Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook

(April 23 – 2021)

Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook

Apparently our rather bearish video update from Wednesday was rightfully so considering that price crashed down into $47k’s overnight thus further damaging the technicals heading into what is likely to be a turbulent weekend. This latest leg of the correction came on news that US President Joe Biden is proposing a 40%+ capital gains tax on the highest bracket which would affect large bitcoin holders that want to take profits, although we don’t think this is a long-term threat to the bull market given the low probability that such a high rate will pass both the House and the Senate. Regardless, during bearish periods the market doesn’t need much reason to sell off and for the time being it looks like the path of least resistance is still to the downside.

TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart

We’ll begin with a look at the daily chart for a view of the medium-term technicals where we can see that price has moved down into the middle of the upper demand area and the OTE long zone which is providing support to the bulls for the time being, as is the 50 SMA which is managing to keep price near the $50k level, so there is some hope for the bulls moving forward. The fact that the A/D line remains fairly steady is also a good sign for the bulls overall, as are the almost recharged momentum oscillators, however short-term market structure is now broken and the bounce off of the lows hasn’t been that convincing at all therefore we’re preparing for a continuation down to the low-$40k’s over the coming days.

TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart

Next we’ll look at the weekly chart to see where the longer-term technicals stand and for now the flag/channel that we drew in yesterday’s video seems to be holding up despite the action within the formation being quite messy, which overall is decent news for the bulls. The still rising moving averages and steady volume indications are also suggesting that the long-term bull market is not yet in jeopardy, however the momentum oscillators still have a lot of recharging to do so if the weekly candle closes outside of the channel (below ~$49k) then the next area of interest will be the medium-term OTE long zone between ~$36k – $42k (which would be an incredibly buying opportunity in our opinion).

Trade Idea: Buy dips below $42,000 for longer-term upside to the $73,000 area.

Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook

XMR/BTC

TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart

After tagging the bottom of the adjusted supply area a few times early in the week price has since pulled back into the 0.0060’s on weakening volume indications and still rather overbought momentum oscillators, so some additional downside over the near-term would not surprise us one bit. In fact, this would be the more bullish scenario as the support confluence just below 0.0060 would be tested and would also complete another bullish Cup & Handle continuation pattern that would likely set the stage for a move up to the very important 0.010 area.

Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0060 for upside to 0.0080. Longer-term target has been adjusted higher to the 0.020 area.

XMR/USD

TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart 

XMR/USD spiked down to the $301 level earlier today before a nice bounce materialized thus turning the current candle formation fairly bullish, which could stop the bleeding over the next day or two. However, near-term market structure has been broken, the volume indications have taken a hit, the momentum oscillators still have a lot of recharging to do, and historical and technical support is quite thin until the $280 level so we think a move below $300 is likely before this correction is all said and done.

Trade Idea: Accumulate below $300 for upside to the $460 area. Longer-term target has been adjusted up to the $800 area.

Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook

ARRR/BTC

Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily linear chart

It’s been another incredible day for the ARRR/BTC bulls with price rising all the way into the 0.00030’s on a huge and firmly bullish candle formation while volumes continue to support the move and the moving averages continue to pick up steam to the upside, so we see no signs of a top yet despite the massive move. The breakout in MACD and the accelerating OBV reading also support higher prices over the near-term, however RSI remains very overbought, price has truly gone parabolic, and the market cap is getting quite high meaning it gets tougher to push higher so swiftly so we’ll be watching closely for signs of some exhaustion over the coming days.

Trade Idea: Hold current positions for upside to the 0.00040000 area.

ARRR/USD

TradingView HitBTC ARRR/USD daily linear chart 

ARRR/USD continues its epic moonshot today rising up near the $15 level on another massive bullish candle formation on very supportive volume indications that point to even more upside while the moving averages just now begin to pick up steam, so it looks like $20 is now in the cards. Having said that, nothing can go straight up forever and the momentum oscillators are getting very stretched to the upside so taking profits between $15 and $20 makes sense in order to lock in gains before the inevitable nasty correction materializes.

Trade Idea: Buy dips below $8 for upside to the $20 area. 

Wownero (WOW) Technical Analysis & Outlook

WOW/BTC

Coinigy TradeOgre WOW/BTC daily linear chart

WOW/BTC has exploded to new all-time highs recently quickly reaching the 300% Fibonacci extension level on a large volume breakout and an acceleration in OBV while MACD confirms the move, all very good news for the bulls moving forward. On the other hand, the overbought RSI reading and the increasingly bearish 3-day candle formation are keeping us fairly cautious heading into the weekend so we’re hoping for a bit more downside in order to add to positions.

Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00002000 for upside to the 0.00005000 area.

WOW/USD

CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika WOW/USD daily linear chart 

When we zoom into the 4-hour chart of WOW/USD we can see how volatile the past 24 hours have been with price gyrating between $1 – $2 on very large and mixed candle formations that are turning near-term market structure highly uncertain while RSI continues to recharge, all suggesting more consolidation over the weekend. The falling MACD and developing triangle/pennant also point to more volatile sideways action for now, however the pennant also hints at a continuation higher once this choppy period has run its course so we think dips are an opportunity to add before new all-time highs again next week.

Trade Idea: Buy dips below $1.00 for upside to the $4.00 area.

Good Luck, Good Trading!