Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(April 14 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Despite mixed emotions regarding Coinbase within the crypto community, it truly is a historic day for the industry particularly considering that the first few COIN trades on the Nasdaq briefly made it a $100 billion company, bigger than any US-listed exchange or broker by a wide margin. While we think the significance of the event is more symbolic of the beginning of the mainstream phase of crypto adoption than a celebration of Coinbase as a company, we also think that this is yet another arrow in the quiver of the bulls who remain in full control of the market overall.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll return to the 6-hour chart today as it remains the best view of the short-term setup where we can see that some profit taking has materialized following the beginning of trade for COIN sending the BTC price back down to the top of the broken triangle, which so far is holding (a good sign for the bulls). The still rising moving averages and intact bullish market structure also suggest that this is simply a pause before new all-time highs later in the week, although the momentum oscillators have some more recharging to do and the A/D line is moving a bit lower so this consolidation could easily last another day or two.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 3-day linear chart
Next we’ll zoom out to the 3-day chart for a broader view of the medium-term technicals where we can see that a fairly nastly candle formation has developed today following a rejection at the 123.6% Fibonacci extension level that has pushed price back down to the top of the broken supply area, which is certainly a concern over the near-term. Having said that, there is still almost 36 hours to turn this candle bullish again and at this point it looks like a classic retest of the previous all-time high, which in conjunction with the still rising moving averages and favorable momentum and volume indications makes us think that this dip is buyable for upside to new highs later this week or early next.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $60,000 for upside to the $73,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC continues to pull back into the handle of the C&H formation that we discussed in yesterday’s update which is giving us an opportunity to nibble below 0.0050 while the momentum oscillators continue to recharge and the shorter-term moving averages continue to turn more bullish, all of which is keeping us positive on this market moving forward. While we think that there is likely to be at least a few more days of this sideways to down action, we also think that the bulls are back in control by the end of the week with sights set on the 0.0060 area.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0050 for upside to 0.0060. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
Today we’ll zoom out to the XMR/USD weekly chart for a view of the longer-term technicals where we can see that price is retracing off of the regional highs heading into the back half of the week thus sparking a fairly bearish candle formation while the momentum oscillators back off of overbought territory a little bit, which might be painful for the bulls over the near-term but is quite healthy longer-term. The rising moving averages and favorable volume indications also support much more upside to the bull market over the course of this year, however sub-$300 levels likely need to be tested before we can break through the lower supply area/OTE short zone resistance patch between ~$340 – $380.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $300 for upside to the $375 area. Longer-term target resides around $500.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
After a few weeks of consolidation to begin this month ETH/BTC has finally broken out of what ended up being a bullish flag formation (as opposed to a pennant) on a firmly bullish candle formation that is confirming favorable short-term market structure while getting close to shifting medium-term structure as well, all very good news for the bulls moving forward. The fact that all of the moving averages are now rising once again while the volume indications remain highly encouraging also suggests that this rally has legs, although price is at the top of the lower supply area while momentum gets close to overbought so we think a very short pause is in order before the 0.040’s are explored.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.035 for upside to the 0.042 area.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD pushed up to the 150% Fibonacci extension level over the past 24 hours on still bullish market structure, rising moving averages, and favorable volume indications so we currently see no reason to hop off of the train at this point despite the possibility of some near-term turbulence. On that note, however, the momentum oscillators are almost overbought and the current candle formation is very bearish so a quick move lower to recharge the technicals and washout latecomers appears likely before we see a $2500 handle.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $2200 for upside to the $2700 area.
Decred (DCR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance DCR/BTC 3-day linear chart
DCR/BTC continues to perform quite well overall considering that price is consolidating near it’s regional highs and above the broken triangle while the moving averages continue to pick up steam to the upside and the volume indications continue to improve, so we think the market is poised for higher prices in the not too distant future. Our only major concern are the rather overbought momentum oscillators which could keep the current consolidation going for a little while longer, although we don’t see this as something that could derail the bull market so we’re still leaning higher overall.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0030 for upside to the 0.0045 area.
TradingView Binance DCR/USD daily linear chart
DCR/USD continues to push up to new all-time highs every few days and yet still looks primed for more upside considering that market structure remains favorable, the momentum and volume indications are still supportive, and the moving averages continue to rise, therefore our new short-term target resides around $230. While there could be some additional near-term turbulence around this 400% Fibonacci extension level that the bulls are currently struggling with, we’re not seeing anything at this time that tells us to move to the sidelines.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $190 for upside to the $230 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!