Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Mars 23 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
After hitting new local lows just below $53k around the daily close yesterday, the bitcoin markets have since recovered a portion of the losses today rebounding back above $55k where bulls and bears are now battling it out. The good news for the bulls is that evidence is emerging that there have been large outflows out of exchanges over the past few days implying that institutions are buying the dip, however the technicals still leave something to be desired so we’re not expecting smooth sailing over the near-term.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
Let’s start with a look at the 4-hour chart for a granular view of the short-term technicals where we can see that price moved down into the near-term OTE long zone over the past 24 hours and tagged the still rising 200 SMA thus keeping near-term market structure bearish and heavy while the 50 SMA moves to the downside, so we’re certainly not ready to call a bottom at $52,933 at this time. On the other hand, the bounce off of the 200 SMA sparked a bullish hammer candle that signals a reversal is possible, and the momentum oscillators look recharged and ready to rise, so we still think that our strategy of accumulating longer-term positions below $55k while waiting for a trading opportunity below $52k is the right play over the coming days.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 3-day linear chart
We also want to zoom out to the 3-day chart for a broad view of the medium-term setup where we can see that price now appears to be consolidating within a falling wedge pattern on bearish near-term market structure but still firmly bullish longer-term structure while all of the moving averages continue to rise, all of which favor the bulls from a slightly longer-term perspective. The still relatively encouraging volume indications also suggest that the bull market is far from over, however the momentum oscillators remain stretched to the upside and MACD has crossed below its zeroline so the near-term outlook remains fairly challenging.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $52,000 for upside to the $70,000 area. Continue to accumulate below $55k longer-term.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
We’ll zoom out to the XMR/BTC daily chart today where we can see that there is still nothing happening in terms of directionality at this time as price continues to consolidate above the top of the main demand area on still lackluster momentum and volume indications and bearish moving averages overhead, all suggesting more sideways action around current levels moving forward. While we still think that longer-term accumulation is taking place in this area, we don’t see any reason to get aggressive on the long side until some more bullish technicals materialize.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0040 for near-term upside to 0.0045. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
We’ll also zoom out to the XMR/USD weekly chart where we can see that price remains inside of the symmetrical triangle/pennant pattern on another mixed candle formation while shorter-term market structure remains uncertain but longer-term structure is still intact, so we would not be surprised to see the triangle extended sideways once again. The stagnant momentum oscillators confirm this view, however the still rising moving averages and the favorable volume indications tell us to stay bullish longer-term.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $200 for upside to $250. Longer-term target sits around $400.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
ETH/BTC continues to languish in the middle of the upper demand area and the OTE long zone on a hodgepodge of candle formations and still highly uncertain shorter-term market structure while the momentum and volume indications remain lackluster overall, so it looks like more of the same is probable over the near-term. The falling 50 and 200 SMAs also suggest more consolidation moving forward, however the double bottom around 0.030 remains intact so we’re staying more bullish from a slightly longer-term perspective.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.030 for upside to the 0.045 area.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD is still not looking too good from a short-term perspective considering that the double top remains a possibility as price has now broken below the 50 SMA and is turning that line into resistance while market structure becomes increasingly heavy and the momentum oscillators still have some recharging to do, so the near-term bias appears to still be to the downside for now. Having said that, the 100 SMA is rising to meet the OTE long zone in the ~$1450 – $1550 area while the A/D line continues to move steadily higher so we would welcome a buying opportunity below $1550 if given the chance.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $1550 for upside to the $2500 area.
Uniswap (UNI) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance UNI/BTC daily linear chart
From a longer-term point of view UNI/BTC continues to look quite bullish with favorable market structure, rising and supportive moving averages, and generally bullish momentum oscillators, so we will continue to use dips as buying opportunities when given the chance. That said, price appears to be forming a large rising wedge (which is typically bearish), the rejection at the bottom of the supply area has sparked a very discouraging candle formation, and the volume indications leave something to be desired, so the shorter-term outlook remains a bit worrisome which is why we are staying patient with this one.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00050 for upside to the 0.00075 area.
TradingView Binance UNI/USDT daily linear chart
UNI/USDT has been spiking up to new all-time highs over the past few days however Fibonacci resistance overhead continues to smack price back to the downside thus sparking some discouraging candle formations while the momentum and volume indications begin to deteriorate a bit, not great news for the bulls over the near-term. However, market structure remains firmly intact, and appears very favorable overall, and the moving averages are still rising, so we would use any dip below $30 as a buying opportunity before new all time highs materialize again in the not too distant future.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $30 for upside to the $40 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!