Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(April 27 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
The bitcoin markets have continued to grind to the upside over the past 24 hours following the strong rally we saw off of the lows coming out of the weekend which has helped both the medium and long-term technicals, and the fundamentals are still supportive of generally higher prices as well with news of yet another bank getting involved in the space, so our bias is still to the upside once this consolidation period has run its course. Having said that, the short-term technicals are already starting to get extended and resistance is quite stiff up to the $57k level which tells us that the bulls are unlikely to break $57,600 over the coming days hence we’ll stay neutral over the near-term.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll begin with a look at the daily chart for a view of the medium-term setup where we can see that price is moving higher again today on another bullish candle formation that is helping short-term market structure while the moving averages continue to rise and the momentum and volume indications remain encouraging, so the door is open for the bulls to push price up to the $57k level over the near-term. Conversely, market structure is still technically bearish and the flatlining 50 SMA overhead is likely to act as resistance around $57k so that is where we think the bears get more active thus leading to a retest of the low-$50k’s over the weekend.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
Next we want to zoom out to the weekly chart for a view of the longer-term technicals where we can see that price remains inside of the channel/flag that we drew last week while all of the moving averages continue to pick up steam to the upside and the volume indications are still supportive of the bulls, so we think the path of least resistance is higher overall. That said, the momentum oscillators still have a lot of recharging to do, short-term market structure is a mess, and the channel could easily extend into June or July while still maintaining the longer-term bullish bias, so we’re not in a rush to get aggressive either on the long side or the short side any time soon.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $50,000 for longer-term upside to the $73,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC weekly linear chart
XMR/BTC is testing sub-0.0070 levels today and so far the bulls are doing a good job of playing defense due to the shorter-term moving averages just below the market, which is good news for the bulls moving forward, as are the still very favorable momentum oscillators so we think the bias remains the upside overall moving forward. However, resistance remains heavy just overhead and the volume indications are nothing to write home about so we’re expecting some additional consolidation below 0.0080 before a breakout and run towards 0.0100.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0070 for upside to 0.0100. Longer-term target has been adjusted higher to the 0.0200 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
XMR/USD is having another relatively strong week with another bullish candle formation developing while the moving averages continue to trend higher and the volume indications remain quite favorable, so we still think that new all-time highs are likely over the medium-term. That said, the momentum oscillators are moving into overbought territory while price struggles with the ATH supply area so we think it will take a little while before the bulls are ready to push price sustainably above $480.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $350 for upside to the $475 area. Longer-term target has been adjusted up to the $800 area.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Bittrex ETH/BTC weekly linear chart
ETH/BTC has broken above the previous regional highs over the past few days on some bullish candle formations that are confirming a shift to bullish longer-term market structure while the shorter-term moving averages slowly accelerate to the upside and the volume indications remain highly supportive, so we think this is just the beginning of a markup phase. The fact that the momentum oscillators are rising with room to run also suggests higher prices moving forward, likely up into the 0.055 – 0.060 area where historical and OTE resistance will start to come into play.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.045 for upside to the 0.055 area.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD is retesting the 178.6% Fibonacci extension level today and this time around the action looks much more sustainable considering that the current candle formation is bullish thus confirming still intact bullish market structure while all of the moving averages rise and the momentum and volume indications remain supportive of higher prices, so we think it’s only a matter of time until we see a $3k handle. Having said that, there are some minor near-term bearish momentum divergences that warrant attention that could add to the volatility around current levels so we don’t expect a straight line up to the target by any means.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $2500 for upside to the $3000 area.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance BCH/BTC 3-day linear chart
Since the breakout above the long-term downtrend line earlier this month, BCH/BTC has been quietly consolidating above previous resistance in bullish fashion on favorable short-term market structure and improving volume indications, so it looks like the market is coiling for another breakout to the upside in the not too distant future. The still supportive momentum oscillators suggest an upward bias moving forward as well, however the lower supply area and the falling 50 SMA are likely to keep the consolidation going for a while longer.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.014 for upside to the 0.022 area.
TradingView Kraken BCH/USD weekly linear chart
BCH/USD is still consolidating between supply and demand areas within what appears to be a bullish pennant pattern on still bullish short and medium-term market structure while the moving averages slowly pick up steam to the upside, so we think the path of least resistance is higher moving forward. The momentum and volume indications support this view, hence we’re expecting a rally up into the $1400 area over the next month or two, although it might take some time for the bulls to get ready for this so more consolidation appears likely over the shorter-term.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $700 for upside to the $1400 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!