Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(April 26 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Given our bearish near-term outlook on BTC late last week it came as no surprise that price moved down to new regional lows around the $47k level over the weekend, although the strength of the bounce off of those lows has been unexpected and has continued into this afternoon. News that JP Morgan will soon be offering a bitcoin fund to its clients has certainly helped the bulls over the past several hours, although the buying has stalled out for the time being so caution is warranted around current levels.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
First we’ll take a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term technicals where we can see that market structure remains a bit of a mess and price is still below all of the moving averages while the 50 and 100 SMA’s continue to move lower, so the bulls aren’t out of the woods just yet. Having said that, the fact that price never closed inside of the upper demand area is a good sign moving forward, as is the hammer candle from yesterday and the favorable momentum and volume indications, so we think there is a good chance that the lows are now in for this correction.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll also revisit the daily chart today where we can see that price briefly moved below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level yesterday before reversing back to the upside thus sparking a rather bullish candle formation that led to the swift rally higher that we’ve seen over the past 24 hours, which is all good news for the bulls heading into the month of May. The fact that the 100 SMA was able to provide enough support to stave off a breakdown is also a good sign for the bulls, as are the recharged momentum oscillators, however we need to see a convincing move above $57,600 in order to shift near-term market structure back to bullish so we’ll stay cautious until that materializes.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $50,000 for longer-term upside to the $73,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
We’ll return to the XMR/BTC daily chart today where we can see that price moved up to new cycle highs once again over the weekend thus confirming bullish short and medium-term market structure while the shorter-term moving averages continue to pick up steam and the volume indications continue to improve, all of which bodes well for the bulls moving forward. That said, price is in a supply area on overbought momentum oscillators, and yesterday’s candle formation was quite discouraging, so we expect some turbulence in the 0.0070’s before 0.0080 is sustainably broken to the upside.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0070 for upside to 0.010. Longer-term target has been adjusted higher to the 0.020 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD continues to consolidate below the $425 cycle high within what appears to be more and more like a symmetrical triangle/bullish pennant on still intact market structure while all of the moving averages remain in steady uptrends, all good news for the bulls from the slightly longer-term perspective. The encouraging volume indications also suggest a bullish bias once this consolidation period is over, although the momentum oscillators still have some recharging to do before a sustainable breakout so we’ll stay patient on this one over the near-term.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $350 for upside to the $475 area. Longer-term target has been adjusted up to the $800 area.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
The dreaded correction for ARRR/BTC is upon us as price has already crashed 50+% off of the highs from late last week over the past few days on some large bearish candle formations and recharging momentum oscillators, so the environment is likely to stay challenging for the bulls over the shorter-term. That said, the rejection out of the OTE long zone earlier today has sparked a bullish candle formation while the moving averages continue to accelerate to the upside and the volume indications remain surprisingly encouraging, so we think a local bottom is close and that dips below 0.00010000 can be bought until further notice.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00010000 for upside to the 0.00030000 area.
TradingView HitBTC ARRR/USD daily linear chart
ARRR/USD indeed topped out in the $15 – $20 range late last Friday as expected and since then has been retracing all the way back to the $6 area where support has emerged due to the top of the OTE long zone, so the parabolic rally is over but the bulls are still in decent shape. The rising moving averages, still favorable volume indications, and firmly intact market structure also suggest that the bulls remain in control overall, however we would not be surprised to see the $4 – $6 support zone tested before another move higher materializes.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $6 for upside to the $14 area.
ChainLink (LINK) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance LINK/BTC 3-day linear chart
LINK/BTC finally broke out of the descending channel over the past few weeks and since then has been consolidating on mixed candle formations between the rising 200 SMA below the market and the rising 100 SMA above it, which is actually helping market structure thus things are starting to look better for the bulls overall. Having said that, the momentum and volume indications leave something to be desired and historical resistance is quite stiff overhead so we think it’s going to take some more time to break the 0.00080000 level (which opens the door to 0.00100000).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00060000 for upside to the 0.00100000 area.
TradingView Kraken LINK/USD daily linear chart
Mid-month LINK/USD shot up to new highs between the 278.6% and 300% Fibonacci extension levels before beginning a multi-day contraction back down into the $30’s on mostly bearish candle formations that have put pressure on shorter-term market structure, so we want to stay cautious for the time being. That being said, price is now finding support in the upper demand area and around the 50 SMA while the other moving averages continue to rise, the momentum oscillators get close to recharged, and the volume indications support further gains down the road, so we think this pullback is close to over with a sustainable low around the $30 level and potential upside to $50.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $30 for upside to the $50 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!