Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(May 4 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
As we get into this first week of May the bitcoin markets aren’t looking all that great as price has been selling off over the past 24 hours moving all the way back down to the $53k area on weakening short-term technicals and a lack of positive newsflow, at least relative to the past few months. It’s also not helping BTC that Ethereum has been ripping to the upside thus sucking all of the air out of the room for other cryptos, which we will get to below, however we think ETH is due for some mean reversion while bitcoin gets close to another local bottom given that taproot is finally gaining some steam with the miners so we think downside is limited for the time being.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
Let’s begin with a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term technicals where we can see that things remain messy overall considering that a few higher regional highs over the past few days turned near-term market structure briefly bullish, although the move back to the downside recently is keeping medium-term structure firmly bearish while the still falling longer-term moving averages now act as resistance, so the bears have certainly gained some traction as we begin this month. The still recharging momentum oscillators and the slight tick lower in the A/D line are also suggesting that the environment is likely to stay challenging for the bulls over the short-term, however the rising 50 SMA and the upper demand area are providing some support for the time being and the momentum and volume indications actually still look fairly good from a longer-term perspective, so we think this is yet another dip that will end up being a great buying opportunity down the road.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next we want to return to the daily chart to see where the medium-term technicals stand following the recent volatility and for now the bulls are in a difficult position considering that a nasty shooting star candle printed yesterday that has been followed up by a firmly bearish candle today that is close to turning near-term market structure bearish once again. The fact that the momentum oscillators are rolling back over and have yet to actually touch oversold territory is also not great news for the bulls over the shorter-term, however the volume indications remain encouraging, 200 SMA continues to rise, and the 100 SMA is sitting just below the top of the upper demand area in the mid-$51k’s which we think would be a perfect spot for a bounce/bottom.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $52,000 for longer-term upside to the $73,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
Unfortunately for the XMR/BTC bulls price broke down out of the triangle/pennant over the weekend thus turning near-term market structure heavier while the momentum oscillators have begun to trend lower with lots of room to run before being even partially recharged, all of which will postpone the upside breakout that we’ve been expecting soon. Having said that, downside follow-through after the break of the triangle has been anemic and the volume indications have barely taken a hit, all while the shorter-term moving averages continue to pick up steam to the upside, therefore we’re still anticipating a sustainable rally above 0.0080 but perhaps not for another week or two.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0070 for upside to 0.0100. Longer-term target remains in the 0.0200 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD is back below the $400 level today on a firmly bearish candle formation that is making near-term market structure quite concerning given a lack of technical or historical support around current levels while the momentum oscillators still have a lot of recharging to do to set the market up for a continuation of the bull market to new all-time highs, so we’re now fairly cautious on this one over the near-term. That said, the moving averages all continue to rise, the volume indications suggest that this dip is being bought, and there is triangle support around the $370 level which we think is a great longer-term buying opportunity.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $400 for upside to the $600 area. Longer-term target has been adjusted up to the $800 area.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
ETH/BTC has been on an absolute tear to the upside over the past 48 hours rallying all the way up to the 0.064 region before hitting some Fibonacci resistance in the form of the 200% extension levels which has sparked a long-legged doji candle signaling some near-term indecision, so we expect some consolidation over the next few days. The overbought momentum oscillators support the idea of at least a near-term pause in the uptrend, although intact market structure, the rising moving averages, and the incredibly encouraging volume indications all point to even more upside once some backing and filling has rebalanced the market (perhaps down to the 0.050 area which would be a fantastic spot to rebuy for the next leg higher).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.055 for upside to the 0.070 area.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD has had an insane run higher recently moving from the low-$2000’s in late April all the way up to the $3500 region over the past couple of days on generally very bullish candle formations that have firmed up bullish longer-term market structure while the moving averages begin to accelerate even more to the upside, so the bulls are certainly in full control of this market overall. The volume indications also support this view, hence our revised $4000 target, however the momentum oscillators are overbought and today’s candle formation leaves something to be desired so we’re expecting some choppy sideways action between ~$3000 – $3500 before another leg up to new ATHs materializes.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $3000 for upside to the $4000 area.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
ARRR/BTC remains under selling pressure as we begin the month of May which comes as no surprise given the pace and magnitude of the parabolic rally last month, and given the state of the momentum indicators we think there is still more consolidation/ downside to go before we find a sustainable regional low. Having said that, the fact that price is still finding some support in the OTE long zone while the moving averages continue to rise and OBV remains surprisingly strong is telling us that we’re getting close to a bottom in terms of price (but perhaps not yet in terms of time meaning sideways action before a resumption of the bull market).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00010 for upside to the 0.00025 area.
TradingView HitBTC ARRR/USD daily linear chart. (NOTE: HitBTC is being used for analytical purposes only. Please avoid trading on this exchange due to reports of funds being frozen without explanation & invasive KYC demands)
ARRR/USD is now back above the OTE long zone despite some downside volatility during today’s session which is good news for the bulls moving forward as market structure continues to improve, and the still rising moving averages remain supportive of a longer-term bull market that is simply pausing to refresh before the uptrend resumes. The fact that the momentum oscillators continue to steadily recharge while the volume indications remain bullish is also a sign that the longer-term outlook remains favorable for the bulls, however we also think it could take quite a while before the all-time highs are taken out so we’re preparing for an extended and volatile consolidation between ~5 – 15 $ for the foreseeable future.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $5 for upside to the $15 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!