Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(June 22 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
As we approach the end of a very volatile session over the past 24 hours that was triggered by more China crackdown news, we now see price trying to stabilize above the $32k level following a nice bounce off of longer-term support in the high-$20k’s this morning. No doubt that the past few days have been brutal for the bulls, but when we step back we see that this new cycle low from earlier today is less than 5% below the $30,066 low from May 19th, which makes it a prime candidate for a Wyckoff Spring (a very good thing for the bulls). That said, we’ll need to see a higher low develop above $28,600 over the next few weeks in order to confirm this, and if we don’t get confirmation then $20k is likely in the cards before we can call a bottom.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll start with a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term technicals where we can see that price wicked below the medium-term demand area earlier today but was quickly rejected back above that region in short order thus sparking a bullish candle formation on high volume while the A/D line shows buyers getting involved below $30k, which is fairly good news for the bulls over the next few days. The fact that RSI and Willy have bottomed out while MACD flashes a nice bullish divergence is also positive for the bulls, however market structure is now broken on all short and medium-term timeframes while the moving averages are moving lower so the burden of proof is on the bulls to get price back above $36,500 (which is what is needed to turn us bullish once again).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We also want to look at the daily chart to see what kind of damage has been done and so far things actually don’t look too terrible despite the fact that market structure is broken (as is the triangle), the shorter-term moving averages are accelerating to the downside, and a death cross has been confirmed. The bounce off of the lows earlier today is a sign that there is still demand around and below $30k, and the fairly encouraging volume indications and the recharged (and bullishly divergent) momentum oscillators also suggest that the outlook is potentially more positive than price action would indicate. Having said that, we will stay very conservative until shorter-term market structure starts to become favorable once again, which means we need to see a break of $36.5k first before we can start talking about a sustainable bottom.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $32,000 for shorter-term upside to the $40,000 area. Longer-term target resides around $100,000.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
In typical crypto fashion, XMR/BTC broke briefly above the symmetrical triangle over the weekend only to move sharply lower just hours later, thus voiding the bullish pattern on a large bearish candle formation that is being followed up by another discouraging candle, so the bears are still in control until further notice. The falling 50 SMA, weak A/D line, still falling momentum oscillators, and bearish near-term market structure also favor the bears moving forward, however the top of the OTE long zone sits just below 0.0060 and the 200 SMA resides around 0.0055 so we’ll be buyers between those levels if/when we get the chance.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0060 for upside to 0.0075. Longer-term target resides in the 0.0120 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD broke down out of the triangle formation over the past few days, and broke the 200 SMA too in the process, which means market structure is now bearish while the 50 SMA picks up steam to the downside, not great news for the bulls over the shorter-term (meaning probes below $200 are likely). Having said that, we also think that downside is relatively limited here due to the quick move back into the OTE long zone on still favorable volume indications and bullishly divergent momentum oscillators, and if the lows hold then we’ll have another higher low above the $155.94 May low which is what we’ll be watching for in order to get more bullish over the coming few weeks.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $200 for upside to the $300 area. Longer-term target resides around $800.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance BCH/BTC 3-day linear chart
While BCH/BTC has performed relatively well compared to some other alts over the past few weeks due to the OTE long zone and upper demand area providing support, the breakdown today on a bearish candle formation has confirmed a shift to bearish short and medium-term market structure while the volume indications remain lackluster so we think more downside is likely before a sustainable bottom is found. The falling longer-term moving averages, the break of the 50 SMA, and the still recharging momentum oscillators also suggest more near-term weakness, however we do think a bottom is highly likely in the 0.010 – 0.013 region which is where we’ll be bidding going forward.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.013 for upside to the 0.020 area.
TradingView Coinbase BCH/USD 3-day linear chart
BCH/USD has moved below the 100 SMA today on a bearish candle formation that has confirmed bearish medium-term market structure while the volume indications continue to bleed, so we expect price to stay fairly weak over the coming days. That said, we did tag the still rising 200 SMA today, as well as the bottom of the upper demand area, while the momentum oscillators get close to recharged and MACD shows a bullish divergence, so we think demand will be significant on another move below $400 which is where we’ll buy the dips moving forward.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $400 for upside to the $800 area.
ChainLink (LINK) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance LINK/BTC 3-day linear chart
LINK/BTC looks ugly heading into the daily close due to a break below the ascending triangle and OTE long zone recently on what is currently a very bearish 3-day candle formation that has broken near-term market structure while the shorter-term moving averages turn down once again, none of which bodes well for the bulls moving forward. The break of the 200 SMA and the still recharging momentum oscillators are also bad news for the bulls shorter-term, however the volume indications remain fairly encouraging and there is strong support below 0.00050 so that’s where we’ll begin to think about adding to positions.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00050 for upside to the 0.00100 area.
TradingView Kraken LINK/USD daily linear chart
A break below the triangle early last weekend and a successful test of resistance by the bears the day after led to the strong move lower we’ve seen over the past few days that has sparked some bearish candle formations that are putting a ton of pressure on near-term market structure while the shorter-term moving averages slowly pick up steam to the downside, all bad news for the bulls moving forward. The slowly deteriorating volume indications also suggest that this softness will be with us for a while, although the recharged momentum oscillators and bullishly divergent MACD tell us that we’re getting closer to a sustainable bottom that is very likely to form somewhere above $10 so we’ll continue to buy on weakness when given the chance.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $15 for upside to the $24 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!