Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(may 18 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
The cross currents are many in the bitcoin markets early this week as more Elon Musk/Tesla news over the weekend led to additional weakness yesterday that has been reinforced by the obligatory “China bans bitcoin” headline FUD earlier today, all while the technicals remain very weak from a short to medium-term perspective, therefore lower prices look likely over the coming days. Conversely, Michael Saylor has started buying again making a 223 BTC purchase at an average cost of ~$43k, so we still think we’re getting close to an area that will act as longer-term support and as well as a base for either a large bounce or a resumption of the bull market.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Given the breakdown to new lows over the past several days the shorter-term charts aren’t much help so we’ll stay zoomed out to the daily chart today where we can see that price is reacting to the top of the upper demand area and the upper OTE long zone while the 200 SMA continues to rise, and the momentum oscillators are very close to recharged, so we think we’re flirting an area that is buyable moving forward. That said, the candle formations coming off of the top of the support zone are still quite bearish and shorter-term market structure remains quite discouraging, so it looks like there is a bit more room to run to the downside before a sustainable bottom is likely ($38k – $42k).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
We’ll also stick with the weekly chart today for a view of the longer-term setup where we can see that there has been a bounce out of the demand area/OTE long zone over the past 24 hours that is giving the bulls some hope that this weekly candle can turn bullish, which is possible even if we head down below $40k before the weekly close. The still rising moving averages and relatively bullish volume indications also suggest that the bulls have a good chance to save the bull market over the next week or two, although increasingly bearish market structure and still recharging momentum oscillators are something they will have to contend with. Ultimately, we think this $38 – $42 area holds, but if not then $20k’s are likely before we can start a new cycle.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $42,000 for shorter-term upside to the $52,000 area. Longer-term target resides around $100,000.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
XMR/BTC
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
It has been disappointing to see XMR/BTC move lower along with BTC/USD over the past few days given what was a nice market structure setup coming into this week, although the bulls are still in a fairly good position considering that a flag appears to be forming above previous resistance while the shorter-term moving averages continue to rise and the 200 SMA continues to flatten. It’s also good to see the A/D line stay relatively stable while exchange volumes decrease, hence we remain quite bullish longer-term, however the momentum oscillators still have a long way to go before being fully recharged so we expect to see a lot of choppy consolidation between 0.0075 – 0.0085 over the coming days (and likely few weeks).
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0080 for upside to 0.0100. Longer-term target remains in the 0.0200 area.
XMR/USD
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
Now that XMR/USD is back in the mid-$300’s as expected things are starting to look a bit more encouraging considering that price is reacting to the top of the upper demand area while the longer-term moving averages remain supportive and the volume indications remain favorable overall. The almost recharged momentum oscillators are also some promising signs for the bulls moving forward, however shorter-term market structure remains broken, recent candle formations leave something to be desired, and support is fairly thin down to the $300 region which is where we think the buyers step return en masse.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $350 for upside to the $600 area. Longer-term target resides in the $800 area.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) Technical Analysis & Outlook
BSV/BTC
TradingView Huobi BSV/BTC daily linear chart
We’ll zoom into BSV/BTC today as it remains one of the best technical setups we can find right now due to the large symmetrical triangle that is forming just below resistance while market structure continues to improve substantially and the shorter-term moving averages accelerate to the upside. We also like the fact that price is consolidating above the 200 SMA which is slowly flattening out after years of falling while the momentum and volume indications remain favorable overall so we think the play is to continue to accumulate below 0.0070 before a move up to and above the top of the triangle over the next few weeks.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0070 for upside to the 0.0100 area.
BSV/USD
TradingView Huobi BSV/USDT daily linear chart
Following a breakdown out of the triangle over the weekend that sent price to new regional lows in the $250 area, support has been found right where it should between the still rising 50 and 100 SMA’s and at previous yearly resistance turned support all while the OTE long zone resides in this area too, so there’s a good chance that price is trying to find a bottom in this region. That said, the broken triangle and 50 SMA have acted as resistance recently so we’ll either see more consolidation in this $250 – $300 range over the near-term or we spike lower for a final washout into the low-$200’s (which is a great buying opportunity).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $260 for upside to the $400 area.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
ARRR/BTC
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
ARRR/BTC continues to consolidate just above OTE long zone support within what appears to be a triangle/pennant that is keeping shorter-term market structure intact while the moving averages continue to rise, all of which is good news for the bulls moving forward to be sure. The steady OBV reading and the MACD being pinned at its zeroline are also positive signs for the bulls, however RSI is not even close to recharged so we think we’ll be stuck around this 0.00015 level for at least a few more days.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00013 for upside to the 0.00025 area.
ARRR/USD
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika ARRR/USD daily linear chart
While it’s certainly not great for the ARRR/USD bulls that price has broken down out of a symmetrical triangle today on a bearish candle formation that is putting pressure on market structure, the rising moving averages and increasingly favorable momentum and volume indications suggest that we’re getting close to a bottom of some kind. The fact that there is a demand area just below the market that is inside of a higher timeframe OTE long zone is also good news for the bulls, so we’ll still be buyers in the $4 – $6 area when given the chance.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $6 for upside to the $13 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!