Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Things are starting to look better for the BTC bulls as price has recovered back to the $36k area today on the back of the El Salvador news following a brutal shakeout down to the $31k area yesterday that likely spooked a lot of newer investors. While this period has been painful for the uninitiated, it is healthy for the market from a longer-term perspective as leverage and speculation have been significantly reduced. While we’re certainly not out of the woods yet by any means, we are starting to see some fundamental and technical green shoots which is encouraging moving forward.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
First let’s look at the 6-hour chart where we can see that price broke down below the shorter-term uptrend line yesterday thus keeping near-term market structure bearish while all of the moving averages continue to move to the downside, not great news for the bulls moving forward. That said, price has recovered back above the trendline over the past 24 hours on very favorable volume indications and improving momentum oscillators while the 50 SMA is broken to the upside as well, so while we don’t think that the bull market is likely to resume in earnest any time soon it does look more like a bottom is forming in this region between supply and demand areas (so we’ll continue to use weakness to add to longer-term positions).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll also look at the daily chart to see where the medium-term technicals stand following the selloff yesterday and for now things don’t look too bad actually considering that we got yet another bounce out of the upper demand area yesterday thus sparking a bullish reversal candle that is being followed up by a firmly bullish green candle that is keeping market structure from deteriorating further. The improving momentum oscillators and the still fairly encouraging volume indications are also good signs for the bulls moving forward, however the impending death cross that will likely print sometime next week is a concern to be sure so we’ll continue to stay conservative and neutral unless another dump into the low-$30k’s occurs (which we would buy once again).
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $33,000 for shorter-term upside to the $42,000 area. Longer-term target resides around $100,000.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/USD remains in consolidation mode which means the steep ascending triangle that we identified on Monday has been voided thus allowing the 50 SMA to catch up to price while market structure remains concerning overall, so we would not be surprised to see more of a retracement over the coming days. The stagnating volume indications and lackluster momentum oscillators confirm this view, although we expect the rising 100 and 200 SMAs to provide strong support on weakness into the 0.0055 – 0.0060 area so that’s where we’ll be buying if given the opportunity.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0060 for upside to 0.0080. Longer-term target resides in the 0.0120 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
The sideways movement in XMR/USD over the past 24 hours has rendered the previously discussed ascending triangle irrelevant thus keeping shorter-term market structure bearish while the 50 SMA picks up steam to the downside and the 100 SMA continue to slowly flatline, all suggesting choppy to slightly bearish price action over the coming days. That said, the rising 200 SMA is acting as support while the momentum and volume indications remain highly favorable for the bulls so we still want to be buyers of weakness below $240 like we saw yesterday.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $240 for upside to the $400 area. Longer-term target resides around $800.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
What looked like a clean breakout above the ascending triangle earlier this week for ETH/BTC has turned into a fakeout and subsequent breakdown back below previous resistance on a firmly bearish candle formation that is putting more pressure on an already broken and heavy market structure setup while the momentum oscillators begin to roll over and recharge, none of which bodes well for the bulls over the shorter-term. The slight deterioration in the volume indications is also a cause for concern near-term, however all of the moving averages continue to rise, of which the 50 SMA is sitting just above the OTE long zone, all of which should act as support so we’ll buy weakness down into the 0.060 – 0.065 area if given the chance.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.065 for upside to the 0.120 area.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD continues to tread water inside of the large ascending triangle on a hodgepodge of candle formations while shorter-term market structure remains bearish but longer-term structure is still intact, all pointing to more consolidation in the $2000’s for the foreseeable future. The fact that price is still trapped between the 50 SMA overhead and the 100 SMA below the market also suggests more of the same moving forward, although the volume indications remain relatively strong and the momentum oscillators are looking better so we’ll stay in buy the dip mode until further notice.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $2400 for upside to the $3000 area. Longer-term target resides around $10,000.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
While it’s encouraging to see ARRR/BTC try to move higher today as many alts bleed to the downside, the rejection at the bottom of the lower supply area earlier has sparked a rather bearish candle formation as OBV starts to deteriorate and MACD is close to crossing back below its zeroline, so we think another move down to the bottom end of the OTE long zone is likely over the coming days. The fact that the still rising 100 SMA has yet to be tested since the parabolic rally in April also suggests that some downside is needed over the near-term, although we think this downside will present another great buying opportunity hence we’ll stay ready with dry powder for lower levels.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00012 for upside to the 0.00024 area.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika ARRR/USD daily linear chart
ARRR/USD has caught a bid over the past 24 hours on the back of BTC/USD strength thus sparking a bullish candle formation that is increasing the likelihood of a shorter-term higher low meaning market structure is still improving for now, good news for the bulls moving forward. The steady OBV reading and stabilizing momentum oscillators are also good signs for the bulls overall, as are the rising moving averages, however longer-term market structure remains bearish and price is still trapped between the 50 and 100 SMAs so it looks like more consolidation in the $4 – $6 area is on the menu for the remainder of the week.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $4.00 for shorter-term upside to the $8 area. Longer-term target resides around $24.
Good Luck, Good Trading!