Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Following a successful and eventful Bitcoin 2021 conference in Miami that was capped off with huge news that El Salvador will try to make bitcoin legal tender, we received more good news in the form of Michael Saylor and Microstrategy announcing plans to raise another $400 million via a bond offering in order to buy the bitcoin dip. The fact that neither of these announcements moved the market to the upside reveals that we’re still in a fairly bearish regime right now, as does the selloff earlier today on the back of bearish comments out of former US President Donald Trump, so we want to stay cautious moving forward especially given the currently bearish price action heading into the daily close.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll begin this week with a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term technicals where we can see that price has voided the symmetrical triangle due to the sideways consolidation that materialized over the weekend which means near-term market structure remains highly uncertain while medium-term structure is still bearish and candle formations remain mixed, so it looks like more of the same is in the cards over the coming days. The fact that the 50 SMA has reversed back to the downside to rejoin the longer-term moving averages in a downtrend is also telling us to stay on the sidelines for the time being, as is the A/D line which has taken a hit, however there is an intact uptrend line current acting as support and the momentum oscillators look pretty good so we’ll use weakness below $33k to add to longer-term positions if given the chance.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 3-day linear chart
Next, we’ll zoom out to the 3-day chart where we can see that price still has yet to close below the top of the OTE long zone as the tightening consolidation around $35k remains in play, which is decent news for the bulls, however the last two candle formations have come in quite bearish, medium-term market structure remains broken and heavy, the 50 SMA has rolled over, and the volume indications remain lackluster. While the rising longer-term moving averages are keeping us bullish longer-term, we are still prepared for a washout below $30k before this mini bear market is truly over.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $33,000 for shorter-term upside to the $42,000 area. Longer-term target resides around $100,000.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC weekly linear chart
XMR/USD has settled into a tight consolidation range in the 0.0075 area on mixed candle formations, uncertain market structure, mixed shorter-term moving averages, and suboptimal momentum oscillators, so we want to stay firmly on the sidelines over the coming days. The falling 200 SMA is also keeping us cautious moving forward, however the fact that price is finding support above the 50 and 100 SMAs is good news for the bulls overall, as are the still slowly improving volume indications, so we’ll continue to buy weakness below 0.0070 in order to add to longer-term positions.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0070 for upside to 0.0080. Longer-term target resides in the 0.0120 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
There are a lot of conflicting signals at play on the XMR/USD daily chart right now such as the bullish ascending triangle that has formed on improving shorter-term market structure and still favorable momentum and volume indications, while at the same time medium-term structure remains firmly bearish and the 50 SMA continues to fall. The bearish candle formation today that has developed as a result of the rejection off of the lower resistance line is also concerning for the bulls moving forward, and the slowly rising moving averages surrounding the market point to more directionless action, so we think the triangle gets voided soon as price moves sideways over the course of this week.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $240 for upside to the $400 area. Longer-term target resides around $800.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance BCH/BTC 3-day linear chart
BCH/BTC hasn’t been moving much over the past several days as all eyes were on BTC and the conference, although we’re expecting some movement to the downside soon given heavy shorter-term market structure and small but bearish candle formations that have developed recently. The falling longer-term moving averages and lackluster momentum and volume indications also suggest a challenging environment for the bulls over the coming days, however we are expecting the bulls to reemerge in the OTE long zone and upper demand area so we’ll continue to nibble below 0.016.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.016 for upside to the 0.023 area.
TradingView Coinbase BCH/USD daily linear chart
BCH/USD has been creeping to the downside over the past few days on mostly bearish candle formations and broken/heavy market structure while the 50 SMA reverses to the downside and price remains below the 100 SMA, none of which bodes well for the bulls over the shorter-term. The still discouraging momentum oscillators aren’t helping matters for the bulls, although the 200 SMA is still rising and should act as support on weakness and the volume indications remain favorable overall so we’ll buy dips below $600 for a countertrend bounce back towards the $800 area later this month.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $600 for upside to the $800 area.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
After hitting supply area resistance late last week ARRR/BTC has been moving slowly to the downside on bearish candle formations that are putting pressure on an already highly uncertain market structure situation while the momentum oscillators begin to recharge again with lots of room to run lower, so we think it best to stay on the sidelines over the next few days. Having said that, all of the moving averages continue to rise and the volume indications remain favorable so we’ll use a dip back into the OTE long zone to add to positions moving forward.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00014 for upside to the 0.00025 area.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika ARRR/USD daily linear chart
ARRR/USD has been trending lower over the past few days following a rejection at the 50 SMA over the weekend that sparked a rather bearish candle formation while medium-term market structure remains firmly bearish due to the series of lower highs and lower lows, all bad news for the bulls moving forward. The fact that RSI remains in no man’s land is also not great for the bulls, hence we’ll stay neutral over the shorter-term, although the longer-term moving averages are still rising below the market and the OBV reading shows buyers remaining active in this area so we’re expecting a higher low above $2.55 hence we’ll buy the dip.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $4.50 for shorter-term upside to the $8 area. Longer-term target resides around $24.
Good Luck, Good Trading!