Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Following what was a rather turbulent and uncertain weekend in terms of price action in the bitcoin markets, news this morning that Visa plans to allow transaction settlements via USDC in the not too distant future got the bulls fired up resulting in a rally up to the $58k region. Over the past few hours, however, consolidation has taken hold near resistance and the short-term technicals could use some recharging so we think there’s like a few more days of sideways chop before an attempt to break $60k.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We have to return to the 6-hour chart to start the week as it remains the most reliable view of the short-term technicals where we can see that price moved above the top of the descending channel earlier today on a bullish candle formation that confirmed a shift back to bullish near-term market structure, all while the 50 SMA rejoins the longer-term moving averages in an uptrend which is good news for the bulls moving forward. The still favorable volume indications also suggest that the bulls are regaining control to start the week, however the momentum oscillators are getting a bit stretched, resistance remains stiff overhead, and the broken channel is currently being tested which we expect to continue for another day or two.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We also want to revisit the daily chart for a look at the medium-term setup where we can see that price has moved up into the near-term OTE short zone on a bullish candle formation that is turning still bullish longer-term market structure more favorable, so despite heavy resistance around current levels we think it’s only a matter of time before we see $60k+ again. The still rising moving averages, favorable volume indications, and bullish momentum oscillators also point to a bullish bias moving forward, which is why we think higher prices are likely later this week.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $55,000 for upside to the $70,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC continues to consolidate around the 0.0040 level on a hodgepodge of candle formations that are keeping market structure highly uncertain while the moving averages remain a problem overhead and the volume indications continue to show persistent selling, so we need to stay cautious on this one despite our bullish long-term view on the fundamentals. The momentum oscillators also still leave much to be desired at this time, although it appears as though longer-term accumulation continues to materialize so we still want to nibble below 0.0040.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0040 for near-term upside to 0.0045. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD is finally showing some signs of life for the first time in a while considering that price has rallied back up to the broken wedge over the past few days thus turning shorter-term market structure much more favorable while all of the moving averages continue provide support as they rise, all good news for the bulls moving forward. The encouraging momentum and volume indications should also help the bulls’ case over the coming week or so, however the current candle formation is coming in fairly bearish so we’re prepared to wait a few more days before we see $250+ hit.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $220 for short-term upside to $250. Longer-term target remains around $400.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
Given that USDC is an ERC-20 token built on top of Ethereum, the Visa news from earlier has been especially positive for ETH/BTC as price has moved up about 5% on a firmly bullish candle formation that is helping to stabilize market structure while the momentum and volume indications begin to improve. We also like the fact that we’re still in a medium-term support confluence, although the moving averages overhead remain very mixed and the chart is still a bit of a mess overall which is why we’re leaning towards more short-term consolidation below 0.032 before the bulls try to get a real bull market going again.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.030 for upside to the 0.045 area.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD has seen an acceleration to the upside today following a breakout above the 50 SMA thus sparking a firmly bullish candle formation that is keeping market structure favorable while also keeping the ascending triangle that we discussed last week in play, all good news for the bulls moving forward. The fact that the momentum oscillators are just now starting to pick up steam to the upside while the volume indications remain highly encouraging also suggests that higher prices are likely in the not too distant future, as do the rising longer-term moving averages, although resistance around $2000 is very stiff and the triangle pattern is only now halfway to its apex so there’s likely to be some additional near-term choppiness before we see new all-time highs.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $1600 for upside to the $2500 area.
Z Cash (ZEC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ZEC/BTC daily linear chart
While ZEC/BTC has yet to do much since the last time we looked at it, we still think that accumulation is taking place in the 0.0020’s given price action at the top of the upper demand area and also at the yellow resistance line, which is good news for the bulls longer-term but also signals more consolidation over the short-term. The still lackluster momentum and volume indications and the mixed moving averages support the idea of more near-term consolidation around current prices, although we’ll continue to use dips below 0.0024 to nibble on longer-term positions.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0024 for upside to the 0.0035 area.
TradingView Binance ZEC/USDT weekly linear chart
ZEC/USDT has indeed continued to consolidate in the mid-$100’s as expected thus expanding the symmetrical triangle/bullish pennant, and this formation has now given price the opportunity to consolidate even more which makes sense given the current bearish weekly candle formation (albeit it’s early in the week). The fact that the momentum oscillators are quickly moving up towards overbought territory is also not a great sign for the bulls shorter-term, however the rising moving averages and very favorable volume indications tell us that we should be buying weakness for an eventual bullish breakout from this triangle.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $130 for upside to the $180 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!