Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(June 21 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Market action continues to bleed downwards as we expected after last Thursday’s Crypto Market Update Video where Mr. W and I discussed the downside possibilities. We remain caught in the $30k to $40k range while currently scraping the bottom of the lower $30k’s. Many people blame news events such as the continued China crackdown on mining and today’s news about a banking ban on crypto related transactions. The technical reality is that bitcoin is behaving exactly as it should after the massive 53% correction it experienced last month regardless of news.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
We begin today’s update with the weekly chart for a look at the longer term technicals. I had previously expressed concern about the unperfected TD 9 buy signal seen on the blue reversal candle. The lack of a perfected series with lower lows in the 8 and 9 candles means there is usually a 1-4 week correction to the upside before continuation to the downside. This is exactly how it is playing out as we had a green TD 1 for one week before creating a new red TD 1 series now. It is time to have an honest assessment in regards to the bearishiness of the weekly chart which could lead to another 8 weeks of downside into another TD 9 buy signal before a bottom is found. It is still possible that we simply move sideways and hold $30k when the weekly chart price hits the yellow 50 week moving average just below. A close below that level will require us to consider lower prices. On the positive side, Stochastic RSI is bottomed, MACD is trying very hard to turn around and the CMF shows there is still slightly more dollars entering than leaving at the weekly scale for now. Squeeze momentum is still making lower lows so this will continue to keep upside limited.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
The daily chart shows we reached a TD 9 sell soon after last Monday’s report and this time frame has been showing weakness, as expected since then. This weakness should still prevail for at least another few days before we reach another TD 9 buy signal. Price has hit the strong green support line at $32,356 four times now. Although it is encouraging to see bulls defend this level, the reality is that when support is hit this many times, it usually breaks down. We have 3 other support levels immediately below at $28,895, $28,794 and $27,730. It is entirely possible that market makers will push price down to make a lower low and trigger stop losses to tap into that liquidity in order to create a Wyckoff spring. Price can then finally rally up into our “sell the rally zones” above at $42k, $44k and finally $47k if we can get there.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
The 4 hour chart recently flashed another buy signal inside the grey sky zone below shown by the white check mark. Short term traders who bought inside the OTE green box labeled last week should continue holding and adding more to their position as price moves lower and reduce your average entry price. $29.1k and $27k are our buy areas of interest below. $39k, $40.9k, $42.9k and $44.6k are our newly updated sell targets above according to the 4 hour chart.
Trade Idea: Buy $29,100 and 27,000 for shorter-term upside to the $39,000 and $42,000 areas.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
XMR/BTC
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC 4-hour linear chart
After a great short term entry around the 0.0068 area, XMR/BTC moved up towards our upper targets with reduced expectations and we hit our higher sell points at 0.007439 and 0.007619. We topped out on a TD 9 shortly after that with Fisher sell signals confirming a short term top and have begun correcting since then. We are currently in our first buy level below 0.0068 and closing in on a TD 9 buy signal in 2 more candles. Additional buy levels below are at 0.00635 and 0.0059.
Shorter term trade Idea: Buy the 0.00635 and 0.0059 areas for selling into the 0.0071 and 0.0078 areas.
XMR/USDT
TradingView Binance XMR/USDT 4-hour linear chart
The XMR/USDT pair is following Bitcoin to the downside and is currently in a buy zone at $226. Shorter term traders can buy here and buy more as we move lower into $200 and $172. Upside sell targets are currently at $261, $282 and $293. TD still has 5 more candles of downside before reaching a TD 9 buy signal and Fisher has not yet flashed a buy. We recommend patience since the stance is still bearish, so we must remain in a “sell the rally” mindset and not buy too early.
Shorter term trade Idea: Buy $200 for selling into $261 and $282 areas.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
DERO/BTC
Coinigy TradeOgre DERO/BTC 4-hour linear chart
After today’s TCV Featured Crypto Asset Report and addition of Dero to the crypto portfolio, it experienced a massive rise that has since started to settle down after the initial hype. Shorter term indicators are extremely overbought so we recommend patience for those who want to load up on Dero with BTC for the long term as sellers will take profits from these overbought conditions, while price and moving averages still need time to catch up with one another. The short term OTE (optimal trade entry) buy zone is currently very large ranging between 0.00028 and 0.00039 as seen in the green box. Price is right in the middle so buyers can start nibbling near the bottom of the range. The 50 day moving average is back down at 0.000139 so there is plenty of room to the downside for lower prices and we will have a better picture of more specific buy areas over the next couple of weeks as price settles down.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
DERO/USD
Cointrader DERO/USD 4-hour linear chart
The DERO/USD pair is in a similar technical situation as the BTC pair after today’s announcement. The green box OTE zone currently sits between $7.07 and $8.65 which is definitely below the current $10 price. We recommend traders begin to accumulate in that area, but be aware that moving averages are still down in the $5 and lower zones so there is plenty of room and time to accumulate lower. Previous experiences with coin releases tell us to be patient as Dero is not going to the moon tomorrow so there is no need to FOMO buy immediately. Dollar cost averaging over time is the name of the game.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
ARRR/BTC
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
Today KuCoin announced upcoming ARRR support starting tomorrow so price has begun pumping out of the bottom of the trading range. Indicators were recharged and ready to go before this news event and price has already moved above the daily Bollinger Bands. At this point, there is no reason why we can’t go all the way to the top of the Bands at 0.000171.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
ARRR/USD
Cointrader ARRR/USD daily linear chart
Like the BTC pair, the ARRR USD pair has pumped from near the bottom of the triangle and broken up above it in a single candle, thanks to the KuCoin news. However, the middle Bollinger Band at $4.67 will provide initial resistance and the 50 day moving average above at $5.27 will definitely provide resistance on a first attempt.
Summary
Today has been a day full of announcements from TCV about DERO and KuCoin’s ARRR addition. Bitcoin remains in a bearish stance going into the summer doldrums so traders must remain patient. There could be a period this summer where there isn’t much to do other than Dollar Cost Average purchases of Bitcoin, Monero, Pirate Chain and Dero to load up portfolios for the next bullish phase. This can be frustrating for shorter term traders but sometimes the best trade is to not trade at all.
Good Luck, Good Trading!