Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
While Beeple sold an NFT for $69.3 million over the past 24 hours, yet another sign that crypto is going mainstream and that the bull market is still in full swing, BTC has rallied up into the high-$50k’s as expected on strong price action driven by the still intact supply and demand imbalance, so we continue to think that a breakout to new all-time highs is likely by the end of the week. The technicals generally support this idea, however there are some minor warning signs that hint at a bit more consolidation before a sustainable breakout so we’ll stay patient heading into the upcoming weekend.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll begin by looking at the 6-hour chart where we can see that price rallied up into supply area resistance late yesterday where some selling began to materialize as anticipated which has paused the uptrend for the time being in accordance with our previous forecast. The still rising moving averages and favorable volume indications both suggest that indeed the bias is still to the upside once this consolidation has run its course, however almost overbought and bearishly divergent momentum oscillators while price is in a resistance zone is a recipe for more choppy, sideways action over the near-term before a breakout to new highs late this week or early next.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We also want to take another look at the daily chart following some adjustments and additions, primarily the extension of the consolidation boxes out to the breakout points where we can see that we’re almost two weeks ahead of schedule compared to the last corrective period, which is a bit worrisome moving forward. For this reason we have added a near-term OTE long zone (between the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels) in case we see another pullback and a more extended consolidation over the next week or two, however all of the other indicators are pointing to a resumption of the bull market sooner rather than later so perhaps this accelerated mini-cycle is just a symptom of the worsening supply and demand imbalance.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $54,000 for upside to the $65,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC 6-hour linear chart
Given the bearish XMR/BTC forecast from yesterday it is fairly encouraging to see price stay around the 0.0040 level over the past 24 hours, although most of the shorter-term technicals suggest that the bears are still in control considering that market structure is still bearish and heavy, candle formations are lackluster, and all of the moving averages are now falling. Also note that the A/D line continues to move lower telling us that sellers are still far more active than buyers, so despite the fully recharged momentum oscillators we want to stay neutral over the near-term.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0038 for upside to 0.0060. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD is starting to look better from a technical perspective seeing as though it looks like an ascending triangle is forming that is similar to the one that bitcoin just recently broke above, which bodes well for the bulls moving forward, as do the still rising moving averages and the very encouraging volume indications. The momentum oscillators also look decent for now, so we’re expecting a move up to the $250 area in the not too distant future.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $200 for upside to $250. Longer-term target sits around $400.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Huobi BSV/BTC daily linear chart
While it’s nice to see that the long-term BSV/BTC downtrend line is no longer valid on the daily chart above, the bears are still in full control of the market as price makes new cycle lows this week on small but bearish candle formations that are confirming still bearish longer-term market structure, so we think the path of least resistance remains to the downside moving forward. The falling moving averages and discouraging volume indications also point to a still intact downward bias across all timeframes, so we see no reason to get off the sidelines in this one yet.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
TradingView OKex BSV/USDT weekly linear chart
BSV/USDT continues to slowly grind its way higher along the still rising 50 SMA while the 100 SMA continues to move to the upside as well and longer-term market structure is still intact, so we think a test of the $200 area is likely in the near future. Having said that, the lackluster momentum oscillators and the downright bearish volume indications will likely keep the bulls fenced in for the foreseeable future so we’re not expecting a sustainable move above $250 any time soon.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
ChainLink (LINK) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance LINK/BTC daily linear chart
Finally we’ll look at LINK where we can see on the BTC pair that price is still trending lower within the descending channel on bearish short-term market structure and discouraging candle formations while the 100 SMA rolls over to join the other moving averages in a downtrend, all bad news for the bulls moving forward. The lackluster momentum and volume indications aren’t helping matters for the bulls over the near-term, however we do think that a higher low above 0.00040 is likely to materialize eventually so we’ll stay in buy the dip mode over the coming days and weeks.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00045 for upside to the 0.00070 area.
TradingView Kraken LINK/USD daily linear chart
LINK/USD has moved back up to the $30 region over the past few days thus keeping near-term market structure favorable for the time being while all of the moving averages continue to move higher and the volume indications are still very encouraging, so we’re still leaning bullish longer-term. On the other hand, it does appear as though a bearish rising wedge is forming on lackluster momentum oscillators so we need to be cautious over the near-term (although we would use the resultant weakness as an opportunity to add to long positions given what happened with the rising wedge in XMR/BTC last week).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $25 for upside to the $40 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!