Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(April 13 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
With only one day to go until the Coinbase IPO, it comes as no surprise that BTC is breaking out of its month long consolidation thus reaching new all-time highs on still favorable technicals and supportive fundamentals. While we were concerned a few weeks ago that we might see a “buy the rumor, sell the news” setup for bitcoin due to the IPO, the fact that price has stayed stable into the event up until today pretty much takes that narrative out of play in our opinion. No doubt that pullbacks to test support will be common over the next few weeks, however we also still think the road to $70k+ is freshly paved so we see no reason to hop out of the car at this time.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll begin with a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term technicals where we can see that price broke convincingly above the top of the ascending triangle earlier today on a firmly bullish candle formation that confirmed a shift back to favorable market structure while the moving averages continue to rise, all of which points to higher prices moving forward. The encouraging volume indications and confirmation of the Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern are also suggesting that the path of least resistance is still higher, and the target from the triangle is the old ATH of $61,781 + the triangle flagpole of $11,421 = $73,202, which is where we think price is heading over the next few weeks. That said, increasingly overbought momentum points to a pullback/retest of the $62k area before another leg up which we would use as an opportunity to add to positions.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We also want to look at the daily chart to see where the medium-term technicals stand and right now things look very good for the bulls given a clean break above the previous all-time high on a convincing candle formation that has confirmed a shift back to bullish shorter-term market structure and a continuation of favorable longer-term structure, all very good news for the bulls as April progresses. The still rising moving averages and positive momentum oscillators are supportive of the bullish bias moving forward, although volumes still don’t look that great and we need to see the daily close above $61,781 so it might make sense to stay a bit cautious over the next 6 – 8 hours.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $62,000 for upside to the $73,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
XMR/BTC
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
While XMR/BTC failed to get all the way up to our 0.0060 target over the past few days, price action has been very encouraging with what looks like a Cup & Handle continuation pattern developing that would imply significant upside well above 0.0060 over the course of this week. The now rising shorter-term moving averages and very favorable shorter-term market structure are also pointing to higher prices in the near future, however momentum could use a bit more recharging and there is some room to the downside to tag support over the near-term so we would not be surprised to see sub-0.0050 levels tested before another leg to the upside materializes.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0050 for upside to 0.0060. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.
XMR/USD
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD is now well above the $300 level following a very good weekend for the bulls, and despite a bearish candle formation yesterday on the spike to the 150% Fibonacci extension level we continue to lean bullish on this one moving forward. The still rising moving averages, intact market structure situation, and favorable volume indications also suggest that higher prices are likely, however momentum needs a recharge soon so a day or two of consolidation below $350 would make sense before the next breakout.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $300 for upside to the $375 area. Longer-term target resides around $500.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
ARRR/BTC
Coinigy TrageOgre ARRR/BTC 3-day linear chart
After breaking above the symmetrical triangle last week, ARRR/BTC proceeded to break the supply area as well on another bullish candle formation which sparked the insane move that materialized over the weekend that saw price 4x in 4 days, a truly remarkable rally to be sure. The very favorable volume indications support the rerating and the moving averages are just getting started, which is keeping us longer-term bullish, so we’re raising our target to 0.0005000. That said, parabolic moves like this are unsustainable from a short-term perspective which is why we would be very cautious getting active on the long side before a pullback and new support is established.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00002000 for upside to the 0.00005000 area.
ARRR/USD
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika ARRR/USD daily linear chart
The explosion to the upside in ARRR/USD has been so extraordinary that there really is no point to the Fibonacci extension levels anymore, so now we’re relying more on pure market psychology to determine a reasonable upside target for this powerful bull market. The TCV and TDV’s fearless leader Jeff Berwick recently stated that he thinks $5 is in the cards, and this number makes as much sense as any so we’ll go with that. Unfortunately we still don’t have a pure USD exchange pair so the technicals remain murky, but we suspect new listings will come with this increased market cap which will be further catalysts for upside (but not without extreme volatility as well, so not for the faint of heart).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $2 for upside to the $5 area.
Wownero (WOW) Technical Analysis & Outlook
WOW/BTC
Coinigy TradeOgre WOW/BTC 3-day linear chart
No doubt there is something big happening with regard to the privacy coins considering that WOW/BTC has joined the party too rocketing up into the lower supply area and OTE short zone over the past few days on some bullish 3-day candle formations that have shifted medium-term market structure back to bullish for the first time since last summer, all very good news for the bulls moving forward. The rapidly improving volume indications and the now rising moving averages also support higher prices in general, although momentum has quickly become overbought and there is quite a bit of resistance up to the 0.0000600 level so there’s likely to be some turbulence over the near-term before we see anything like the move in ARRR.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00000400 for upside to the 0.00001000 area.
WOW/USD
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika WOW/USD daily linear chart
While of a much lesser magnitude than ARRR/USD, WOW/USD has moved parabolically to the upside over the past several days as well on mostly large bullish candle formations that have turned market structure favorable on all timeframes while MACD shoots higher, all very good signs for the bulls from a longer-term perspective. The fact that the moving averages are just now starting to pick up steam to the upside is also good news for the bulls as 2021 progresses, hence we think $1.00 is certainly possible at some point (especially if it WOW/BTC can play catch up to ARRR), however momentum is quite overbought right now so a near-term pause or pullback is likely before we move much higher.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $0.20 for upside to the $1.00 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!