Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
With Digital Currency Group (DCG), parent of Grayscale, announcing that they are buying $250 million worth of GBTC shares, presumably in order to reduce the current discount to NAV, the bitcoin markets are on fire swiftly approaching the $58,354 all-time high (ATH) on strong technicals and still positive fundamentals. It also looks like the supply and demand imbalance is starting to heavily favor the bulls at this time, a time when legacy markets are risk-on as well, so despite a to-be expected hiccup around the ATH over the next 24-48 hours we think a breakout to new highs is likely before the week is out.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
First let’s take a look at the 4-hour chart for a granular view of the short-term technicals where we can see that a clean break above the ascending triangle that we discussed yesterday materialized over the past 24 hours, as did a successful retest, and now price is heading into the ATH supply area on a bullish candle formation and intact near-term market structure, all very good news for the bulls moving forward. The still strong volume indications and rising 50 and 200 SMA’s are also positive signs for the bulls overall, however price is now in a legitimate resistance zone on almost overbought momentum oscillators so we think a pause or a slight pullback is likely before a sustainable break of $58,354.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Let’s also revisit the daily chart since price is now moving faster than it did in the previous corrective period which tells us that either the bulls are getting more aggressive or available supply (float) is being reduced at an even faster pace than we’ve seen during this bull market, all of which are good signs for the bulls no matter how you slice it. Candle formations and market structure also look more favorable this time around, and the moving averages are still rising while the momentum and volume indications remain encouraging, so we think new ATHs are likely once the cluster of resistance just overhead is cleared over the next few days.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $52,000 for upside to the $65,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
The technicals do not look great for the XMR/BTC bulls right now considering that we got a bearish retest of the bottom of the broken triangle and the falling 50 SMA a few days ago that has been followed up by two bearish candle formations that are turning already bearish market structure even heavier, all of which bodes poorly for the bulls moving forward. The deteriorating volume indications, still recharging momentum oscillators, and falling longer-term moving averages also point to a downward bias over the near-term, therefore we’ll pause our accumulation until sub-0.0038 prices, at least over the next day or two.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0038 for upside to 0.0060. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
Today we’ll zoom out to the XMR/USD weekly chart where we can see that a textbook bullish pennant pattern is forming just below the lower supply area on still favorable momentum and volume indications while the moving averages all continue to pick up steam to the upside, so we’re still leaning bullish from a longer-term perspective. Having said that, the momentum oscillators leave something to be desired and the current pennant is fairly compressed so we would not be surprised to see this consolidation extended for a while longer while momentum recharges a bit more.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $200 for upside to $300. Longer-term target sits around $400.
Aeon (AEON) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Bittrex AEON/BTC daily linear chart
AEON/BTC has been on the move over the past 24 hours, both to the upside and the downside, although we think the outlook is starting to improve once again given that the broken downtrend line has been successfully retested and is now irrelevant, and since then a small double bottom has formed that is helping near-term market structure while the 50 SMA rises and provides support, all good news for the bulls longer-term. The break above the 100 SMA yesterday and the still decent looking volume indications are also positive signs for the bulls moving forward, however the 200 SMA continues to fall, the momentum oscillators could use another recharge, and resistance is fairly heavy overhead so more consolidation on either side of 0.00001000 seems likely over the shorter-term.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00000900 for longer-term upside to the 0.00002000 area.
TradingView Bittrex AEON/USD 3-day linear chart
AEON/USD briefly spiked up into the bottom half of the main supply area over the past few days but has been rejected back to the downside recently thus turning the current candle formation fairly bearish while market structure remains highly uncertain overall, so we see no reason not to expect more choppy sideways action between the flatlined moving averages below the market and the supply area above it. The still lackluster volume indications confirm this view, although the momentum oscillators still appear to have a little more juice to the upside over the near-term so another tag of $0.60 would not surprise us before the bears get active again.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $0.40 for upside to the $0.80 area.
Wownero (WOW) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre WOW/BTC daily linear chart
With ARRR taking a hit over the past few days it’s quite impressive to see how well WOW/BTC is holding up, especially considering the still lackluster state of the momentum and volume indications. Notice the nice rounded bottom that has been forming over the past several weeks at higher medium-term lows that are turning market structure much more favorable while the shorter-term moving averages slowly reverse back to the upside for the first time in months, also very impressive in terms of the technicals. While we expect it to be a slow grind higher over the coming weeks, with some more near-term consolidation as well, we think accumulating around current levels is a good play for longer-term upside well above 0.00000250.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00000160 for upside to the 0.00000250 area.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika WOW/USD daily linear chart
WOW/USD has been picking up some steam to the upside over the past week or so following a test of previous resistance (which became support), thus forming a higher low that confirmed bullish medium-term market structure, so we think the path of least resistance is still generally to the upside overall. The rising moving averages and primed MACD also suggest a bullish bias moving forward, however a bearish candle formation today and a close to overbought RSI reading are keeping us cautious over the near-term so we’re expecting more turbulence around the $0.10 level before a test of the ATHs (or new ATHs) materialize.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $0.085 for upside to the $0.14 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!