Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Mars 16 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
The bitcoin markets have recovered today from the selling that we saw drive price down to the $53k area yesterday, which is a bit of a relief given the bearish state of the technicals that we discussed in the previous update, however we’re not convinced that we’re totally out of the woods yet so we’ll stay patient over the coming days. The steady stream of bad news out of India is also likely to continue to weigh on the market over the near-term, but yet another billionaire investor is starting to change his tune with regard to bitcoin which is contributing to our still long-term bullish outlook.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
While the 4-hour chart above is a bit of a mess overall there have been some fairly interesting developments recently such as the bounce off of the old triangle uptrend line that has led to the rally back above $56k that we’ve seen today on some bullish candle formations and still intact short and medium-term market structure, so the bulls have something to work with over the near-term. The still rising moving averages, the recharged momentum oscillators, and the improving volume indications also suggest some additional upside over the coming days, however we are expecting a lower high in the $58k – $60k area followed by another leg lower so we would take profits on shorter-term positions in that region if given the chance.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 3-day linear chart
We’ll also look at the 3-day chart today for a view of the longer-term technicals where we can see that the recovery in price over the past 24 hours hasn’t done much to alleviate the fairly bearish candle that is currently painting within what very well could be a Three Drives topping pattern that would hint at a move back down to the $40k area before the bull market resumes. The generally overbought momentum oscillators and the bearishly divergent RSI are also concerning over the shorter-term, hence our patience moving forward, however we don’t think the market is in a position to fall that far at this point so we’re sticking with our call for continued accumulation below $50k.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $50,000 for upside to the $60,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC 6-hour linear chart
XMR/BTC is looking primed for a strong move to the upside in the not too distant future given what looks like a textbook Adam and Eve bottom on improving market structure while the 50 SMA is tested for the first time in over ten days, so the bulls are starting to regain relevance. We also like the fact that the rising momentum oscillators still have some room to run higher over the near-term, hence a rally up into the resistance confluence area in the 0.0045 region appears likely before a pullback, however the volume indications remain very discouraging longer-term and the falling 100 and 200 SMA’s are also fairly bearish so we’re not ready to call for a sustainable bull market just yet.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0040 for near-term upside to 0.0045. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
The price action in XMR/USD over the past few days has turned the ascending triangle into more of a rising wedge, not nearly as good for the bulls moving forward, which makes sense given the rather bearish short-term BTC/USD technicals. The lackluster momentum oscillators also suggest that we should be cautious over the near-term in case a breakdown materializes, however we’ll use that weakness as an opportunity to add to longer-term positions due to the rising moving averages and favorable volume indications.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $200 for upside to $250. Longer-term target sits around $400.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
ETH/BTC hasn’t been doing much of anything over the past several days due to the mixed moving averages overhead and the lackluster volume indications, although we are expecting some movement to the upside soon considering it looks like a double bottom is forming in the upper demand area on improving market structure and recharged momentum oscillators. That said, we think a bit more time is needed exploring the low-0.0300’s before a sustainable rally materializes so we’ll stay patient over the near-term.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0300 for upside to the 0.0420 area.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD is looking a bit worrisome today following the recent failure in the OTE short zone and supply area that is creating the possibility of a double top while the momentum oscillators begin to weaken again, certainly not great news for the bulls moving forward. Having said that, the rising moving averages and still very favorable volume indications suggest that a true double top is unlikely and that any dip below $1600 remains a buy longer-term.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $1600 for upside to the $2500 area.
Uniswap (UNI) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance UNI/BTC daily linear chart
Since tagging the bottom of the all-time high supply area a few weeks ago, UNI/BTC has been moving to the downside on mostly bearish candle formations, lackluster volume indications, and still recharging momentum oscillators, so it looks like the path of least resistance over the near-term is to the downside. That said, we think this downside is limited to the low to mid-0.00040’s due to the OTE/demand area confluence in that region so we’ll be buyers on the dip if we get another leg lower over the coming days.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00048 for upside to the 0.00075 area.
TradingView Binance UNI/USDT daily linear chart
UNI/USDT has been under pressure over the past few days following a failed rally back up into the all-time high supply area thus turning near-term market structure much heavier while the momentum oscillators begin to slowly recharge, all pointing to a bearish bias over the shorter-term. The lack of historical or technical support until the mid-$20’s is also not great news for the bulls for the remainder of the week, however the rising moving average and very favorable volume indications are telling us to add to positions on this weakness as the longer-term bull market remains firmly intact.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $25 for upside to the $40 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!