Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(April 9 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
In yet another sign of bitcoin and crypto’s creep into every industry, insurance giants Liberty Mutual and Starr have partnered with NYDIG to expand the use of bitcoin in insurance, which is certainly good news from a fundamental standpoint. Technically speaking, the market looks primed for upside as well given the recent resilience in the face of what were worrisome charts earlier this week, so we think the odds of a move above $60k this weekend are increasing rapidly at this time.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll begin this final update of the week with a look at the daily chart where we can see that price is starting to get squeezed by the rising and supportive 50 SMA below the market and the all-time high supply area above it which has sparked a textbook doji candle today that signals indecision at these levels over the near-term, so a bit more consolidation below $60k is likely for the next day or two. The momentum oscillators could also use a bit more recharging as well, however the rising moving averages, favorable volume indications, and intact ascending triangle all suggest that we are getting close to a test of $60k+ levels once again.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
Next we want to look at the weekly chart for a view of the longer-term technicals where we can see that a more uncertain picture is developing considering the pennant/triangle that we discussed in the CMU video yesterday which is being given even more credence due to the doji candle that is forming heading into the weekend, so while we think $60k prices are likely very soon we’re still not totally convinced that we’ll see a sustainable breakout to new ATHs just yet. Having said that, even if the bulls get cold feet over the shorter-term the pennant still suggests a high impact breakout at some point before the end of next month so we’ll be prepared to stay patient even though we think new highs in the near future is still the path of least resistance for now.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $55,000 for upside to the $70,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC weekly linear chart
XMR/BTC is looking very good from a technical perspective heading into the weekend considering that price is up 5% today thus turning the current weekly candle formation bullish once again while market structure continues to improve off of the double bottom, so we think higher prices are likely over the coming days (and weeks). The favorable momentum oscillators and the lack of resistance until the 0.0060 region are also very good signs for the bulls moving forward hence we have moved our shorter-term target all the way up to 0.0060.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0043 for shorter-term upside to 0.0060. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
XMR/USD continues to push higher following the breakout above the pennant a few weeks ago, and the late week action has turned the current candle formation more bullish while market structure continues to become much more favorable longer-term, which is all very good news for the bulls moving forward. So are the still encouraging momentum and volume indications, and the rising moving averages, so it looks like $300+ prices are closer than we have been anticipating recently.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $250 for upside to $350. Longer-term target now resides around $500.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Bittrex ETH/BTC weekly linear chart
When we zoom out to the ETH/BTC weekly chart we see that there still isn’t a whole lot going on despite continuous social media chatter, although we continue to think that the longer-term outlook remains quite bullish considering intact and improving market structure, slowly rising shorter-term moving averages, favorable momentum and volume indications, and a lack of major historical resistance overhead. That said, we must stay patient as there is a high likelihood that price stays between the falling 200 SMA overhead and the 50 SMA below the market for the foreseeable future.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.032 for upside to the 0.045 area.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD weekly linear chart
While there’s still a small chance that we’ve been seeing a false breakout on ETH/USD over the past few weeks, we think the recent consolidation around and above $2000 is quite encouraging moving forward, as are the rising moving averages and the very favorable volume indications. The recharged MACD reading also suggests that more upside is likely in the near future, however overbought and divergent momentum oscillators remain a concern so we’ll stay somewhat cautious until $2150 is broken with conviction.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $2000 for upside to the $2500 area.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC 3-day linear chart
What a week it’s been for the ARRR/BTC bulls as price has continued to skyrocket to the upside on another very large and firmly bullish candle formation that has easily broken above the triangle and OTE short zone that we discussed a few days ago thus substantially improving market structure overall, so we think the bulls are in control and look ready to take prices even higher moving forward. The fact that the moving averages are slowly turning to the upside while the momentum and volume indications are highly favorable also suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the upside, however we need to see a close above the yellow horizontal line in order to confirm a shift to bullish medium-term market structure so a pause around current levels may be in order over the next few days.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00000800 for upside to the 0.00002000 area.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika ARRR/USD daily linear chart
ARRR/USD has been on a moon mission over the past week and that mission continues in earnest today as price has shot up to new all-time highs above $0.60 on a huge and firmly bullish candle formation that is further confirming favorable longer-term market structure while all of the moving averages continue to trend higher, all of which suggests that the bull market is likely to continue over the coming weeks. Having said that, a near-term pause or pullback may be in order given that RSI is now officially overbought and price is hitting the 200% fibonacci extension levels so we would be surprised if $0.70 was broken without some turbulence first.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $0.45 for upside to the $0.68 area. Longer-term target now resides around $1.00.
Good Luck, Good Trading!