Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(May 11 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Indeed the bitcoin markets sold off yesterday as expected swiftly pushing down to a local low of $53,500 where a wave of derivatives liquidations was able to put a floor under the market, and since then price has been slowly but steadily rising back into the high-$50k’s on improving technicals so things are generally back to neutral for now. It has helped that we’re finally getting some good news once again in the form of Palantir accepting BTC as payment and investigating it as a balance sheet opportunity, as well as more positive comments from hedge fund legend Stan Druckenmiller, although we continue to think that the broad consolidation remains intact and is likely to stay with us for another week or two.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll start by revisiting a zoomed in version of the 6-hour chart from yesterday where we can see that price capitulated down into the upper demand area not long after our previous update was released but support was quickly found at $53,500 thus creating another slightly higher low which is keeping near-term market structure slightly bullish while the candle formations begin to come in more favorably, so the bulls’ position is certainly better today than is was 24 hours ago. The fact that the momentum oscillators got a bit of a recharge while the volume indications remain highly encouraging is also good news for the bulls moving forward, although we need to see a close above the 50 and 200 SMA’s at $57k in order to keep the current rally going, and ultimately $60k has to be convincingly broken to the upside before we’ll start talking about the next phase of the bull market.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll also take another look at the daily chart as it remains the best view of the medium-term setup where we can see that price broke down out of the rising wedge that we drew yesterday in short order leading to a bearish candle formation and a test of the rising 50 SMA, although support was able to hold thus keeping market structure intact so there wasn’t any real sustainable damage done by the selloff. That said, the fact that nothing has really changed regarding the momentum and volume indications or the moving averages means we see no reason to change our forecast for more choppy consolidation in the $50k’s over the next few weeks.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $53,000 for upside to the $73,000 area. Longer-term target resides around $100,000.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
We’ll zoom into the XMR/BTC daily chart today where we can see that price is still riding the upper triangle trendline to the downside which is not great for near-term market structure, so we’ll stay cautious over the coming days, however still bullish longer-term structure, rising shorter-term moving averages, and a confirmed golden cross suggest that the outlook remains favorable for the bulls overall. While we are expecting more consolidation around the 0.0080 level over the shorter-term in order to recharge momentum, we think this is a great time to accumulate for longer-term upside when the bull market resumes.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0080 for upside to 0.0100. Longer-term target remains in the 0.0200 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD has moved down into the OTE long zone a few times over the past 24 hours and both times price was rejected back to the upside, and today this action has sparked a bullish reversal candle while market structure remains intact so we’re staying positive on the market overall moving forward. The rising moving averages and favorable volume indications also suggest that the bulls are still in control longer-term, however momentum remains stretched to the upside for the time being so we’re expecting at least a few more days of consolidation before price begins to trend higher again.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $440 for upside to the $600 area. Longer-term target has been adjusted up to the $800 area.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Huobi BSV/BTC daily linear chart
With BCH/BTC at levels not seen in almost a year, BSV/BTC has some catching up to do and the technicals are still suggesting that higher prices are very likely over the next few months as price is forming a bullish pennant/triangle on improving shorter-term market structure and volume indications that suggest the bulls are still far more active than the bears right now, all of which bodes well for more upside moving forward. The fact that price is staying above the 200 SMA while the shorter-term moving averages pick up steam to the upside is also good news for the bulls overall, however the momentum oscillators leave something to be desired and the triangle apex runs into June so we think there is some time to accumulate on dips before another breakout materializes.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0060 for upside to the 0.010 area.
TradingView OKex BSV/USDT weekly linear chart
BSV/USDT is still struggling with the all-time high supply area like it has been for the past month within what appears to be a pennant/triangle pattern while longer-term market structure continues to look more bullish overall, so the path of least resistance is still to the upside moving forward. The rising moving averages and favorable momentum oscillators also point to a longer-term upward bias, although the volume indications remain a big concern for long-term sustainability so we’ll be eager to take some profits around the $550 level (in between the 123.6% and 138.2% Fibonacci extension levels).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $300 for upside to the $550 area.
Litecoin (LTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance LTC/BTC monthly linear chart
There’s been a lot of trader chatter regarding LTC recently so we’ll zoom out to the monthly chart of the BTC pair to see where things stand from a long-term technical perspective and right now price is sitting just below a key historical resistance line while the 50 SMA continues to slowly trend lower and the volume indications leave something to be desired, so we would not be surprised to see this pause in the 0.0060’s continue over the next few weeks. Having said that, the longer-term accumulation pattern in the all-time low demand area supports the idea of much higher prices down the road, as do the rapidly improving momentum oscillators, so once price is able to close above 0.0080 there is blue sky up into the OTE short zone in the mid-0.010’s.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0060 for upside to the 0.0140 area.
TradingView Coinbase LTC/USD daily linear chart
LTC/USD has been been on the move higher over the past month reaching a new cycle high of $413 yesterday, which just so happens to be where the 1.618% Fibonacci extension level resides so it’s no surprise that we’re seeing some pushback from the bears above $400, something we expect to continue over the shorter-term due to the still extended momentum oscillators. That said, the rising moving averages, favorable volume indications, and firmly bullish market structure situation all suggest that higher prices likely over the medium-term hence we’ll try to buy this dip for targets in the $500 region.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $340 for upside to the $500 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!