Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Choppy sideways action continues to dominate bitcoin trading today despite an earnings release from Coinbase which showed strong growth for the company and for crypto heading into the direct listing in a few weeks. While we’re not that worried about a deeper correction late this week or early next at this point, the odds of a breakout to new all-time highs this week are dropping hence we’re becoming a bit more neutral over the near-term.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
First we’ll return to the 6-hour chart for a view of the short-term technicals where we can see that the Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern remains intact but is becoming elongated with a slight deterioration in near-term market market structure while the momentum oscillators move to the downside, all of which suggests more consolidation in the $55k – $60k area over the coming days. Having said that, we still think that a sustainable move up to new ATHs is likely following this stagnant period given the rising moving averages and still favorable volume indications so we’ll continue to use weakness as an opportunity to add to longer-term positions even if this consolidation lasts another few weeks.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 3-day linear chart
We’ll also take a look at the 3-day chart for a view of the longer-term technicals where we can see that price is falling back out of the ATH supply area today on an increasingly bearish candle formation that is putting pressure on near-term market structure while the momentum oscillators remain stretched to the upside, all pointing to more directionless action over the short-term. The fact that there isn’t much in the way of technical or historical support until the $55k region is also a concern in terms of directionality moving forward, however the still rising moving averages, intact longer-term market structure, and a favorable A/D line all tell us to keep buying in the $50k’s for the eventual breakout to new highs.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $55,000 for upside to the $70,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
The XMR/BTC bulls are getting active once again today thus sparking a bullish candle formation that has pushed price back up into the lower supply area thus helping market structure despite still being in a medium-term consolidation, so we continue to lean to the upside in this one moving forward. The fact that price is still above the reversing shorter-term moving averages is also a good sign for the bulls moving forward, although the momentum and volume indications still leave much to be desired and there is a ton of resistance between current levels and 0.0060 so we continue to think some downside volatility is likely before a sustainable move up to the 0.0050 target.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0043 for shorter-term upside to 0.0050. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
The bullish weekly candle last week on XMR/USD is being followed up by doji candle inside the lower supply area this week on still rather overbought momentum oscillators which is why we think there is likely to be more consolidation below $300 over the shorter-term. On the other hand, the moving averages are still picking up steam to the upside and the volume indications remain encouraging longer-term so we’re still expecting a rally up above $280 and towards $300 before the month of April is out.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $250 for shorter-term upside to $280. Longer-term target remains around $400.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance BCH/BTC daily linear chart
We finally have something to talk about with regard to BCH/BTC as a breakout above the long-term downtrend line yesterday sparked a firmly bullish candle formation into the close that has helped near-term market structure substantially while the momentum and volume indications continue to improve, all good news for the bulls moving forward. The fact that price is now above the 50 SMA is also bullish news, however the falling 100 SMA is currently acting as resistance around current levels so we think a retest of the broken trendline around the 0.010 area is likely before a move up to the 0.014 target.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.010 for upside to the 0.014 area.
TradingView Coinbase BCH/USD daily linear chart
BCH/USD has moved back above the $600 level over the past few days thus turning shorter-term market structure back to bullish while also clearing the 50 SMA once again, which is good news for the bulls moving forward, as are the still rising momentum oscillators and the favorable volume indications. The fact that the longer-term moving averages remain in steady uptrends is also encouraging for the bulls from a longer-term perspective, although OTE short zone resistance around current levels and the ATH supply area just above that are likely to keep price pinned below $800 for the foreseeable future.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $600 for upside to the $750 area.
EOS (EOS) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance EOS/BTC daily linear chart
Following a beautiful double bottom on EOS/BTC that has formed over the course of 2021, price has begun to move to the upside over the past few days on some relatively bullish 3-day candle formations that are helping market structure immensely while the momentum and volume indications improve significantly as well, all very good news for the bulls moving forward. The recent break above the falling 50 SMA is also a good sign for the bulls, as is the lack of technical or historical resistance until the 0.00015 area, which is why we think a continuation higher is likely after a few days of consolidation around current levels (where the previous regional high resides).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.000100 for upside to the 0.000150 area.
TradingView Bitfinex EOS/USD weekly linear chart
We’ll wrap up with a look at the EOS/USD weekly chart for a broad view of the longer-term technicals where we can see that a breakout to new regional highs last week sparked a large and firmly bullish candle formation that confirmed a shift to bullish medium-term market structure all while the moving averages begin to pick up steam to the upside, which bodes well for the bulls moving forward. The encouraging momentum and volume indications also suggest that the bulls are regaining control longer-term, although supply area and OTE short zone resistance around current levels will likely to keep price below $7 for a few days before a test of $8’s down the road a bit.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $6.00 for upside to the $8.50 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!