Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Mars 27 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
The BTC markets have been rebounding recently off of the $50,360 regional low from a few days ago on improving technicals and slow newsflow which is allowing some breathing room for the bulls for the time being. While we’re certainly more positive on the market now than we were on Thursday during the TCV Crypto Market Update Video, price is getting close to hitting resistance so some minor near-term weakness appears likely before a test of more substantial resistance around and above $58k next week.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll begin this final update of the week with a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the short-term setup where we can see that price has moved back up into the middle of the descending channel on mostly bullish candle formations above the still rising 100 SMA, so the bulls are in a better position now than they were earlier in the week. The still rising 200 SMA, the bullish volume indications, and the rising momentum oscillators (which have room to run higher) also suggest that the bulls are regaining some control, however the falling 50 SMA is sitting around current levels, still bearish shorter-term market structure, and the intact descending channel point to some near-term turbulence below $58k with the possibility of another washout into the low-$50k’s before all-time high resistance is sustainably broken (which we would yet again use as a buying opportunity).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next we’ll look at the daily chart where we can see that there have been some very interesting developments over the past few days, most notably the bullish engulfing candle that printed yesterday which we can see in the previous corrections marked the start of the next leg of the bull market (yellow circles). Also note that the last two pullbacks stopped at or around the rising 50 SMA, which is once again the case this time around, and the top of the demand area and OTE long zone are reinforcing the support confluence at $50k so it’s looking more and more like we have a sustainable bottom. That said, the volume indications leave something to be desired for the time being and the momentum oscillators could use a bit more recharging before take-off so we still think that some near-term weakness is possible before an attempt at the high-$50k’s early next week.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $52,000 for upside to the $70,000 area. Continue to accumulate below $55k for longer-term holding.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC 6-hour linear chart
The XMR/BTC bulls just can’t seem to gain any traction to the upside which is disappointing given that the double bottom that we have been discussing for the past few weeks is no longer valid, and now price is back below the slowly falling moving averages on bearish candle formations while the volume indications remain discouraging, so we’re back to being cautious on this one over the shorter-term. Having said that, we still think that longer-term players are accumulating in and around the upper demand area so we’ll continue to nibble below 0.0040 when given the opportunity.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0040 for near-term upside to 0.0045. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
While the current XMR/USD candle formation is slowly turning more bullish as the momentum oscillators pick up steam and the volume indications remain favorable, hence we still want to be buyers around and below the $200 area, shorter-term market structure remains uncertain and the expanding symmetrical triangle is still firmly intact therefore we’re expecting more sideways consolidation over the weekend and into early next week (at least).
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $200 for upside to $250. Longer-term target remains around $400.
Decred (DCR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance DCR/BTC 3-day linear chart
DCR/BTC is also worth a look before the end of the week considering that the unexpectedly shallow and brief pullback is already showing signs of terminating as price is bouncing off of new demand area support on some fairly bullish candle formations that are keeping market structure firmly intact, all of which is certainly good news for the bulls given our rather dire outlook over the past few weeks. The now confirmed Golden Cross (green circle) and the still rising 100 SMA are also very good signs for the bulls moving forward, however the momentum and volume indications remain suboptimal so more short-term consolidation between 0.0026 – 0.0030 seems likely before the market starts to trend again.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0027 for upside to the 0.0031 area.
TradingView Binance DCR/USD 3-day linear chart
Earlier this week in DCR/USD we saw a nice rejection at the top of the upper demand area which is being followed up by what is about to become a bullish engulfing candle that would signal a reversal back into an uptrend while market structure remains firmly intact and all of the moving averages continue to pick up steam to the upside, very good news for the bulls moving forward. The volume indications are also encouraging in general, however momentum remains fairly stretched to the upside so some additional short-term consolidation appears likely before $190 all-time highs are challenged by the bulls.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $150 for upside to the $180 area.
Polkadot (DOT) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance DOT/BTC daily linear chart
Since the CMU Video on Thursday we’ve been interested in DOT from a technical perspective, and on the BTC pair above we can see that price has recovered some of the losses from earlier in the week as the upper demand area and OTE long zone successfully acted as support while all of the moving averages continue to rise despite the 50 SMA being broken on Wednesday, which is all fairly good news for the bulls moving forward. The almost recharged momentum oscillators and the still encouraging volume indications are also good signs for the bulls longer-term, however short-term market structure remains firmly bearish so we need to see price get back above 0.000683 in order to resurrect the medium-term bull market.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00055 for upside to the 0.00075 area.
TradingView Binance DOT/USD daily linear chart
We’ll wrap up this week with DOT/USD where we can see that price fell out of the symmetrical triangle earlier in the week on a firmly bearish candle formation, broken near-term market structure, and still recharging momentum oscillators, so some caution remains warranted over the shorter-term. That said, the OTE long zone and upper demand area provided support during the drop and since then price has recovered back to the still rising 50 SMA while the longer-term moving averages continue to move higher and the volume indications remain highly encouraging, so while more consolidation in the $30 region is likely over the shorter-term we think the longer-term outlook remains bullish.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $30 for upside to the $40 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!