Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(May 10 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
With little in the way of news over the past few days and a technical setup that leaves something to be desired it comes as no surprise that the bitcoin markets have languished in the $50k’s as anticipated, a trend that we expect to continue over the shorter-term. This choppy, sideways action has allowed many altcoins to have their day in the sun, another trend that we expect to continue for an additional week or two, although once bitcoin crosses the $60k level again in the not too distant future it will be time to rotate back into big daddy BTC.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll start this mid-May week by zooming into the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term technicals where we can see that there were two more rallies up into the OTE short zone over the weekend, both of which were rejected just like the previous three, and now price is back down at the 50/200 SMA confluence around $57k while market structure remains highly uncertain, all of which points to more directionless action in the $50k’s over the near-term. The falling 100 SMA, the recharging momentum oscillators, and the slight deterioration in the volume indications also point to a directionally challenged market moving forward but also with a slight bearish bias over the next few days.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next up is the daily chart where we can see that the rejection out of the OTE short zone over the past 24 hours has turned the current candle formation quite bearish while price forms a bearish rising wedge and shorter-term market structure remains worrisome overall, so it does look like a slight negative bias is developing for this week. The lackluster momentum oscillators and unimpressive exchange volumes also suggest that we’re likely to see a slight downward tendency over the near-term, although the still supportive moving averages and steady A/D line tell us that this is still just bullish consolidation before more upside down the road.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $53,000 for upside to the $73,000 area. Longer-term target resides around $100,000.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC is still backing and filling the space between the top of the broken triangle below the market and the bottom of the OTE short zone above it, which we think is a positive development that likely leads to more upside in the not too distant future. The rising shorter-term moving averages, the recent Golden Cross (when the 50 SMA crosses above the 200 SMA), and the steady volume indications also suggest that the bias is still to the upside overall, however overbought momentum oscillators could easily keep price below 0.0090 for a week or two while BTC continues to consolidate as well.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0080 for upside to 0.0100. Longer-term target remains in the 0.0200 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD continues to tread water below $500 within what appears to be a triangle/pennant pattern on mixed candle formations, recharging momentum oscillators, and slightly deteriorating volume indications, therefore we think more of the same is likely over the shorter-term. That said, all of the moving averages continue to pick up steam to the upside, market structure remains firmly bullish overall, and the pennant is typically a favorable pattern for the bulls (especially following new highs), which is why we think this is simply a pause before the bull market continues well above $500.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $450 for upside to the $600 area. Longer-term target has been adjusted up to the $800 area.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
ETH/BTC continues to push higher moving well above the 0.070 level today on a firmly bullish daily candle formation that is keeping market structure firmly intact while the moving averages all head higher and the A/D line accelerates to the upside, all of which is very good news for the bulls moving forward. Our only concerns are the officially overbought momentum oscillators and the OTE short zone just overhead so we would not be surprised to see a test of sub-0.070 levels before price heads up to our 0.0080 short-term target.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.070 for upside to the 0.080 area. Longer-term target resides around 0.10.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD is now above $4000 as the bull market rages on unabated thus sparking another bullish candle formation today that is keeping market structure firmly in the bull camp while the moving averages continue to rise and the volume indications fully support the rally, all of which bodes well for the bulls moving forward. Having said that, the momentum oscillators are in need of a recharge, the 400% Fibonacci extension level is just overhead, and price is starting to go truly parabolic, so we think it would be healthy for the market to pause and consolidate for a while before heading up to our $5000 target.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $4000 for upside to the $5000 area.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
In an unexpected show of strength on the part of the ARRR/BTC bulls price is once again moving swiftly to the upside off of the regional lows that surprisingly came above 0.00010 over the past few weeks thus sparking a large and firmly bullish candle formation that has already turned near-term market structure back to bullish, all very good news for the bulls moving forward. The still rising moving averages, improving momentum oscillators, and stabilizing volume indications also suggest that the bulls are back in control for now, although we expect some volatility around 0.00020 and for the bears to get active again around 0.00025 so that’s where we would take some profits if given the opportunity.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00014 for upside to the 0.00025 area.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika ARRR/USD daily linear chart
ARRR/USD is back on the move again following a few weeks of healthy consolidation around the $6 level on a firmly bullish candle formation that has turned near-term market structure bullish once again while all of the moving averages continue to steadily trend higher, all of which bodes well for the bulls moving forward. The favorable momentum oscillators also point to a near-term bullish bias, although we expect some turbulence around the $10 mark and a potential bull trap top around $13 which is where we would take profits if given the chance.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $8 for upside to the $13 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!