Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(May 1 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
With little in the way of positive news for BTC over the past few days and the negative technical setups that were discussed coming into this weekend, we are quite surprised by the upside price action since the CMU video on Thursday. At that time, the charts looked very heavy and were poised for a retest of the $50k area, however the options roll-off that we previously mentioned actually did end up having a favorable impact on the market which has for the most part continued over the past 36 hours. That said, the action has softened a bit over the past few hours so perhaps our call for a weekend of consolidation is now starting to materialize (albeit at higher levels than previously anticipated).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We start this final update of the week with a look at the daily chart where we can see that the rally into the high-$50k’s yesterday came on a firmly bullish candle formation that broke above the 50 SMA and confirmed a shift back to bullish near-term market structure while the longer-term moving averages continue to trend higher, all good news for the bulls moving forward. The favorable momentum and volume indications should also help the bull case over the course of the next week or two, however price is already starting to struggle with the OTE short zone overhead and there is supply area resistance just above that so the bulls have a lot of work to do from here on out hence our call for some near-term sideways action below $60k.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD monthly log chart
We’ll start the new month by looking at the log chart as well where we can see that the April candle ended up printing red and was a textbook doji, which typically signals indecision, but as previously discussed is likely to be bullish in a cyclical uptrend given BTC’s history so we’re not nearly as worried about this as we were for the bulk of last month. Still intact market structure, favorable volume indications, and rising moving averages also support the idea that the longer-term bull market is far from over, however momentum is very overbought so we’re still not ruling out a month or two of choppy sideways action between ~$40k – $60k before the major uptrend resumes to new all-time highs.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $50,000 for longer-term upside to the $73,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC continues to consolidate around the bottom of the lower supply area within what appears to be a symmetrical triangle/bullish pennant that is coiling for a breakout to the upside in the not too distant future, which is certainly good news for the bulls. The rising shorter-term moving averages, intact market structure, and favorable volume indications also support the idea of higher prices following this stagnant period, however momentum remains a concern and the apex of the triangle extends out to May 8th so some near-term patience is warranted despite the increasingly bullish setup.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0072 for upside to 0.0100. Longer-term target remains in the 0.0200 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD is on the verge of hitting new highs today on still favorable volume indications and supportive moving averages, so we think a breakout materializes in the near future. Having said that, the momentum oscillators remain stretched to the upside and there is some pushback on the part of the bears here in the $400’s so a few days of chop would not surprise us before the bulls take full control on the way to $500.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $400 for upside to the $500 area. Longer-term target has been adjusted up to the $800 area.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Bittrex ETH/BTC daily linear chart
ETH/BTC continued its run to the upside yesterday hitting a new regional high of 0.0519 before reversing at the 138.2% Fibonacci extension level thus leading to the pullback that has materialized over the past few days, a pullback that has already been bought and appears to be close to over. The rising moving averages and still very favorable volume indications support the idea that more upside is coming soon, although momentum remains worrisome for the time being so we think there is likely to be a day or two of consolidation around 0.050 before the bulls get aggressive once again.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.048 for upside to the 0.057 area.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD has blasted above the 200% Fibonacci extension level today on a firmly bullish candle formation that has confirmed still bullish market structure while all of the moving averages continue to rise and the volume indications remain supportive of the move higher, so the bulls are in full control of the market right now. The fact that the momentum oscillators are not yet overbought but continue to trend to the upside is also good news for the bulls moving forward, therefore we’re sticking with our $3k target until further notice.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $2600 for upside to the $3000 area.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Huobi BSV/BTC daily linear chart
With BCH looking ready for a big move to the upside soon, we also wanted to glance at BSV which also looks very good overall considering that the BTC pair is currently moving to the upside after establishing a legitimate higher low last week thus confirming a shift to bullish medium-term market structure while the shorter-term moving averages continue to reverse their long-term downtrend lines, all very good news for the bulls moving forward. The improving volume indications and favorable momentum oscillators also suggest a bullish bias moving forward, although the falling 200 SMA around 0.0065 will likely cause problems for the bulls over the shorter-term so we expect a pullback in that region before more upside later in the year.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0055 for upside to the 0.0065 area.
TradingView OKex BSV/USDT weekly linear chart
Around the beginning of last month BSV/USDT broke out from the unorthodox bullish pennant pattern thus sparking a rapid spike up into and briefly above the all-time high supply area thus turning longer-term market structure much more favorable while all of the moving averages continue to rise, all of which is very good news for the bulls moving forward. The momentum oscillators are also in prime position to assist the bulls in pushing price higher in general, however the still very lackluster volume indications are a big concern longer-term and shorter-term the market looks poised for more consolidation below $400 so we want to play this one fairly strategically so as not to get caught offsides if/when conditions change.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $250 for upside to the $400 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!