Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Mars 19 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
As we head into the first weekend of spring the bitcoin markets are looking quite good from a technical perspective, and the fundamentals remain strong as well with news coming out today that Brazil is the second country in the Americas to approve a bitcoin ETF (after Canada). While there certainly could be a bit more back and forth between the bulls and bears below $62k over the near-term, we think another leg up to new all-time highs is becoming increasingly likely later this weekend or early next week.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
We’ll revisit the 4-hour chart today for one last look at the short-term technicals before the weekend where we can see that price is still struggling with the OTE short zone while market structure remains uncertain and the momentum oscillators are in no man’s land, all suggesting more consolidation below the all-time highs before the bulls get going again. That said, we don’t think it will take long for said bulls to become impatient due to the still rising moving averages and very favorable volume indications so we think it’s only a matter of time until we see new all-time highs (probably sooner rather than later).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll also take one more look at the daily chart this week to see where the medium-term technicals stand and for now the bulls appear to be in good shape overall considering the triangle/bullish pennant that is developing while market structure remains intact, so the bulls are still in control longer-term. The rising moving averages and still encouraging volume indications also point to a bullish bias moving forward, although we can see that the apex of the triangle hits on March 23rd so there could be a few more days of chop before we start to move higher into the $60k’s.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $55,000 for upside to the $70,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC 6-hour linear chart
While we’re once again disappointed with the performance on the part of the XMR/BTC bulls over the past few days given the Adam & Eve bottom that we talked about in the previous update, we do think that a double bottom in the upper demand area would be just as bullish, if not more so, than the Adam & Eve. That said, we cannot be certain of this outcome at this time and the falling moving averages and bearish momentum and volume indications are keeping the risk weighted to the downside so perhaps it’s best to stay neutral over the upcoming weekend.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0040 for near-term upside to 0.0045. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
XMR/USD is still treading water inside of the triangle formation while market structure remains firmly intact, the moving averages continue to rise, and the volume indications are favorable overall so we’re still leaning bullish over the longer-term. That said, short-term historical and technical support is quite thin below the market and the momentum oscillators leave much to be desired for now so we’re still thinking that a sideways extension of the triangle (and hence consolidation) is likely before the market starts to trend once again.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $200 for upside to $250. Longer-term target sits around $400.
Z Cash (ZEC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ZEC/BTC daily linear chart
It’s been a long time since we looked at ZEC/BTC given its underperformance over the course of this year, although we’re starting to get a bit more interested considering that price has been consolidating above the top of the upper demand area for a while thus keeping medium-term market structure intact while the momentum oscillators start to go from recharged to rising, all pretty good signs for the bulls moving forward. The fact that the 50 SMA is about to cross above the 100 SMA is also good news for the bulls overall, however we need to see a convincing break above the 0.0027 level before we start to get too excited given the still lackluster state of the volume indications.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0024 for upside to the 0.0032 area.
TradingView Binance ZEC/USDT daily linear chart
The ZEC/USDT weekly chart is still not in a great position from a shorter-term perspective given that the current consolidation remains quite messy and the momentum oscillators still need to recharge more before a breakout to the upside, so we’re staying cautious over the coming days (and perhaps weeks). Having said that, a bullish pennant remains intact, the moving averages are still picking up steam to the upside, and the volume indications remain very encouraging so the longer-term outlook is favorable moving forward.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $130 for upside to the $180 area.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
ARRR/BTC continues to consolidate around the 0.00000600 level within what appears to be a medium-term symmetrical triangle that has formed over the past month or so that is complicating matters for both the bulls and the bears. The flatlining moving averages that are converging on price and the still lackluster momentum and volume indications also suggest a directionally challenged market moving forward, hence more time in the triangle, so we’ll stay neutral until a resolution from this formation materializes.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral over the shorter-term. Continue to accumulate below 0.00000500 for longer-term upside to the 0.00001000 area.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprike ARRR/USD daily linear chart
ARRR/USD continues to trade within a very well defined short-term range between $0.30 and $0.38 on very mixed candle formations and highly uncertain near-term market structure while MACD hovers just below its zeroline and RSI remains close to overbought, all of which points to more of the same over the shorter-term. That said, all of the moving averages continue to rise and longer-term market structure is still intact so we think that the market will eventually resolve to the upside once this stagnant period has run its course (which could be a while longer still so patience is a virtue).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $0.33 for upside to the $0.40 area. Longer-term target remains around $0.50.
Good Luck, Good Trading!