Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Mars 15 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Indeed bitcoin broke out to the upside over the weekend as expected, reaching above $60k on favorable technicals, however the rally unexpectedly stopped before hitting our $65k target which has turned the technicals a bit more complicated moving forward. The lack of positive news coming into this week hasn’t helped matters for the bulls either, although the longer-term outlook remains favorable overall so we think this is yet another opportunity to buy some weakness before the next leg of the uptrend materializes.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
Let’s start with a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the short-term setup where we can see that $60k was too attractive for the bears which put a stop to the weekend rally thus sparking the selloff we’ve seen over the past 24 hours that has turned candle formations bearish and the volume indications a bit worrisome, so the bulls need to be on alert over the coming days. The still recharging momentum oscillators are also pointing to more downside over the near-term, however they are getting closer to bottoming and the moving averages remain attractive so perhaps all we need is a test of the triangle breakout around $52k before the bulls get active once again (although we want to stay neutral until $50k in case this correction has more legs over the shorter-term).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next we’ll look at the daily chart for a view of the medium-term technicals where we can see that price tagged the 250% Fibonacci extension level over the weekend where the bears got active when it was apparent that the bulls were losing steam, and since then price has moved lower on some bearish candle formations while the A/D line takes a small hit all of which is not great news for the bulls over the near-term. The recent bearish momentum divergences are also suggesting that we might need some time to heal following the recent selloff, hence a continuation down into the support confluence in the $47k – $50k area is becoming more likely before the bull market resumes (which we still think this is a buying opportunity due to the rising moving averages and intact market structure).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $50,000 for upside to the $60,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC daily linear chart
While XMR/BTC has yet to really catch a bid over the past few days, the candle formations that continue to develop along the top of the long-term demand area are still suggesting that accumulation is taking place below 0.0040, which is certainly longer-term bullish moving forward. The recharged momentum oscillators are also good signs for the bulls overall, however the still falling moving averages, lackluster momentum oscillators, and uncertain state of market structure are telling us that more time is needed consolidating in this area before a sustainable rally materializes.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0040 for upside to 0.0060. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
A false breakout from the ascending triangle over the weekend has resulted in bearish price action over the past 24 hours thus pushing us back into the triangle on some bearish candle formations and lackluster momentum oscillators, so more consolidation in the low-$200’s appears likely over the near-term. Having said that, the rising moving averages, the very favorable volume indications, and intact short-term market structure all tell us that we should still be leaning bullish overall so we’ll continue buying dips if more weakness does materialize over the coming days.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $200 for upside to $250. Longer-term target sits around $400.
Decred (DCR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance DCR/BTC 3-day linear chart
Next up is DCR/BTC where we can see that the bulls have been trying to close price above the medium-term resistance line to no avail which has resulted in some bearish candle formations due to the failed wicks to the upside, so we’re starting to get worried that a larger correction is becoming more likely at this point. The very overbought momentum oscillators and the still unimpressive volume indications also suggest that more caution is warranted over the short-term, however all of the moving averages are now rising so if we do get a dip we’ll be eager buyers of it below 0.0020.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0020 for upside to the 0.0045 area.
TradingView Binance DCR/USD 3-day linear chart
While the short-term outlook for DCR/USD has deteriorated over the past 24 hours following new highs late last week and the subsequent selloff over the past few days that came on some bearish momentum divergences, we remain long-term bullish due to the rising moving averages, intact market structure, and still favorable volume indications. The momentum oscillators remain overbought though so there certainly could be some additional near-term weakness therefore we’ll leave some powder dry in case we get a shot at sub-$150 prices.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $150 for upside to the $205 area.
Aave (AAVE) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance AAVE/BTC daily linear chart
AAVE/BTC has turned fairly bearish over the shorter-term as price has moved back down to the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level on some concerning candle formations that have turned already bearish near-term market structure even heavier, so we’re leaning to the downside over the next few days. The still recharging momentum oscillators also suggest that the bias is lower for now, however rising longer-term moving averages and the 50 SMA that is inside of the upper demand area (and OTE long zone) suggest that we should be accumulating on dips below 0.0060 for longer-term upside well above 0.0100.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0060 for upside to the 0.0150 area.
TradingView Binance AAVE/USDT daily linear chart
AAVE/USDT has rolled over recently thus sparking a shorter-term lower high which has turned market structure fairly bearish for now, and the 50 SMA has been broken over the past few days while the momentum oscillators continue to recharge, so it looks like the path of least resistance is lower over the near-term. That said, the 100 SMA is still rising and the volume indications remain quite attractive so we would use any dip below $300 as an opportunity to add to longer-term positions if given the chance.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $300 for upside to the $500 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!