Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook

(June 14 – 2021)

Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook

Market action continues to move to the upside as expected following last week’s crypto market update. Although we have the usual Elon Musk tweets, this bullish action is technical in nature and expected after the large sell off we experienced in May.

In the meantime, the market provided an opportunity for short term traders to sell into strength before buying lower again. Price action remains strong and while it may take a break over the next 1 – 2 days, we do not believe this move is quite done yet.

TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart

We begin today’s update with a look at the 4-hour chart. We can see last week’s trade idea worked out perfectly as shown by the white check marks where price reached our buy and sell targets. Traders who took the trade profited from a nice $5,000 move off the bottom. Since then, the weather has changed, the bears lost their clear skies below and things became cloudy as marked by the yellow circle. This change immediately made dips shallower, reduced downside risk and initiated the conditions for a strong move up. Price got very close to our “$42k sell the rally” area but has now started a correction. We can see TD Sequential reached a TD 9 top at $41k along with the Inverse Fisher sell signal, which tells us we reached a short term top for the time being.  We now have $36.8k and $35.2k buy areas marked by green arrows below around the green box OTE buy zone. Those are areas for short term traders to buy in anticipation of another move up towards the red arrow sell targets at $42.1k and $45.4k. The $49.6k target remains the ultimate sell the rally area if we can reach it.

TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart

The daily chart is showing more strength than we have seen since before the large May sell off.  We have 2 bright green candles in a row.  Squeeze momentum is green and trending up along with MACD.  Inverse Fisher remains bullish green and is not yet overheated while CMF shows money has continued to flow into BTC since we established that bottom last week.  RSI has regained the 50 level in a bullish stance, while StochRSI is beginning to enter overheated territory but could remain up there for many days. We are currently in a TD 6 so there are at least 3 more days of strength before we reach a TD 9, where this time frame will need at least a short break. We expect a daily top to occur somewhere in the $42k-44k area before we pause and re-evaluate what comes next. The market is building an irresponsible amount of short margin positions at this time, so a strong move up could trigger a short squeeze that wipes out all that leverage and takes us much higher. The action over the next week could be very interesting.

TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart

The weekly chart looks encouraging for the first time in quite a while although it is still early to get very excited.  We hit our TD 9 weekly buy signal and closed last week with a reversal candle.  Now we are flashing a reversal confirmation candle. This is a textbook TD reversal pattern for a minimum of 1-4 weeks of upside.  This candle will not close until next Sunday so anything could happen over the next week.  The Squeeze momentum is still trending down, which tells us that upside is limited. MACD is beginning to turn up after last week’s StochRSI buy signal, CMF is flattening out showing the selling has ended for the time being and dollars have stopped flowing out of bitcoin.  This is a constructive structure but it will need to hold over the next few weeks before we can call a bottom with more confidence.

Trade Idea: Buy $35,200 and $36,800 for shorter-term upside to the $42,100 and $45,400 and ultimately $49,600 area.  

Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook

XMR/ BTC

TradingView Binance XMR/BTC 4 hour linear chart

XMR/BTC is beginning to look heavier with the weather turning down above while it has found support near our buy levels from last week.  Our first 0.00685 buy zone was reached and we nearly hit our original second buy area 0.00629.  Going forward we will buy a dip into 0.00627 and 0.00577 for selling into the red arrow targets above. Bitcoin dominance is rising and that will cause alts to suffer over the short term, so we are going to lower our expectations for selling the upside with new lower sell targets.

Shorter term trade Idea: Buy the 0.00629 and 0.00577 areas for selling into 0.00713 and 0.00743 areas.

Good Luck, Good Trading!