolidate near the regional lows on a hodgepodge of candle formations and still bearish shorter-term market structure, which will likely keep these conditions going over the long weekend, the fact that price is still finding support above the longer-term demand area while longer-term market structure remains intact is good news for the bulls moving forward. The possibility of an Adam & Eve bottom in this region is also a good sign for the bulls moving forward, as are the fairly encouraging momentum and volume indications, therefore we want to continue to buy dips to and below the 0.00050 area.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00051 for medium-term upside to the 0.00100 area.
TradingView Kraken LINK/USD daily linear chart
LINK/USD is not looking as good as the BTC pair above considering that price is currently moving lower on bearish candle formations that are putting more pressure on an already firmly bearish market structure situation, so the bulls have their work cut out in terms of defending the lows over the coming days. The recent 50/200 SMA death cross, the falling 100 SMA, and the stagnant momentum oscillators also suggest that the bears are still in control, although there continues to be longer-term demand below $16 so that’s where we’ll keep our focus over the coming days.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $16 for medium-term upside to the $30 area.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
ARRR/BTC is still bleeding to the downside as expected on more small but bearish candle formations that are keeping short to medium-term market structure under pressure while the 50 SMA picks up steam to the downside, none of which is good news for the bulls over the shorter-term. The recent deterioration in the OBV reading is also not a great sign for the bulls moving forward, however strong support around the 0.000050 level where the rising 200 SMA resides remains an attractive longer-term buy zone in our opinion.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.000060 for shorter-term upside to the 0.00010 area. Longer-term target resides around 0.00030.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika ARRR/USD daily linear chart
ARRR/USD continues to follow the descending wedge to the downside on still bearish candle formations and broken short to medium-term market structure while the 50 SMA crosses below the 100 SMA, all while OBV continues to slowly bleed to the downside, not great news for the bulls over the upcoming long weekend. That said, momentum is practically fully recharged and support via the 200 SMA and upper demand area around $2 is fairly strong so we still like sub-$2 levels for longer-term accumulation.
Trade Idea: Accumulate around and below $2.00 for shorter-term upside to the $4 area. Longer-term target resides around $24.
Good Luck, Good Trading!