Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(May 30 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Now that we’re right in the middle of the Memorial Day holiday in the US it comes as no surprise that newsflow is practically nonexistent and price action remains choppy and directionless, which we think will continue over the near-term. The technicals also aren’t much help when it comes to determining medium-term directionality given still highly uncertain charts on all timeframes, hence we’ll stay neutral and cautious at least until the weekend is over.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll start with a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term technicals where we can see that the symmetrical triangle remains intact at this time which means that shorter-term market structure remains very unstable while medium-term structure is still bearish as well, so the bulls still have their work cut out for them over the coming days. The bearish candle formation today, the not yet recharged momentum oscillators, and the falling moving averages also suggest that the bearish bias discussed on Friday remains intact for now, however the volume indications are still suggesting that buys in the low-$30k’s remain a good longer-term play so we’ll stick with that strategy over the next few days.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
We also want to look at the weekly chart before the weekly close later today where we can see that price is still finding support at the top of the OTE long zone thus keeping longer-term market structure intact while the moving averages continue to move to the upside, so the bulls still have an advantage from a longer-term perspective. Having said that, shorter-term market structure is very heavy, the current candle formation is quite bearish, the A/D line is rolling over, and the momentum oscillators still have some recharging to do, so we’re preparing for a final washout into the $20k’s before a resumption of the longer-term uptrend (even though the bottom could already be in, hence we’re still nibbling on the way down).
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $32,000 for shorter-term upside to the $42,000 area. Longer-term target resides around $100,000.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC weekly linear chart
XMR/BTC bulls got very good news over the past 24 hours regarding atomic swaps which sent price briefly soaring back into the 0.0080’s, although the party was short-lived as sellers moved into take advantage of the elevated prices in a highly uncertain and volatile market which tells us that we’re not ready to move out of the ~0.0050 – 0.0080 trading range defined by the yellow and green horizontal lines. The fact that the shorter-term moving averages are flatlining around price while the volume indications stagnate and the momentum oscillators remain suboptimal also point to generally directionless conditions moving forward, so patience is necessary over the coming weeks despite our still bullish longer-term outlook.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0060 for upside to 0.0080. Longer-term target resides in the 0.0120 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
XMR/USD continues to find support above the $200 level due to the support confluence below the market consisting of the upper demand area, OTE long zone, 50 SMA, and medium-term uptrend line, all of which we expect to continue to hold for the foreseeable future. The rising longer-term moving averages also suggest that the overall bias is still higher for 2021, although like many majors we think a month or two of consolidation within a range, in this case in the ~$200 – $400 area, is likely (and healthy) moving forward.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $200 for upside to the $400 area. Longer-term target resides in the $800 area.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC weekly linear chart
ETH/BTC continues to tread water inside of the triangle/pennant pattern on mostly bearish candle formations while the momentum oscillators remain stretched to the upside despite a few weeks of consolidation, so we’re staying firmly neutral until more clarity emerges on the charts. The still falling 200 SMA and the rising shorter-term moving averages are also complicating the situation, hence we think more choppy action with a slight downward bias is likely over the shorter-term, however favorable medium-term market structure and encouraging volume indications are keeping us bullish longer-term.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.050 for longer-term upside to the 0.100 area.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD weekly linear chart
ETH/USD continues to look quite good compared to many other alt/USD pairs considering that market structure remains intact on all relevant timeframes while the moving averages all continue to pick up steam to the upside, so the longer-term outlook remains favorable for the bulls in general. The fact that price is finding buyers in the support confluence below $2000 is also a good sign for the bulls moving forward, although the A/D line is rolling over, the momentum oscillators have a lot more recharging to do, and the current weekly candle formation is discouraging to say the least, so we’re expecting the challenging environment to persist for awhile as the ~$2000 – $4000 region is properly explored.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $2000 for upside to the $5000 area.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC 3-day linear chart
We’ll wrap up with a look at ARRR and we can see on the BTC pair that price is still trading inside of the falling wedge pattern that we identified last week, and remains inside of the OTE long zone as well, all while the moving averages continue to rise, so we still think that the longer-term outlook remains favorable for the bulls moving forward. The almost recharged RSI, the still bullishly divergent MACD, and an OBV reading that suggests profit taking but not wholesale selling also point to an intact longer-term uptrend, however there is quite a bit of room left to chop around within the wedge so we’re expecting more consolidation in this region until further notice.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.000090 for upside to the 0.00025 area.
CoinTradePro CoinPaprika ARRR/USD 3-day linear chart
ARRR/USD remains in a sharp downtrend following the parabolic rise last month, which we continue to think is a healthy devel0pment from a longer-term perspective given still favorable fundamentals, although the recent pain is likely to persist over the shorter-term due to firmly bearish market structure and a still weak RSI. Having said that, the rising longer-term moving averages, bullishly divergent MACD, and a surprisingly steady OBV reading all suggest that we should still be accumulating on dips into support which remains the play moving forward.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $4 for shorter-term upside to the $8 area. Longer-term target resides around $25.
Good Luck, Good Trading!