Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(May 8 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
The bitcoin markets have been slowly drifting to the upside over the past few days reaching a new regional high of $59,501 earlier today, which comes as no surprise given our call for a move up to the $60k region this weekend before sellers return to keep price in the broader consolidation range heading into next week. The recent strength has been driven in part by favorable shorter-term technicals, as well as news that Bridgewater Associates’ (the world’s largest hedge fund) CFO has left for a similar position at bitcoin firm NYDIG, although we still don’t think there is enough juice to tip the scales in favor of the bulls at this time so we expect persistent resistance up into the low-$60k’s (where we think another top materializes).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We start by returning to the daily chart where we can see that price has once again spiked up into the OTE short zone and once again a rejection is materializing that has turned the current candle formation fairly bearish while market structure remains uncertain overall, so it looks like our call for more consolidation with a slight near-term upward bias is still on track for the time being. The rising longer-term moving averages, the steady volume indications, and the favorable momentum oscillators also suggest that the long-term outlook remains firmly in the bull camp, however another close below $58k today would be a bad sign for the bulls heading into next week so we’ll closely watch how the daily candle closes in about 6 hours.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
We’ll also take another look at the weekly chart for a view of the longer-term technicals where we can see that price is moving up towards the top of the channel right now on a bullish candle formation that is helping shorter-term market structure while the moving averages continue to pick up steam to the upside, so the near-term outlook remains favorable to the bulls. Having said that, momentum remains a concern and resistance gets much heavier as we approach the top of the channel around $62k so we’re expecting a local (or even regional) top in the $60 – $62k area over the coming days that likely sets up one of the final “buy the dip” opportunity before we see new all-time highs over the summer.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $53,000 for upside to the $73,000 area. Longer-term target resides around $100,000.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC wasted little time in breaking out from the consolidation pattern that we discussed in the CMU video on Thursday leading to a large spike up into the OTE short zone in the 0.0080’s that was unfortunately quickly rejected back to the downside thus sparking a bearish candle formation yesterday despite a shift to bullish medium-term market structure, all telling us to stay positive longer-term but patient short-term. The rising shorter-term moving averages and reversing 200 SMA confirm that our bias should stay generally bullish moving forward, although the extended momentum oscillators and lackluster volume indications point to some sideways action around the 0.0080 area over the shorter-term before a run at the 0.010 target.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0070 for upside to 0.0100. Longer-term target remains in the 0.0200 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD had a great run to the upside over the past few days reaching a new all-time high of $518 thus confirming a shift to bullish longer-term market structure on a huge volume breakout, so the bulls have taken control of the market from a long-term perspective, which is being confirmed by the steadily rising moving averages below the market. That said, the recent rejection out of the OTE short zone has sparked some bearish candle formations while the momentum oscillators are bearishly divergent and the A/D line has taken a bit of a hit, so price will probably need to successfully retest sub-$440 levels before attempting new highs again.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $440 for upside to the $600 area. Longer-term target has been adjusted up to the $800 area.
Ethereum Classic (ETC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Bitfinex ETC/BTC weekly linear chart
Following a break above the shorter-term moving averages last month and a subsequent bullish consolidation above 0.00050, ETC/BTC has exploded to the upside recently breaking the 200 SMA on the way to the lower supply area and OTE short zone, a move that has turned market structure bullish and has helped the volume indications improve. We also like the fact that MACD is just now starting to accelerate while Willy remains below overbought territory, so we think there has been a shift into a longer-term bullish regime, however the rejection out of the resistance area around 0.0030 has turned the current weekly candle formation fairly bearish so we’re expecting some consolidation between ~0.0015 – 0.0025 for a while before the bulls try to sustainably break 0.0030.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0015 for upside to the 0.0040 area.
TradingView Bitfinex ETC/USD daily linear chart
ETC/USD skyrocketed to the upside this week following a few weeks of swift but steady buying, a move that has been supported by the A/D line and the momentum oscillators, however said oscillators are just now coming down out of overbought territory with plenty of room to run lower and we do have a fairly big bearish volume divergence materializing. All this while price is correcting to the downside tells us that a test of sub-$100 levels is necessary in order to give the bulls the confidence (and market structure setup) to keep this bull market going longer-term.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $80 for upside to the $200 area.
Aeon (AEON) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Bittrex AEON/BTC 3-day linear chart
AEON/BTC had a great run to the upside over the past month or so rallying all the way up to the 0.000055 level a few weeks ago before starting to correct recently, a correction that has continued into this week on a firmly bearish candle formation that has broken near-term market structure and is setting the market up for more downside over the shorter-term, certainly not great news for the bulls moving forward. The recharging momentum oscillators also suggest that lower prices are likely before the bulls return in earnest, although the favorable volume indications, rising 50 SMA, reversing longer-term moving averages, and support confluence around 0.000020 all tell us to buy a dip into that region if given the opportunity over the coming days/weeks.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.000020 for upside to the 0.000080 area.
TradingView Bittrex AEON/USD 3-day linear chart
After spiking up to new all-time highs above $3 a few weeks ago, AEON/USD has since been pulling back to the downside on some bearish weekly candle formations that have broken near-term market structure while the momentum oscillators just begin to come down out of overbought territory, all suggesting some challenging times ahead for the bulls (at least over the coming days). The fact that historical and technical supports are practically nonexistent above the $2 mark is not helping matters for the bulls either, hence we think a retracement down to the $1.50 – $1.80 area is likely before price begins to stabilize and find a sustainable bottom.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $1.80 for upside to the $3.00 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!