Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
A combination of bad news, rumors, and overleveraged traders resulted in a large drawdown in BTC over the weekend with prices reaching lows around $51k on a fear-induced flash crash before some stability has returned to the market over the past 24 hours. While this took us by surprise given how well the charts were holding up late last week, we don’t think it is such a bad thing given how exuberant the markets were getting in terms of sentiment, and although we might be stuck in the $50k’s for a while considering the technical damage to the market, we don’t see much more downside below $50k moving forward.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll begin this week with a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the short-term technicals following the weekend selloff and we can see that price is now below the broken ascending triangle meaning near-term market structure is now bearish, and recent price action shows that the lower triangle trendline is now acting as resistance as is the broken 200 SMA, so the bulls are certainly in a predicament over the shorter-term. The fact that the 50 SMA is now moving lower is also not great for the bulls over the coming days, however the volume indications have held up well and the momentum oscillators are almost fully recharged so we think that more consolidation in the $50k’s is more likely than another leg to the downside below the recent lows.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next we’ll look at the daily chart where we can see that price wicked down into the upper demand area yesterday and below the still rising 50 SMA, which initially acted as support but now seems to be resistance heading into the daily close, so the bulls are still on the defensive at this time. The still recharging momentum oscillators also present the bulls with a problem this week, however they are getting closer to oversold and the volume indications remain favorable overall so we think that this dip can be bought for longer-term holding even if price moves slightly lower first.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $52,000 for longer-term upside to the $73,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC weekly linear chart
XMR/BTC had a very good weekend as price moved quickly up into the 0.0060’s as expected on some bullish candle formations that confirmed both the Cup & Handle continuation pattern and a shift to bullish medium-term market structure, and today the falling 200 SMA was broken to the upside for the first time this year which is all good news for the bulls moving forward. The improving volume indications and rising shorter-term moving averages also support the idea of more upside in the not too distant future, although the lower supply area and OTE short zone just overhead are likely to keep the market consolidating over the near-term.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0055 for upside to 0.0070. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
XMR/USD pushed up to new highs over the weekend despite the volatility in BTC, although that volatility did spill over into XMR over the past few days thus sparking some very large and mixed candle formations that broke near-term market structure, so it looks like we’re setting up for some directionless consolidation for now in order to reset sentiment before the next move. The rising moving averages and favorable volume indications suggest that said next move will be higher, although the momentum oscillators have barely recharged to it could be a little while before that move materializes.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $300 for upside to the $400 area. Longer-term target resides around $500.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
ARRR/BTC continued its torrid run to the upside over the weekend reaching all the way up to the 0.00008000’s on very bullish candle formations that have continued into today and are confirming positive intact market structure while the volume indications fully support the rally, all very good signs for the bulls moving forward. The fact that the moving averages are just now starting to pick up steam to the upside is also good for the bulls from a longer-term perspective, although momentum is very overbought and price action is parabolic so when a correction materializes its likely to be quite violent. Since Fibonacci levels are no longer applicable at this time, psychological levels become paramount so we’d look to the 0.00010000 area for profit taking and thus a potential selloff.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00005000 for upside to the 0.00010000 area.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika ARRR/USD daily linear chart
ARRR/USD is in full price discovery mode moving all the way up to the $5 level in almost a straight line on large and bullish candle formations that are confirming intact market structure while the moving averages all begin to accelerate to the upside, so the bulls are definitely in control overall moving forward. Having said that, the RSI is overbought and bearishly divergent and price has gone parabolic up to our $5 target so we would not be surprised to see some downside volatility in the not too distant future.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $3 for upside to the $10 area.
Wownero (WOW) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre WOW/BTC daily linear chart
WOW/BTC is looking much better to start this week than it did when we covered it last week given that the past two bullish candles have retraced almost the entire wick that created the very bearish candle that spiked above the lower demand area on the initial rally out of the bear market, so the outlook is quickly getting better for the bulls. The improving volume indications, increasingly favorable moving averages, and shift to bullish medium-term market structure also suggest that the bulls are now fully in control, so we’re expecting a move up to the 0.00001000 area in the coming days.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00000600 for upside to the 0.00001000 area.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika WOW/USD daily linear chart
WOW/USD has moved swiftly back up into the OTE short zone and main supply area coming off of the all-time highs from last week which has turned near-term market structure back to bullish while longer-term structure remains highly supportive of more upside going forward, all good signs for the bulls. The rising moving averages and semi-recharged momentum oscillators should also help the bulls over the coming days, although we need to be wary of a failure at the old all-time highs on bearish momentum divergences so we’ll be watching price action closely at the $0.50 level over the course of this week.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $0.30 for upside to the $0.50 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!