Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(April 20 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
We’re seeing a bit of a rally heading into the daily close following news that Venmo will begin facilitating crypto transactions much in the same way that PayPal and Cash App do now, no doubt good news for the bulls moving forward. The technicals also continue to heal on both the low and high timeframes which is increasing our confidence that the $51,541 low will hold through this turbulent period, although we also still think that more consolidation is likely below the all-time highs so we’re in no rush to get aggressive on the long side at this juncture.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We want to return to the 6-hour chart today as it remains the best view of the short-term technicals where we can see that the upper demand area once again provided support on the downdraft late yesterday and since then price has been moving higher on a few bullish candle formations that have helped near-term market structure over the past 24 hours, all fairly good signs for the bulls moving forward. The improving volume indications and still favorable momentum oscillators should also help the bulls in general, although price needs to close above the 200 SMA around current levels, as well as above the previous local high at $57,633 before we feel comfortable calling a sustainable bottom at $51,541.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll also return to the daily chart for another view of the medium-term setup where we can see that another bullish candle formation has developed today and looks poised to close as-is thus keeping longer-term market structure intact while all of the moving averages continue to move to the upside, so the bulls are still in control overall despite the recent crash. Additionally, the steady volume indications and almost recharged momentum oscillators hint at a resumption of the uptrend in the not too distant future, however we would not be surprised to see another test or two of lower levels over the course of this week before the $60k handle is retaken once again.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $53,000 for longer-term upside to the $73,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC weekly linear chart
It’s been another great day for the XMR/BTC bulls considering that price hit a regional high of 0.0075 earlier today on a bullish weekly candle formation that is helping market structure while the momentum oscillators pick up steam to the upside with room to run higher, all very good news for the bulls from a longer-term perspective. The slight uptick in the A/D line recently is also a good sign overall, however shorter-term resistance via the lower supply area, near-term OTE short zone, and falling shorter-term moving averages are likely to keep price below 0.0080 for at least a little while moving forward.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0060 for upside to 0.0080. Longer-term target has been adjusted higher to the 0.020 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
The furious rally in XMR/USD has persisted into today with price spiking well above our $400 target up into the all-time high supply area on another large and firmly bullish candle formation while all of the moving averages continue to pick up steam to the upside and the volume indications continue to improve, so we think this bull market has legs moving forward. Having said that, the almost overbought momentum oscillators and heavy historical resistance between $400 – $480 will likely make it a struggle before new all-time highs are achieved so some patience will be helpful over the next week or two.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $330 for upside to the $460 area. Longer-term target has been adjusted up to the $800 area.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
ETH/BTC is breaking out of yet another flag-style consolidation pattern on a firmly bullish candle formation that is yet again confirming that short and medium-term market structure are undeniably bullish, all of which bodes well for more upside over the coming days. The rising moving averages, very encouraging volume indications, and lack of resistance immediately overhead also support a near-term upward bias, however momentum is getting close to overbought so we expect a pullback/pause in the mid-0.040’s due to the regional supply area coming off of the February highs.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.040 for upside to the 0.044 area.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
Following a new all-time highs last week just above $2500, ETH/USD has pulled all the way back to the top of the broken triangle once again, and yet again this area is holding as support thus keeping market structure bullish overall while all of the moving averages remain in steady uptrends, so we see no reason to abandon our longer-term upward bias at this time. The bullish candle formation today and the still favorable volume indications also support the idea of a continuation of the bull market soon, although the momentum oscillators leave something to be desired so we’re not expecting new ATHs until the upcoming weekend or sometime next week.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $2200 for upside to the $3000 area.
Wownero (WOW) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre WOW/BTC daily linear chart
It didn’t take long for WOW/BTC to shoot up to new regional highs as expected on another large and volatile candle formation that has confirmed that short and medium-term market structure setups are now firmly bullish, all of which is certainly good news for the bulls moving forward. The rapidly improving OBV reading and the favorable moving averages also suggest that the bulls are now in full control overall, however price is hitting the OTE short zone while momentum becomes highly overbought so we expect some turbulence below 0.00001000 over the near-term.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00000600 for upside to the 0.00001200 area.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika WOW/USD daily linear chart
WOW/USD has blasted through the OTE and supply area resistance zones that we discussed yesterday in very short order thus reconfirming bullish longer-term market structure while the moving averages continue to pick up steam to the upside, so the longer-term outlook continues to heavily favor the bulls at this time. Having said that, bearish momentum divergences and an increasingly bearish candle formation today are turning us a bit more cautious over the near-term, especially considering that we think the BTC pair will pause for a bit while BTC/USD continues to consolidate too (meaning a greater likelihood that WOW does as well).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $0.40 for upside to the $0.70 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!