Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Mars 22 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
On a day when Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell said that cryptocurrencies are speculative and not a substitute for the US dollar, it comes as no surprise that the bitcoin markets are under some pressure to the downside right now. The technicals have also turned more bearish recently, contrary to our forecast from late last week, therefore we need to take a more neutral approach seeing as though some additional downside is becoming increasingly likely over the short-term.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll begin this last full week of March with a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the short-term setup where we can see that a failed rally over the weekend has resulted in a selloff today on a firmly bearish candle formation thus cementing another higher low and keeping near-term market structure bearish, not good news for the bulls moving forward. The recent break of the 50 SMA, the still recharging momentum oscillators, the deteriorating volume indications, and the potential descending channel also suggest that the bulls are likely to be on the defensive this week, hence we’ll keep powder dry for sub-$52k prices as the odds of more downside are increasing right now.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next we’ll look at the daily chart where we can see that price is breaking down out of the triangle/pennant pattern on a bearish candle formation that is turning near-term market structure even heavier while the momentum oscillators begin to truly recharge, all of which points to a bearish bias over the shorter-term. Having said that, the still rising moving averages, favorable volume indications, and the support confluence that continues to build in the $50k area via the 50 SMA, OTE long zone, and upper supply area are telling us to be ready to buy when/if price gets close to that region.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $52,000 for upside to the $70,000 area. Continue to accumulate below $55k longer-term.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC 6-hour linear chart
We continue to see no reason not to think that the double bottom we are hoping for on the XMR/BTC 6-hour chart is not materializing which is keeping us longer-term bullish, as is the fact that price is staying above the stabilizing 50 SMA and the top of the upper demand area, so we’ll continue to accumulate below 0.0040 when given the opportunity. That said, the shorter-term outlook remains neutral to slightly bearish considering the still falling longer-term moving averages and the lackluster momentum and volume indications so we’re still not expecting a sustainable move higher anytime over the shorter-term.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0040 for near-term upside to 0.0045. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
Unfortunately for the XMR/USD bulls price is breaking down out of the rising wedge today on a bearish candle formation that is turning market structure much heavier while the momentum oscillators begin to roll over, so we need to be cautious over the shorter-term. The lack of historical support just below the market is also a concern for now, although the moving averages are all still rising and the volume indications remain encouraging overall so still want to buy under $200 if given the chance moving forward.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $200 for upside to $250. Longer-term target sits around $400.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Huobi BSV/BTC daily linear chart
While the BSV/BTC bulls still don’t have a ton to work with in terms of sustainable upside over the shorter-term, it does look like there is a bottom trying to form in the 0.0030’s given an improvement in market structure over the past ten days while the momentum oscillators look strong with room to run to the upside, so a near-term move back above 0.0040 would not surprise us one bit. The longer-term outlook remains challenged, however, given the falling moving averages and still discouraging volume indications so we’ll need to see a lot more strength by the bulls in order to get bullish longer-term.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
TradingView OKex BSV/USDT daily linear chart
Price action on the BSV/BTC weekly chart above continues to compress around the $200 level on back to back doji candles that are keeping market structure highly uncertain while the momentum oscillators continue to languish and the volume indications remain discouraging, so we will stay neutral moving forward. The only consolation for the bulls is that the longer-term moving averages continue to rise and long-term market structure remains slightly bullish so those with conviction in this one can accumulate below $180 for longer-term holding.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral over the short-term. Accumulate below $180 for longer-term upside to the $400 area.
Decred (DCR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance DCR/BTC daily linear chart
DCR/BTC has been deteriorating over the past several days as expected thus sparking a bearish 3-day candle formation that printed over the weekend, and the current candle that paints later today is looking more and more bearish with each passing hour given the upside wick this is forming, therefore we remain very cautious on this one moving forward. The still rather overbought momentum oscillators and the lackluster volume indications are also keeping us pretty bearish over the short-term, as is the lack of historical or technical support until the 0.0020 area, therefore we’ll stay neutral and patient with this one until price moves substantially lower.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0020 for longer-term upside to the 0.0045 area.
TradingView Binance DCR/USD daily linear chart
Three firmly bearish 3-day candle formations over the past week or so have turned the DCR/USD chart quite bearish over the shorter-term as market structure becomes much heavier and support remains thin until the $120 region, therefore we’ll stay on the sidelines until price moves significantly lower. The fact that the still overbought momentum oscillators are just now starting to recharge while the volume indications soften a bit is also cause for concern moving forward, although longer-term volumes remain fine and the moving averages are still picking up steam to the upside so we’ll buy weakness below $140 if given the chance over the coming days.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $140 for upside to the $200 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!