Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(June 16 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
On a slow news day following a significant rally it isn’t much of a surprise that price is still consolidating just below the $40k level as we mentioned was a good possibility yesterday, although in the previous update we posited that a move up to the $42k – $44k area would be likely in the near future. While we still think that this is a reasonable target over the coming days, or perhaps week, it also looks like the technicals are suggesting a bit more downside is probable before the next leg up, weakness that we will use to buy if given the opportunity.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll return to the 6-hour chart today where we can see that price has rolled over a bit over the past 24 hours before hitting the bottom of the lower supply area not long ago which is not a great sign for the bulls, and neither are the lackluster candle formations or the bearish state of medium-term market structure. The 200 SMA also continues to fall and the momentum oscillators are in the middle of recharging, so the bulls might have to wait a few days before tackling $40k again. Having said that, shorter-term market structure remains favorable, the 50 and 100 SMAs continue to slowly move to the upside, and the volume indications are still quite encouraging overall, so we would be buyers of a selloff below the $37k level.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 3-day linear chart
Next we’ll look at the 3-day chart for a broader view of the medium-term technicals where we can see that price is sitting just below the red key resistance line on still highly uncertain market structure and unconvincing candle formations, so it looks like more consolidation is likely over the near-term. On the other hand, the 50 SMA has turned slightly bullish once again thus rejoining the longer-term moving averages in an uptrend while the momentum and volume indications remain favorable and support continues to strengthen in the $30k region, so we still think that this is a summer slumber before a continuation of the bull market to new ATHs later this year.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $37,000 for shorter-term upside to the $43,000 area. Longer-term target resides around $100,000.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC weekly linear chart
Today we’ll zoom out to the XMR/BTC weekly chart where we can see the symmetrical triangle from yesterday’s update remains firmly inside of the broader consolidation range between ~0.005 – 0.0100 while the shorter-term moving averages continue to flatline and market structure remains very uncertain, therefore we think the triangle will be broken sideways thus extending both it and the broader trading range. The fact that the momentum oscillators are chopping around in no man’s land while the volume indications stagnate also suggests more of the same moving forward therefore we’ll stay neutral unless/until a buyable dip below 0.0060 materializes.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0060 for upside to 0.0080. Longer-term target resides in the 0.0120 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/BTC has fallen back below the lower supply area today on a fairly bearish candle formation that is keeping shorter-term market structure quite uncertain while medium-term structure remains broken, so we want to stay cautious until further notice. The mixed shorter-term moving averages and lackluster momentum oscillators also point to more consolidation within the triangle this week, although the 200 SMA continues to rise and the volume indications remain favorable overall so we would use a breakdown out of the triangle as an opportunity to add to positions.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $250 for upside to the $300 area. Longer-term target resides around $800.
ChainLink (LINK) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance LINK/BTC 3-day linear chart
LINK/BTC has been pretty weak recently like many other majors, although this one is looking pretty attractive around current levels considering that price appears to have find a local low in the OTE long zone, around the rising 50 and 200 SMAs, and at the bottom of the medium-term uptrend channel all while the volume indications remain favorable in general, so we are buyers of dips to and below the 0.00060 level. That said, the momentum oscillators still have some recharging to do and the 100 SMA has turned lower above the market therefore we’re expecting more choppy consolidation around current levels over the shorter-term before a move above 0.00070 materializes later this summer.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00060 for medium-term upside to the 0.00100 area.
TradingView Kraken LINK/USD 3-day linear chart
Similar to many alt/USD pairs, LINK is forming a symmetrical triangle pivoting around a key support/resistance line while candle formations remain unhelpful and market structure is still a total mess, so we think more consolidation within the triangle is likely over the near-term. Having said that, all of the moving averages continue to rise, the 100 SMA is acting as support, and the momentum and volume indications are looking quite good so we will continue to buy dips below $22 in order to add to current positions.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $22 for shorter-term upside to the $30 area. Longer-term target resides around $50.
Wownero (WOW) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre WOW/BTC daily linear chart
WOW/BTC is finally worth a look once again following several weeks of consolidation that was capped off yesterday by a selloff into the key support line drawn months ago, and so far the rejection off of that level has been fairly encouraging, especially in conjunction with a recharged RSI and a bullishly divergent MACD. The fact that OBV is still flatlining while the longer-term moving averages continue to rise is also positive for the bulls moving forward, however the 50 SMA is falling and price is trapped between the 100 and 200 SMAs so it looks like more choppy action between ~0.00000600 and 0.00001000 is likely over the coming days (and perhaps even weeks).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00000800 for upside to the 0.00001000 area.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika WOW/USD daily linear chart
WOW/USD remains trapped below the key support-turned-resistance line coming off of the highs from the spring on what looks like accumulation-type action while longer-term market structure remains bullish overall, so we’ll continue to use weakness to add to longer-term positions. The almost recharged RSI, a bullishly divergent MACD, and rising moving averages are also suggesting that a longer-term bull market is still in play, however said moving averages are acting as a range right now while the 50 SMA moves lower and the OBV reading remains discouraging therefore we’ll stay patient with this one over the coming days and weeks.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $0.35 for upside to the $1.00 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!