Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook

Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook

Market action continues the bearish stance followed by FUD reports that USA agencies cracked private keys of the pipeline hackers and recovered the BTC ransom. This is highly unlikely and if funds were actually recovered, they were likely seized from an exchange or the private keys were physically acquired. This could have been done via a raid, or by interrogation or  torture of the perpetrator(s). It is also possible that the entire event was a false flag operation.

In the meantime, this bearish action provides an opportunity to accumulate coins for the long term and this point of view is supported by the bitcoin outflow from exchanges into long term holder wallets. Exchange order books remain stacked bullish with many more bids than asks, showing that smart buyers are simply buying from short term panic sellers as they push prices into their bids at the lower price levels.  This type of order book profile does not fit a long term bear market type scenario where asks will outnumber bids.

TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 144-minute linear chart

We begin today’s update with a look at the very short term 144 minute chart.  Price has entered the buy area below at around $32k while iFish Smooth is flashing a buy signal not seen since the $30k capitulation event. TD Sequential is still on a TD 5 so we still have some time to move lower into a TD 9 where the most optimal buy areas at $27.5k and $29.8k currently sit.   This would set things up for a move back up to a first target of $35.2k where longs can take profits.  $38.4k and $42.5k remain higher targets if bulls can muster enough momentum after we hit the first target.

TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart

The 4 hour chart shows a similar technical picture to the very short term chart with buy levels in similar areas shown by the green arrows.  Red arrows also show similar price levels to the 144 minute chart where sellers can take profits, with the uppermost red arrow at $47k showing where price could hit on a relief rally that has enough strength. This is still a bearish structure so selling rallies remains the name of the game until we finally enter a consolidation phase.

TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD Daily linear chart

The daily chart also remains bearish after the triangle breakdown. We are currently on a TD 5, leaving plenty of room for a move into a TD 9 buy set up over the next 4 days. We can perhaps expect a small bounce at this midway point of the TD Sequential count but the reality is we will likely hit the green box buy zone where the green support lines currently sit. MACD is turning down while Squeeze momentum is turning down again in agreement. The only positive outlook can be found on a slightly bullish CMF, showing money flow remains positive through today’s correction, so dollars are still flowing in. It would actually be preferable to make a small new lower low and then spring back up from there. The next chart will show the reason why.

TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart

The weekly chart is currently showing a TD 9 Buy set up signal. This is currently an imperfected buy, which usually means we will see new lows after a 1-4 week bounce up. If we can make a new low and perfect this setup, there is a stronger case for an intermediate term bottom to be put in.  We will have a daily TD 9 in 4 days so the confluence of both signals could be enough to perfect this set up. The weekly Stochastic RSI has bottomed and CMF appears to be flattening showing the selling has slowed down.  However MACD and Squeeze momentum are still in deceleration mode which could make things difficult for the bulls to hold a bottom here. The next 2 weeks will be very telling as to what the market wants to do with this bearish phase and how long it will take to recover. There is always a possibility that $30k was the bottom but the technical picture is not yet showing a bottom is in place.

Trade Idea: Buy $27,900 and 29,700 for shorter-term upside to the $35,100 and $38,400 area.  $42,000 and $47,000 remain “sell the rally” areas if they can be reached.

Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook

XMR/BTC

TradingView Binance XMR/BTC 4 hour linear chart

XMR/BTC has continued to find support at current levels even as BTC continues on its bearish trend which is very encouraging.  It looks like we can expect more consolidation at current levels with a target at 0.00817 and 0.00867 level above shown by the red arrows.  0.00685 and  0.00629 remain the optimal buy levels to catch any dips shown by the green arrows.  The trend appears to be shifting more bullish as seen by the shift from darker grey into lighter grey in the sky area above the chart.

Shorter term trade Idea: Buy 0.00685 and 0.00629 for selling into 0.00817 and 0.00867 areas.

Good Luck, Good Trading!