Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(June 1 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Despite the low liquidity holiday weekend, the price action in BTC was actually fairly tame overall which tells us that perhaps we’re getting closer to a sustainable bottom in terms of both time and price. We also like the fact that many newer participants and commentators have turned bearish, as has JP Morgan, despite the fact that a ton of leverage has been taken out of the system over the past few weeks (with no bailout needed), so we are still bullish on crypto from a longer-term perspective. That said, the charts remain quite worrisome in general, hence there is still a lot of healing that needs to be done even if the bottom is in at $30k, so we’re not rushing into any positions around current levels.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll start the month of June with a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term technicals where we can see that price continues to consolidate within a symmetrical triangle pattern and below the still falling 50 SMA while the longer-term moving averages remain in steady downtrends, none of which bodes well for the bulls over the coming days. It doesn’t help that the momentum oscillators are treading water below their respective midlines in need of more recharging, so we’re staying on the sidelines over the near-term, however the volume indications still favor the bulls overall so we’ll continue to use weakness into the low-$30k’s to add to longer-term positions.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD monthly log chart
Next we’ll look at the monthly log chart to see where the technicals stand as we begin the first week of meteorological summer in the US, and things don’t look great from a shorter-term perspective considering that a bearish candle formation painted yesterday that has turned markets structure quite heavy for the time being, so we need to stay cautious until further notice. The momentum oscillators also have some recharging to do in order to reset for a run at new ATHs, hence we’re still expecting several weeks of consolidation between ~$30k – $50k over this summer, however the moving averages continue to rise, the volume indications remain encouraging, and there is strong technical support just below $30k so while a spike into the $20k’s is still possible we don’t think prices are likely to stay there for very long (buy, buy, buy).
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $32,000 for shorter-term upside to the $42,000 area. Longer-term target resides around $100,000.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC has been consolidating around the 0.0070 level for the past several days on a hodgepodge of candle formations and highly uncertain short and medium-term market structure while the momentum oscillators continue to stagnate in no man’s land, so more of the same appears likely over the next few days. The fact that the OTE short zone is just overhead and the rising 50 SMA is just below the market also points to more sideways consolidation, however given what looks like a lower high late last week we think a breakdown is more likely than a breakout once price starts moving again, so we’ll stay patient for the 0.0060 area before trying to buy again.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0060 for upside to 0.0090. Longer-term target resides in the 0.0120 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD is looking much better this week than it did last considering that price held the slowly rising 200 SMA throughout the holiday weekend and over the past few days has rallied back above $250 on some more encouraging candle formations that have helped shorter-term market structure. The momentum and volume indications also remain quite favorable so we’re getting more bullish overall, however the flatlined 100 SMA overhead, the falling 50 SMA above there, and bearish medium-term market structure all suggest that we’re likely to see a rather prolonged period of consolidation between ~$200 – $320 before the bulls truly return to the marketplace in earnest.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $225 for upside to the $450 area. Longer-term target resides around $800.
ZCash (ZEC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ZEC/BTC 3-day linear chart
ZEC/BTC continues to chop around in a technical dead zone on a mix of both very bearish and very bullish candle formations while market structure remains a total mess, so we’re not expecting this market to begin trending again for quite some time. The mixed moving averages and still recharging momentum oscillators also point to a challenging environment for all but the most nimble traders over the shorter-term, and the very large symmetrical triangle that is developing confirms this view. That said, the volume indications suggest heavy buying in this area so longer-term we’re staying bullish with targets up to the 0.010 region.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0030 for longer-term upside to the 0.0100 area.
TradingView Binance ZEC/USDT daily linear chart
ZEC/USDT hasn’t moved away from the $150 region for almost a week as price remains trapped between the 100 SMA overhead and the 200 SMA below the market while price action is erratic and short to medium-term market structure remains broken, so we’re expecting more consolidation in this area until further notice. Having said that, the momentum oscillators are recharged and slowly improving and the volume indications suggest more buying than selling recently so while we think the sideways conditions persist for a while we’re also still quite bullish from a longer-term point of view.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $130 for upside to the $300 area.
Decred (DCR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance DCR/BTC 3-day linear chart
Following a textbook retest of resistance turned support over the past few weeks DCR/BTC proceeded to shoot up to new cycle highs above 0.0040 recently thus reconfirming bullish market structure while all of the moving averages continue to pick up steam to the upside, all of which bodes very well for the bulls moving forward. The volume indications also point to a still intact longer-term bullish bias for now, although the momentum oscillators leave something to be desired and the current candle formation is a very concerning shooting star so some caution is certainly warranted over the near-term (especially if 0.0040 breaks to the downside over the coming days).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0035 for upside to the 0.0055 area.
TradingView Binance DCR/USD 3-day linear chart
DCR/USD has continued to move higher over the past several days after finding a bottom in the adjusted upper demand area rising above the still bullish 50 SMA where price remains coming into this week and month, so things are looking better for the bulls than they did last week. The still rising longer-term moving averages, the almost recharged momentum oscillators, and the very encouraging volume indications are also good signs for the bulls moving forward, however a bearish candle formation to start this week and heavy overhead technical and historical resistance will likely keep a lid on price over the shorter-term so we’ll stay patient for the time being.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $120 for upside to the $200 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!