Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(June 26 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
With BTC prices hovering near range lows as the weekend commences and Guggenheim Partners CIO Scott Minerd making another bearish call down to $15k, it comes as no surprise that sentiment is in the dumps and the technicals are looking weak. While we continue to contend that we’re in an accelerated bear period that is likely to end later in the year around or above $20k with a new bull trend emerging by late fall, the outlook for the summer remains dour therefore we’ll stay neutral and cautious until further notice.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
First we’ll look at the daily chart to see where the technicals stand following the rejection at the voided triangle late last week and it appears as though the bears have regained control on some discouraging candle formations and still concerning market structure while the shorter-term moving averages continue to accelerate to the downside with the 100 SMA now getting close to crossing below the 200 SMA like the 50 did last week, so the bulls are certainly still on the defensive for the time being. The fact that the hash ribbon (at the bottom of the chart) that we discussed on Thursday at the TDV Summit is also still falling as expected is also not good for the bulls over the shorter-term, however support in the $30k region is holding so far while all of the momentum oscillators paint bullish divergences and the volume indications remain favorable therefore we’re still on the fence as to whether a bottom is in at $28,600 or if we need to test the $20k area before we can start legitimately basing. The recent rejection below $36,500 puts the odds slightly in favor of another leg down below $28,600, hence our caution, so we’ll pause our buying until more clarity emerges.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
We’ll also take a look at the weekly chart for a view of the longer-term setup and we can see that the bullish hammer candle that we discussed on Thursday has turned decidedly more bearish over the past few days and now looks in jeopardy of closing below the 50 SMA which would be a bad sign for the bulls and one that would drastically increase the odds of lower prices before a sustainable bottom. The very worrisome state of market structure is also still a big reason why the bears are still in control right now, although the rising longer-term moving averages, almost recharged momentum oscillators, and still elevated A/D line all suggest that even if price heads down to $20k over the coming weeks there is still a very good chance that the bull market resumes before the year is up.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term target resides around $100,000.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC has been under some selling pressure over the past few days which has pushed price down to the top of the OTE long zone where some minor support is developing, although the rather bearish candle formations recently and now broken near-term market structure make us think that lower prices are likely in the not too distant future. The falling 50 SMA, broken 100 SMA, slowly bleeding volume indications, and still not yet fully recharged or divergent momentum oscillators also spell trouble for the bulls shorter-term, although we still like the 200 SMA/OTE support confluence below 0.0060 so that’s where we’ll begin to nibble on the long side again.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0060 for upside to 0.0075. Longer-term target resides in the 0.0120 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD is probing below the OTE long zone today on a slightly bearish doji candle much like the one we saw on the local lows from earlier this week but much smaller, which would hint at a bounce soon, although market structure remains firmly bearish and the 50 SMA is falling further below the bearishly reversing 100 SMA so sellers are still in control overall. The fact that price is falling further below the 200 SMA is also bad news for the bulls, however the momentum oscillators are very close to recharged and the volume indications are still favoring the bulls so we’ll continue to use weakness to add to longer-term positions between ~$150 – $200.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $200 for upside to the $300 area. Longer-term target resides around $800.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
ETH/BTC has been battered to the downside over the past several weeks on a series of bearish candle formations and increasingly concerning market structure as price sits right at support, certainly not great news for the bulls moving forward, and neither is the now falling 50 SMA. If we see a breakdown and close below the 0.055 level over the coming days then at least a quick test of sub-0.050 prices is likely before a sustainable bottom forms, however the still rising 100 SMA just below the market and the fairly encouraging state of the momentum and volume indications suggest there’s a chance of an Adam & Eve bottom forming in the mid-0.050’s which is something we’ll watch very closely moving forward.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD continues to look quite bad from a technical perspective considering that price is now well below the $2000 mark on mostly bearish candle formations that are sitting right around previous support, meaning a confirmed break in market structure is becoming increasingly likely, so the bulls still have their work cut out for them if they want to stop the bleeding. The recent break of the 200 SMA, the falling 50 SMA, and the slowly deteriorating volume indications are also bad news for the bulls shorter-term, hence we’ll pause any buying until we see some signs of strength.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre DERO/BTC 4-hour linear chart
While we talked about DERO/BTC last week during the CMU video and the TDV Summit, this will be the first time in quite a while that we’ve covered it in a written update (which will certainly become more frequent now) and we can see that price has fallen back below the key red support/resistance line since last week which we said would be bad for the bulls shorter-term, and indeed price has now moved back down to the upper demand area and the rising 50 SMA thus turning market structure uncertain once again. The slight downtick in the OBV reading and a still recharging RSI are also pointing to a downward bias for now, although the bounce out of the demand area has sparked a bullish 4-hour candle formation while all the moving averages continue to steadily rise so we would use weakness below 0.00025 to add to longer-term positions.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00025 for upside to the 0.00060 area.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika DERO/USD daily linear chart
Since the DERO/USD rally up into and slightly above the OTE short zone that we identified on Thursday price has been moving back to the downside on a series of firmly bearish candle formations thus turning market structure negative for the time being while the momentum oscillators cool off and the OBV reading comes off its recent highs, so the bears appear to be in control for now. That said, there is an immense amount of technical and historical support in the ~$5 – $7 range due to the rising moving averages, OTE long zone, and multiple demand areas therefore we would jump at the chance to buy in this region moving forward.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $7 for longer-term upside to the $24 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!