Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(June 19 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
As we move into this slow summer weekend price is consolidating as expected following some weakness down into the $34k’s yesterday, which didn’t come as a surprise either given Mr. A and I’s discussion during the TCV CMU video on Thursday that lower prices were likely over the near-term. Given the lack of news and the uncertain technicals we think more of the same is likely at least until early next week, hence we’ll stay neutral unless another dip below $35k materializes (of which we would be buyers if given the opportunity).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll begin this last update of the week with a look at the daily chart where we can see that the move lower yesterday voided the top of the previous symmetrical triangle pattern, however, the lower uptrend line remains intact so it now looks like the formation has morphed into an ascending triangle, which is better news for the bulls moving forward. Having said that, medium-term market structure remains bearish, shorter-term structure is still very shaky, the shorter-term moving averages continue to trend lower, and the momentum and volume indications remain stagnant, so even if the triangle remains in play next week there is still quite a bit of room left for consolidation within the pattern (which we expect over the coming days).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
We’ll also take a look at the weekly chart for a view of the longer-term technicals where we can see that the top of the OTE long zone is yet again acting as support despite a bearish candle formation that will paint tomorrow and messy market structure overall, so we continue to think that the odds favor a hold of the $30k lows through the summer before new ATH’s this fall. The still rising moving averages and elevated A/D line are also good signs for the bulls longer-term, however the momentum oscillators are still recharging and the 50 SMA still hasn’t been tested so we remain prepared for more downside into the low-$30k’s before the bull market resumes later in the year.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $35,000 for shorter-term upside to the $43,000 area. Longer-term target resides around $100,000.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC has moved back above the flatlined 50 SMA and is currently trying to breakout above the large symmetrical triangle, both good signs for the bulls, as are the still rising longer-term moving averages and the favorable momentum oscillators. Improving market structure should also help the bulls moving forward, however the volume indications remain discouraging and there is supply area resistance just overhead so we expect turbulence around the 0.0080 hence we’ll leave our shorter-term target there this weekend.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0065 for upside to 0.0080. Longer-term target resides in the 0.0120 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD remains inside of the symmetrical triangle as expected on mixed candle formations and still uncertain shorter-term market structure while medium-term structure remains bearish and the 50 SMA continues to fall, so we want to stay cautious given more consolidation is likely over the coming days. The fact that price remains trapped between the 100 and 200 SMA’s while resistance resides immediately overhead also suggests more generally directionless action between ~$250 – $300 until further notice (therefore we’ll continue to buy dips into support and sell rips into resistance).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $250 for upside to the $300 area. Longer-term target resides around $800.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
While the medium-term outlook for ETH/BTC has gotten a lot more cloudy over the past several weeks, the shorter-term setup is still looking pretty good for a bounce considering that price is sitting right on the adjusted triangle uptrend line and inside of the OTE long zone while the top of the upper demand area adds even more support in the 0.060 region. The still rising moving averages, almost recharged momentum oscillators, and steady volume indications also suggest that a move higher is likely in the not too distant future, although if the bulls can’t capitalize on these favorable technicals over the next few days then a selloff well into the 0.050’s will probably materialize.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.060 for shorter-term upside to the 0.070 area. Longer-term target remains around 0.120.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD has fallen below the ascending triangle over the past few days which is pretty bad news for the bulls considering that near-term market structure has also been broken while candle formations come in fairly bearish for the time being. The recent break below the 100 SMA and the now bearish 50 SMA also don’t bode well for the bulls over the coming days, hence we’ll stay cautious over the shorter-term, however the rising 200 SMA and improving momentum and volume indications point to strong support below $2k which is where we’ll get active buying again if given the chance.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $2000 for shorter-term upside to the $3000 area. Longer-term target resides around $10,000.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
We’ll wrap up this week with a look at ARRR where on the BTC pair we can see that price is sitting on key support at the rising 100 SMA, the bottom of the OTE long zone, and the top of the upper demand area, so this is a logical place for price to find a local bottom and head higher early next week. The almost fully recharged RSI reading and a slightly bullishly divergent MACD also increase the odds of a near-term hold around current levels, hence we’re still nibbling in this region, however if the bulls cannot defend these levels over the next few days then the door is open to significantly lower prices (so we don’t want to be too aggressive just yet).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.000080 for upside to the 0.000150 area. Longer-term target resides around 0.000300.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika ARRR/USD daily linear chart
ARRR/USD has moved back down to the top of the upper demand area this week thus keeping medium-term market structure bearish while shorter-term structure remains very heavy, all while the 50 SMA moves lower and the OBV line continues to bleed, so we think that the path of least resistance is still down at this time. The recent break of the 100 SMA also points to a bearish bias for the time being, although the 200 SMA is still moving higher, MACD is bullishly divergent, and RSI is almost fully recharged, so we would be buyers of weakness below the $3.00 level.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $3.00 for shorter-term upside to the $6.00 area. Longer-term targets reside around $10 and $15.
Good Luck, Good Trading!