Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(June 15 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
As good news starting to flow back into the crypto markets with Elon Musk reigniting the possibility of Tesla accepting bitcoin as payment, Paul Tudor Jones recommending a 5% BTC portfolio allocation, and Michael Saylor vying for the option to sell up to $1B in equity (presumably to buy bitcoin), the price has reacted favorably moving up to the $40k region over the past 72 hours. The technicals are also starting to improve on most relevant timeframes, so we think more upside is likely over the next few days. That said, we remain in a medium-term trading range so it’s still not the right time to get aggressive.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
First we want to take a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term technicals following this recent rally and things still look good for the bulls for the time being considering that price is consolidating near the local highs on improving near-term market structure while the 50 SMA begins to cross back above the 100 SMA, both of which are now beginning to trend higher again, so the bias appears to still be to the upside for now. The lack of historical resistance just overhead and the still quite encouraging volume indications also suggest more upside following this pause (which could easily last several more hours), although the momentum oscillators don’t look all that great and we’re still technically in a range so we would be taking profits on shorter-term positions between $42k – $44k.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We also want to look at the daily chart for a slightly longer-term view of the market and we can see that we had a clean break above the triangle on Sunday on a firmly bullish candle formation that was followed up by another favorable candle that turned near-term market structure positive, all good news for the bulls moving forward. The rising momentum oscillators and steady volume indications are also positive signs for the bulls, although the 50 and 200 SMAs are still on a collision course in a few days right in our $42 – $44 target zone, thus confirming that it’s probably wise to book some profits there.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $35,000 for shorter-term upside to the $43,000 area. Longer-term target resides around $100,000.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
Another day, another triangle for XMR/BTC, this time a fairly large symmetrical triangle formation that is suggesting more consolidation in the 0.0065 – 0.0075 area over the coming days, and this idea is being supported by the mixed shorter-term moving averages and the still highly uncertain state of short and medium-term market structure. The slowly deteriorating volume indications, suboptimal momentum oscillators, and the lack of historical support immediately above or below the market also points to more of the same over the near-term, so we’ll stay neutral until we get some signs of directionality coming out of the triangle.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0065 for upside to 0.0080. Longer-term target resides in the 0.0120 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD has been moving to the upside over the past several days on bullish candle formations and improving shorter-term market structure which is a result of the still intact double bottom pattern that is peppered with higher lows, so the bulls have something to work with as this week progresses. The improving volume indications and the still favorable momentum oscillators are also good for the bulls moving forward, hence a run at $300 is likely before another selloff, although the triangle formation, mixed moving averages overhead, and historical resistance around current levels tell us that we should be trimming short-term positions as price approaches $300.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $250 for upside to the $300 area. Longer-term target resides around $800.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance BCH/BTC 3-day linear chart
BCH/BTC continues to look interesting in this 0.015 area due to support in the form of the OTE long zone, upper demand area, and rising 50 SMA, so we’re still in buy the dip mode at this time. The fact that the momentum oscillators are getting closer to recharged while the volume indications remain fairly steady is also good news for the bulls overall, however price is back below the falling 100 SMA and the 200 SMA remains firmly in a downtrend so we need to see a shift in market structure to get truly bullish once again.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.014 for upside to the 0.023 area.
TradingView Coinbase BCH/USD daily linear chart
Like many altcoin charts right now BCH/USD is also forming a symmetrical triangle just above longer-term support while market structure remains a problem, although unlike many other this one looks poised to break to the upside in the not too distant future considering that it is right at the upper triangle trendline while price remains is above the rising 200 SMA. The very favorable momentum and volume indications also suggest that the bulls have a good shot at a breakout in the near-future, although resistance around $750 will be heavy so we expect some turbulence there.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $600 for upside to the $800 area.
ARRR (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC 3-day linear chart
ARRR/BTC has been bleeding to the downside recently on small but bearish candle formations that are keeping market structure uncertain but also quite heavy while the 50 SMA rolls over and the momentum oscillators continue to recharge, so we want to stay neutral over the near-term. The fact that OBV is stagnant is also not great for shorter-term directionality, but it is still elevated while the longer-term moving averages continue to rise so we’ll continue to use weakness to add to longer-term positions.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00010 for upside to the 0.00017 area. Longer-term target resides around 0.00030.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika ARRR/USD 3-day linear chart
ARRR/USD has settled into a tight consolidation range just above the still rising 100 SMA and below the 50 SMA while shorter-term market structure remains favorable but medium-term structure is still firmly bearish, all suggesting more of the same over the coming days. The still recharging momentum oscillators, slowly deteriorating OBV reading, and a now bearish 50 SMA also point to some challenging times ahead, at least over the next few days, so we’ll stay neutral and on the sidelines until some signs of directionality emerge.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $4.00 for shorter-term upside to the $6.00 area. Longer-term target resides around $20.00.
Good Luck, Good Trading!