Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Mars 8 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
While the broader consolidation continues in the bitcoin markets, it didn’t take long into the weekend for the newflow to turn positive again, this time regarding some international players that are buying BTC (and ETH!), thus forcing the near-term technicals into the backseat once again which is why we see price rallying back above $50k to start this week. Actually, the unexpectedly quick turnaround from the rather bearish setup late last week has shifted the technicals back into a fairly encouraging position, so we now think that any dip below $50k can be bought for what we think will be a continuation to the upside over the course of this week.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll start this second week of March off with a look at the 6-hour chart where we can see that the price action since the beginning of the month has been forming a bullish ascending triangle pattern on increasingly bullish shorter-term market structure and still favorable volume indications (primarily the A/D line), so it appears as though the near-term bias has shifted back towards the bulls for now. The fact that price is now back above all of the moving averages, all of which are now rising again, is also good news for the bulls moving forward, as are the still favorable momentum oscillators, all suggesting that a move back into the mid to high-$50k’s is likely before another pullback.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll also revisit the daily chart once again to see how our fractal is doing and while there are structural differences between the two consolidations we still think that the timing of the beginning next rally is likely to line up with the March 12th target from Saturday’s update. The still rising moving averages, improving momentum oscillators, intact longer-term market structure, and still supportive volume indications also point to the start of the next leg up commencing in the not too distant future, although a substantial amount of resistance resides between $55k and $58k so we think some turbulence is to be expected before new all-time highs materialize.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $50,000 for upside to the $56,000 area. Medium-term target resides around $65,000.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC 6-hour linear chart
While it certainly wasn’t great for the XMR/BTC bulls to watch price break down out of the symmetrical triangle over the weekend (even though the technicals foretold this move), it hasn’t taken long for the market to find support at the top of the upper demand area on a slightly improving A/D line and recharged and rising momentum oscillators, so there are some rays of hope for the bulls moving forward. We also like that a higher low appears to be forming which should help market structure over the coming days, however the mostly bearish moving averages overhead are likely to keep price pinned below 0.0045 for a bit longer so patience remains a virtue in this one.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0040 for upside to 0.0060. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
It came as no surprise that XMR/USD briefly dipped below $200 over the weekend as expected given the recent breakdown out of the bearish rising wedge, although it has been fairly surprising how well the market has been holding up since the selloff given that there really isn’t much in the way of technical or historical support around current levels. It’s also nice to see the moving averages continue to rise while the momentum oscillators begin to improve and the volume indications remain very encouraging, so we still think that buying any dips below $200 is the longer-term play for 2021.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $200 for upside to $300. Longer-term target sits around $400.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
Not only did we get news over the weekend that Meitu is the first company to buy Ethereum for its treasury, but a recently approved proposal to burn coins upon each transaction (EIP 1559) has been met with praise from developers, users, and the market which is likely behind some of the gains that we’ve seen over the past few days. The positive technicals that we talked about on Saturday are also fueling some of the recent upside, and we expect this trend to continue considering that price has popped back above the shorter-term moving averages on favorable candle formations and improving momentum and volume indications hence we are still leaning firmly bullish moving forward.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.032 for upside to 0.037. Longer-term target remains in the 0.055 area.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
After putting in a medium-term higher low late last month that solidified bullish longer-term market structure, price has since been moving steadily to the upside crossing back above the 50 SMA while the longer-term moving averages continue to rise, all good news for the bulls over the coming days. The improving momentum oscillators, which have plenty of room to run to the upside, and the still very favorable volume indications also suggest that the bulls are now firmly in control, however resistance is quite stiff around the psychologically significant $2000 level so we expect some turbulence around there before new highs materializes in a few weeks.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $1600 for upside to the $2500 area.
Yearn Finance (YFI) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance YFI/BTC daily linear chart
YFI/BTC has been very quiet over the past few weeks despite a false breakdown below the longer-term uptrend line and a subsequent retaking of the line over the weekend, however it looks like the bulls are starting to get a bit more active on improving momentum oscillators and still favorable volume indications so we’re starting to get more positive on this one (at least from a longer-term perspective). The recent short-term double bottom is also good news for the bulls overall, however a rejection at the still falling 50 SMA today has sparked a bearish candle formation that could put the kibosh on any upside over the near-term so we’ll stay patient until more convincing signs of a sustainable rally emerge.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.70 for longer-term upside to the 1.20 area.
TradingView Binance YFI/USDT daily linear chart
After finding support around the $30k level over the past few weeks thus establishing a new medium-term higher low, and confirming bullish market structure, YFI/USDT has been moving generally higher on favorable momentum and volume indications while the moving averages remain supportive and continue to rise, all of which is good news for the bulls moving forward. That said, the rejection near the previous highs today has turned the current candle formation quite bearish while resistance remains heavy overhead so we think it will remain a grind for the bulls over the near-term.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $35,000 for upside to the $50,000 area. Longer-term target resides around $65,000.
Good Luck, Good Trading!