Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(June 12 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Without much in the way of news heading into this weekend, either good or bad, the markets are left to their own devices over the next few days meaning that the technicals will likely drive the action. This is not great news for the bulls or bears considering that the charts are suggesting more choppy consolidation in the ~$33 – $38k area with a slight downward bias, therefore we want to stay neutral and on the sidelines unless we get another weekend dump (which we would be buyers of).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll start this last update of the week with a look at the daily chart for a view of the medium-term setup where we can see that perhaps another larger, more extended triangle is forming as price consolidates around the $35k level on a hodgepodge of candle formations, uncertain short-term market structure, and bearish medium-term structure, therefore we need to stay cautious until some directionality emerges. The stagnant momentum and volume indications also point to more of the same this weekend, however the current candle formations is bearish, the shorter-term moving averages are accelerating to the downside, and the 50/200 Death Cross will likely be confirmed next week, so we think that there is a near-term downward bias to the $34k region.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
Next we’ll look at the weekly chart for the first time in a while to see where the longer-term technicals stand and despite a slightly bearish doji candle this week we have yet another rejection out of the OTE long zone and upper demand area while the moving averages continue to trend higher, so the bulls are still in decent shape for the time being. The fact that the momentum oscillators are almost recharged is also positive for the bulls, however a flatlined A/D line and poor market structure don’t bode as well for the bulls shorter-term thus reaffirming our neutral to slightly bearish stance this weekend.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $34,000 for shorter-term upside to the $42,000 area. Longer-term target resides around $100,000.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC has been moving generally to the downside over the past few days in line with our outlook from Thursday’s video, which we expect to continue over the near future despite the nice bounce higher today. This is due to the reversing 200 SMA, lackluster momentum and volume indications, and broken/heavy market structure setup, so we’re still anticipating a continuation down to the 0.0055 – 0.0060 area before the bulls get active once again (including us).
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0060 for upside to 0.0080. Longer-term target resides in the 0.0120 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD is once again testing the still rising 200 SMA, this time on a textbook doji candle that signals indecision while at the same time market structure remains bearish overall, therefore we think there is a pretty good shot at lower prices over the coming days. The falling 50 SMA and stagnant momentum oscillators also suggest a downward bias over the near-term, however the favorable volume indications and the OTE long zone just below the 200 SMA both point to buyers being ready to deply capital below $200 so that’s where we’ll save our buys for until further notice.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $200 for upside to the $400 area. Longer-term target resides around $800.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
We’ll return to ETH/BTC today as it remains a good proxy for many of the major alts and we can see on the daily chart above that price moved all the way down to the upper part of the OTE long zone over the past few days on firmly bearish candle formations that have turned market structure much heavier recently, although today we’re seeing a nice bounce out of the OTE on a strongly bullish candle formation that has a good shot at becoming a bullish engulfing later today before the close so it’s quite possible the the local bottom is now in. The still rising moving averages, decent volume indications, and price nearing the bottom of the developing triangle also suggest that we’re getting closer a reversal back to the upside, although likely only back to the 0.070 area as the medium-term consolidation remains in full effect (possibly for most of the summer).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.065 for shorter-term upside to the 0.075 area. Longer-term target remains around 0.120.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD has moved back down to the medium-term uptrend line today thus keeping shorter-term market structure quite heavy while price now trades below the 100 SMA on stagnant momentum oscillators and a reversing 50 SMA, not great news for the bulls moving forward. The lack of historical support until the $2000 region is also not great for the bulls right now, hence a quick breakdown below the trendline to test the rising 200 SMA and upper demand area is definitely possible over the coming days, however we think this weakness will be used by the bulls to add to longer-term positions which is what we are planning on doing as well.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $2200 for upside to the $3000 area. Longer-term target remains around $10,000.
Aeon (AEON) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Bittrex AEON/BTC 3-day linear chart
We’ll wrap up this week with a look at AEON for the first time in a while where we can see on the BTC pair that price is still consolidating right around the flatlined 200 SMA, a 200 SMA that has not been this encouraging since 2018, while the 50 SMA trends higher and the momentum and volume indications begin to improve, all fairly good news for the bulls longer-term. The fact that price is finding support at the top of the OTE long zone and above the falling 100 SMA is also good news for the bulls overall, as is the possibility of a medium-term higher low, however longer-term market structure remains bearish and we’re back below the downtrend line so we’ll likely have to stay patient with this one over the shorter-term before seeing more sustainable upside later in the year.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.000025 for upside to the 0.000050 area. Longer-term target resides around 0.000100.
TradingView Bittrex AEON/USD 3-day linear chart
AEON/USD continues to tread water in the upper demand area around the key psychological $1.00 level on very mixed candle formations and firmly bearish medium-term market structure while the momentum oscillators continue to recharge, so it looks like the bears are still in control for now. Having said that, price is finding support at the rising 50 SMA while the longer-term moving averages continue to trend higher, and the volume indications remain highly encouraging, so we will continue to use weakness below $0.75 to add to longer-term positions given that longer-term market structure remains bullish overall.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $0.75 for shorter-term upside to the $1.50 area. Longer-term target resides around $3.00.
Good Luck, Good Trading!