Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook

(Mars 31 – 2021)

Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook

It’s been a busy day for the bitcoin markets today on both the fundamental and technical fronts considering news of Goldman Sachs offering crypto products to its institutional and high net worth clients sent price shooting up to the $60k area in short order. As expected, though, technical resistance stopped the rally and quickly pushed price down almost $3000 in a matter of minutes, although it looks like this was simply a shakeout before $60k+ prices given that we’re already back in the $59k’s. Despite the volatility near all-time highs, we still see no reason to think that another leg of the bull market isn’t right around the corner.

TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart

The 6-hour chart remains the best view of the short-term technicals where we can see that the volatility earlier today sparked a “Darth Maul” candle formation that tagged the top of the broken channel once again while market structure continues to improve but is still highly uncertain overall, so we expecting a bit more choppy consolidation below resistance before an attempt an new ATHs. The overbought Willy reading, the lackluster RSI, and a bearishly divergent MACD also suggest more near-term challenges for the bulls, however the rising moving averages and favorable A/D line still to point to a longer-term bullish bias so we’ll continue to use weakness as an opportunity to buy before new ATHs.

TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD monthly log chart

Last week we looked at the monthly log chart in the TCV CMU Video and the technicals were fairly worrisome as a bearish candle was forming after long upside wicks the previous two months, however the move higher over the past week has turned the current candle formation bullish once again so all the bulls need to do to set the market up for new ATHs next month is hold current levels through the daily close in about 6 hours. While we think there is a very good chance of this happening given the current state of the moving averages and the volume indications, we do expect some near-term volatility around the close today (an possibly tomorrow) which is why we’re not calling for new highs for at least another day or two.

Trade Idea: Buy dips below $55,000 for upside to the $70,000 area.

Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook

XMR/BTC

TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart

While it was nice to see our 0.0045 short-term target hit earlier today on a spike to the upside, the recent rejection at the bottom of the lower supply area back below both shorter-term moving averages has sparked a very bearish gravestone doji/shooting star candle formation in XMR/BTC that will be a bad sign for the bulls if it prints later today on the daily close. The fact that the volume indications continue to deteriorate is also a concern moving forward, although we’re staying longer-term bullish and think this is just a test pump before a real move higher so we’ll continue to use weakness as an opportunity to accumulate before that materializes.

Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0040 for shorter-term upside to 0.0050. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.

XMR/USD

TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart 

A textbook breakout above the symmetrical triangle/bullish pennant over the past 24 hours in XMR/USD has put the bulls back in the driver’s seat as market structure is now improving while the moving averages continue to pick up steam to the upside, all good news for the bulls moving forward. The still favorable A/D line and the supportive momentum oscillators also support higher prices over the coming days, however said oscillators are getting close to overbought again and resistance will be stiff around the $290 regional high so we think some turbulence is likely between $270 – $290 over the shorter-term.

Trade Idea: Accumulate below $220 for shorter-term upside to $280. Longer-term target remains around $400.

Bitcoin SV (BSV) Technical Analysis & Outlook

BSV/BTC

TradingView OKex BSV/BTC weekly linear chart

While there’s still not a lot going on for BSV/BTC at this time, we want to zoom out to the weekly chart for any signs of a reversal of fortune for the bulls and so far we aren’t seeing much given that price is consolidating near the all-time lows on mostly bearish candle formations and discouraging volume indications, hence we’re not expecting much action in this one over the shorter-term. The still falling moving averages don’t bode well for the bulls either, however the compression in price action and the beginnings of a rounded bottom are some small rays of hope for the bulls longer-term that we will keep an eye on moving forward.

Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.

BSV/USD

TradingView OKex BSV/USDT weekly linear chart 

The rally in BSV/USDT this week has turned the current weekly candle formation bullish and is keeping longer-term market structure intact while price consolidates within an unorthodox triangle pattern, which is actually all good news for the bulls overall. The rising and supportive moving averages are also positives for the bulls, however the momentum and volume indications leave much to be desired at this time so more of the same inside of the triangle appears likely over the next few weeks.

Trade Idea: Buy dips below $180 for upside to the $250 area.

Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook

DERO/BTC

Coinigy TradeOgre DERO/BTC weekly linear chart

It’s been a while since we looked at DERO/BTC so we’ll revisit it today where we can see that price has been moving higher over the past few weeks on firmly bullish candle formations that are turning medium-term market structure much more favorable while the volume indications are highly supportive of this new medium-term bull market, all very good news for the bulls moving forward. The move back above the still falling 50 SMA for the first time since September of last year is also positive for the bulls, although RSI is getting stretched to the upside right when price is at resistance so we’d like to see a bit of consolidation before a breakout above 0.00007000 (which likely leads to a continuation up into the OTE short zone around 0.00010000).

Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00005500 for longer-term upside to the 0.00010000 area.

DERO/USD

CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika DERO/USD weekly linear chart 

DERO/USD has been a rocket ship to the upside since 2021 started, and this week is no different as price has shot up into the OTE short zone on a very large and still firmly bullish candle formation that is confirming bullish medium-term market structure while MACD makes new highs, all very good signs for the bulls longer-term. Having said that, RSI is very overbought and price is currently struggling with the bottom of the ATH supply area and the OTE short zone sweet spot so some near-term turbulence seems likely before a test of $5+ prices.

Trade Idea: Buy dips below $3.00 for upside to the $5.00 area. Longer-term target sits around $10.

Good Luck, Good Trading!