Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Bitcoin got within a few hundred dollars of the all-time highs (ATHs) yesterday but was unsurprisingly unable to breakout without some additional consolidation, as mentioned in the previous update, and today we got news that Binance is now under investigation by US authorities which pushed price all the way down to $55k earlier this morning. Since then, however, price has quickly rebounded back above the $57k level showing just how strong the bulls remain, which is why we still think that a move up to new ATHs is likely this weekend or early next week.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
First we want to take one more look at the daily chart before the week is out where we can see that price is currently hitting resistance in the supply area which has caused some near-term volatility that could easily persist for another day or two, however the sharp bounce off of the $55k lows earlier today has turned the current candle formation quite bullish while market structure remains firmly intact as well, so the bulls are still in control overall. The rising moving averages and favorable volume indications also suggest a bullish bias moving forward, however the momentum oscillators leave something to be desired so we’re not expecting new highs until later in the weekend (or perhaps early next week).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
Next up is the weekly chart for a view of the longer-term technicals where we can see that the price action over the past five days has turned the current candle formation very bullish while market structure remains intact and the moving averages continue to pick up steam to the upside, all of which bodes well for the bulls over the coming days and weeks. The still supportive volume indications are also good news for the bulls moving forward, and we actually think that the overbought momentum oscillators are still signaling strength not fatigue, therefore a breakout to new ATHs into the $60k’s is likely in the not too distant future.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $55,000 for upside to the $65,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC weekly linear chart
The fact that XMR/BTC continues to hover in the high-0.0030’s despite still bearish short-term technicals is a sign that accumulation is taking place around the top of the long-term demand area while the momentum oscillators remain fully recharged and MACD is flashing a bullish divergence, all good news for the bulls from a longer-term perspective. Having said that, the moving averages continue to fall and the volume indications remain lackluster so the near-term outlook remains fairly negative hence we’ll stay neutral and patient around current levels.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0038 for upside to 0.0060. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
XMR/USD is still trading inside of the symmetrical triangle/bullish pennant pattern that we mentioned earlier in the week on a fairly encouraging candle formation while medium-term market structure remains bullish and the moving averages continue to rise, all good news for the bulls longer-term. So is the still rising A/D line, although the momentum oscillators remain a concern so we continue to think that an extension of the triangle is likely (meaning more consolidation in the low-$200’s before a breakout to the $250 area).
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $200 for upside to $250. Longer-term target sits around $400.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Bittrex ETH/BTC weekly linear chart
When we zoom out to the ETH/BTC weekly chart we can see that price is still trading between the bearish 200 SMA overhead and the supportive shorter-term moving averages below the market thus keeping medium-term market structure highly uncertain while the momentum oscillators remain disappointing, so it looks like it could be a while before the longer-term bull market really gets going. The stagnating A/D line also suggests that more consolidation is likely before an uptrend commences, and in fact the current bearish candle formation at support is telling us that a spike lower is quite possible over the coming days.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.030 for upside to the 0.040 area. Longer-term targets reside around 0.060.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD weekly linear chart
While the longer-term outlook for the ETH/USD bulls remains very encouraging considering intact market structure, rising moving averages, and very favorable volume indications, the current candle formation is turning fairly bearish while the momentum oscillators remain pinned near overbought territory so it looks like some additional consolidation in the high-$1000’s is likely before the bull market resumes (perhaps only a few days though).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $1600 for upside to the $2500 area.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
It’s been a rough go of it for the ARRR/BTC bulls over the past few weeks as price went from consolidating above moving average support in February to breaking down to the top of the upper demand area over the course of this week on a falling OBV reading and now bearish longer-term MA’s, so the bulls have some work to do to get back into a favorable position. That said, the rising 50 SMA is providing near-term support while the momentum oscillators get close to recharged, and the reaction off of the recent local lows has been fairly impressive, so we’re still leaning bullish longer-term which is why we want to continue to accumulate on dips when given the opportunity.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00000550 for upside to the 0.00000900 area.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika ARRR/USD daily linear chart
ARRR/USD continues its consolidation below all-time highs on lackluster near-term market structure and still recharging momentum oscillators, so more of the same appears likely over the shorter-term. Conversely, the moving averages all remain in steady uptrends while longer-term market structure remains bullish so we’ll continue to use weakness as an opportunity to add to positions when given the chance.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $0.32 for upside to the $0.50 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!