Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(April 5 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Over the past several days the bitcoin markets have continued to consolidate below $60k as expected, likely due to the Easter holiday as well as still somewhat uncertain shorter-term technicals. That said, the near-term outlook is beginning to improve in terms of those technicals, and news that MicroStrategy bought another $15 million worth of BTC is more support for the market fundamentally, so we still think it is only a matter of time until new all-time highs are reached (sooner rather than later in our opinion).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll start this first full week of April off with a look at the 6-hour chart where we can see that the Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern that we discussed in the CMU video last Thursday has indeed materialized which is very good news for the bulls moving forward, as is the fact that the right shoulder was unable to get down to the $55k level that we mentioned due to the still rising shorter-term moving averages. The intact medium-term uptrend line, the rising 200 SMA, and the favorable momentum and volume indications also support a breakout to new highs in the not too distant future, although if we don’t see a rally to new highs this week then we’ll be looking at the potential for $5,000+ of downside and another few weeks of consolidation before a sustainable move higher occurs.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next we’ll look at the daily chart for a view of the medium-term technicals where we can see that price continues to struggle with the bottom of the ATH supply area on improving but still uncertain short-term market structure and suboptimal momentum oscillators, so we cannot rule out more backing and filling in the $50k’s before a sustainable breakout materializes. Having said that, all of the moving averages continue to rise, the volume indications remain fairly encouraging overall, and the IH&S pattern is still firmly intact, so we continue to lean towards new highs before the end of the week.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $55,000 for upside to the $70,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC 6-hour linear chart
XMR/BTC continues to improve from a technical perspective as price has moved up to new regional highs over the past several days and is now settling in around the 0.0045 region on still favorable short-term market structure coming off of the double bottom from last month, so we continue to expect higher prices moving forward. The rising shorter-term moving averages and demand area around 0.0043 should also help the bulls over the coming days should weakness set in again, however the momentum and volume indications leave something to be desired and there is Fibonacci resistance above 0.0047 so we expect it to be a slow grind up to the 0.0050 target.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0043 for shorter-term upside to 0.0050. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
The strong price action in XMR/USD over the past several days has voided both the bearish rising wedge and the OTE short zone while helping near-term market structure immensely on mostly bullish candle formations while all of the moving averages continue to steadily rise, all good signs for the bulls moving forward. The volume indications also remain generally supportive of more upside over the coming days, however overbought momentum right at regional resistance is a recipe for near-term turbulence so we think there is likely to be a pause/pullback around $280 before a test of $300+ prices.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $240 for shorter-term upside to $280. Longer-term target remains around $400.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
It was a great weekend for the ETH/BTC bulls as price shot up to new regional highs on Friday on a large and firmly bullish candle formation that broke above all of the moving averages and also confirmed a shift back to shorter-term bullish market structure, all of which points to a continuation to the upside following the current consolidation. The developing bullish pennant and the still favorable momentum oscillators confirm the upward bias which is why we think there is a pretty good chance of seeing price approach the 0.040 region in the near future.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.034 for upside to the 0.040 area. Longer-term target resides around 0.050.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
The ascending triangle on the ETH/USD daily chart that we have been talking about for a few weeks now resolved to the upside over the weekend on a clean break above the upper trendline on a firmly bullish candle formation that confirmed a shift to longer-term bullish market structure, all of which bodes well for the bulls for the month of April. The rising moving averages, encouraging momentum and volume indications, and the fact that price is now consolidating above the triangle are all great signs for the bulls as well, so we’re expecting price to push up to the $2500 area over the next few weeks.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $2000 for upside to the $2500 area.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC 3-day linear chart
ARRR/BTC is on a tear to the upside today following a hold of the long-term uptrend line and upper demand area over the weekend, a move that has sparked a large and firmly bullish candle formation thus helping short-term market structure while price moves back above the rising 50 and 100 SMAs, all of which is very welcome news for the bulls moving forward. The improving momentum oscillators and the increasingly favorable volume indications are also good signs for the bulls overall, however the lower supply area is sitting around current levels, the triangle downtrend line is just above there, and the OTE short zone sits around 0.00000800, so while we think that 0.00001000 is likely to be tested at some point in the not too distant future we also expect quite a bit of turbulence getting there.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00000600 for upside to the 0.00001000 area.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika ARRR/USD daily linear chart
ARRR/USD has skyrocketed to the upside today on a very large and firmly bullish candle formation that looks like it will hold into the close which would confirm a shift back to bullish market structure while all of the moving averages remain supportive and continue to rise, all very good news for the bulls moving forward. The MACD reading also looks primed for more upside, although Fibonacci extension resistance, an almost overbought RSI, and historical resistance via the supply area will make it difficult to sustainably clear the low-$0.40’s on the way to the $0.50 target without some volatility first.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $0.35 for upside to the $0.50 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!