Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(April 16 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Despite some positive comments out of Ray Dalio today in Texas, it’s been a rather slow news day once again as we head into the weekend, which comes as no surprise given the hype around the Coinbase IPO earlier in the week. This lack of news is likely contributing to the hangover that the crypto markets are currently suffering from following the all-time highs a few days ago, however the charts still look primed for a larger move higher over the next week or two therefore our bias remains bullish in general moving forward.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll begin this final update of the week with a look at the daily chart where we can see that the selloff over the past 24 hours pushed price well below the previous all-time high before rebounding off of the $60k level earlier today, and now we’re sitting around $61,800 which is the number we need to close above to keep the bulls in full control heading into the weekend. The rising moving averages and still favorable volume indications should help with this task over the coming days, hence we’re leaning towards a hold of support through the weekend, although momentum leaves something to be desired so we cannot rule out a test of the high-$50k’s before this next leg of the bull market starts in earnest.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
We’ll also look at the weekly chart for a view of the longer-term setup where we can see that the current candle formation has turned bearish once again while the momentum oscillators remain stretched to the upside and historical support remains very thin, so the bulls certainly need to be defensive over the near-term. Having said that, even if the current candle prints as-is in a few days we still don’t think price gets back into the broken triangle so we would be buyers of weakness below $60k if given the opportunity.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $60,000 for upside to the $73,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC weekly linear chart
XMR/BTC is back up into the 0.0055 level today on strong shorter-term technicals and supportive longer-term signals such as the now bullish candle formation on the weekly chart above as well as the rallying momentum oscillators which should keep the bulls in control moving forward. A shift to bullish medium-term market structure this week coming off of the double bottom is also a good sign for the bulls overall, however the lower supply area and the falling moving averages are likely to put at least a temporary stop to the uptrend around the 0.0060 level.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0050 for upside to 0.0060. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
Despite being in the heart of the OTE short zone and at the bottom of the lower supply area price is staying surprisingly resilient thus keeping the current weekly candle formation bullish while market structure remains favorable and the moving averages continue to pick up steam to the upside, all very good news for the bulls over the coming days and weeks. The volume indications also remain favorable and the momentum oscillators still have a little bit of room to move higher, therefore we’re thinking that the bulls are going to maintain control until the $360 – $380 area where the bears are likely to get more active.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $300 for upside to the $375 area. Longer-term target resides around $500.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance BCH/BTC 3-day linear chart
BCH/BTC has rocketed to the upside over the past few days thus sparking a large and bullish candle formation that has turned medium-term market structure positive while the volume indications improve markedly and the momentum oscillators have room left to run, all of which bodes very well for the bulls moving forward. The break of the 50 SMA a few days ago and the not yet confirmed break of the 100 SMA today are also great signs for the bulls overall, hence we think resistance in the 0.022 area is a reasonable upside target for the next week or two. Having said that, shorter-term resistance between current levels and 0.020 are likely to keep a lid on price over the upcoming weekend.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.016 for upside to the 0.022 area.
TradingView Coinbase BCH/USD weekly linear chart
We’ve seen quite an impressive breakout in BCH/USD over the past 24 hours as a move above the medium-term ascending channel sparked a very large and firmly bullish candle formation that has shifted longer-term market structure to bullish while the moving averages just begin to accelerate to the upside, so the bulls are now fully in control of this one for the first time ever. The impressive volume indications and the rising momentum oscillators support the idea of a bullish bias moving forward, although resistance between $1200 -$1400 is very stiff so we think a correction is likely to start somewhere in that area over the next few weeks.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $800 for upside to the $1400 area. Longer-term target resides around $3000.
Aave (AAVE) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance AAVE/BTC daily linear chart
Of the major DeFi coins on the TCV watchlist AAVE looks the best right now in terms of potential upside considering that a nice double bottom has formed on the BTC pair on favorable market structure while the still slowly rising 200 SMA and improving volume indications suggest a breakout in the not too distant future. The fact that the momentum oscillators haven’t really gotten going yet is also a good sign for the bulls moving forward, although it will be tough to punch through the lower supply area without some back and filling first so we would take profits on short-term positions in the low-0.0080’s if given the chance.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0068 for upside to the 0.0082 area. Longer-term target resides around 0.0100.
TradingView Binance AAVE/USD daily linear chart
AAVE/USD is still well within the large medium-term trading range that it’s been in since the beginning of February so we can’t get that excited yet, however the technicals are lining up very nicely for a breakout to new highs in the not too distant future considering that we have a confirmed shift to short-term bullish market structure over the past few days on still favorable momentum oscillators and very encouraging volume indications. We also like the fact that the 50 SMA has reversed and is rejoining the 100 SMA in an uptrend, however resistance around $500 will be quite hard to break on the first attempt so there’s likely to be some more volatile consolidation within the range over the next week or two before a breakout materializes.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $400 for upside to the $550 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!