Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Mars 6 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
As newsflow slows over the weekend and the technicals take over in terms of price action it comes as no surprise that the bitcoin markets continue to consolidate in the high-$40k’s as expected, and over the near-term we see no reason not to expect more of the same. Actually, it looks like the bias over the coming days is likely to be slightly to the downside, so caution remains warranted for the bulls, however we’re also still leaning bullish longer-term so we’ll continue to add to positions below the $45k level if given the opportunity.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll begin this final update of the week with a look at the daily chart where we can see that price is still consolidating in a similar fashion to the January correction, and if this fractal materializes then we can expect the start of the next leg of the bull market to begin in about a week. The still rising moving averages, almost recharged momentum oscillators, favorable volume indications, and intact medium-term market structure are all supportive of the idea of new all-time highs after this period of weakness is over, like last time, however bearish near-term market structure and discouraging candle formations recently tell us that a final move into the low-$40k’s is quite possible before the uptrend resumes.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
Next we’ll look at the weekly chart where we can see that the longer-term technical outlook hasn’t changed much since last week considering that price is still consolidating in the $40k’s on overbought momentum oscillators but still favorable volume indications, so more directionless action appears likely over the shorter-term. The fairly bearish candle formation this week supports this idea, and actually also the idea of some downside over the near-term, however the rising moving averages are keeping us bullish once this correction is over so we’ll keep buying the dips while we have the chance.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $45,000 for upside to the $65,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC weekly linear chart
We’ll zoom out to the XMR/BTC weekly chart today to see where the longer-term technicals stand and for now there isn’t much to discuss given price continues to consolidate around the top of the longer-term demand area on a hodgepodge of candle formations, uncertain shorter-term market structure, and still bearish longer-term structure, so we think more choppy sideways action is likely moving forward. The lackluster momentum and volume indications and the falling moving averages support this idea, although we still think that long-term accumulation is taking place in this area so patience remains the key virtue in this market for the time being.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0040 for upside to 0.0060. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
It’s not great news for the XMR/USD bulls that price has moved below the horizontal support line from the last cycle on a bearish candle formation and discouraging near-term market structure, all of which points to more downside over the coming days. The still recharging momentum oscillators also suggest a challenging near-term environment for the bulls, although the moving averages continue to pick up steam to the upside and the volume indications remain favorable overall so the longer-term outlook remains bullish moving forward.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $200 for upside to $325.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Bittrex ETH/BTC weekly linear chart
We’ll revisit ETH/BTC today as it remains a strong buy around current levels in our opinion given that longer-term market structure remains intact while the rising 50 SMA acts as shorter-term support and the momentum oscillators get close to recharged, all good news for the bulls moving forward. The fact that the 100 SMA has stabilized below the market while the volume indications remain favorable also points to a bullish reversal back into a bull market in the not too distant future, although we think another week or so of consolidation near the 0.030 level is likely before the bulls really get going.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.032 for upside to 0.055.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD weekly linear chart
While it’s been a rough go of it for the ETH/USD bulls over the past few weeks, the fact that price continues to react favorably to the upper demand area is a good sign moving forward, as is longer-term market structure which remains firmly intact due to the support that is holding at previous highs. It’s also nice to see that the momentum oscillators are no longer overbought while the volume indications remain very encouraging and the moving averages continue to rise, so we want to continue to buy dips if given the chance, although momentum still has a long way to go before being ready for another leg up to new highs so more chop around current levels appears likely over the coming week.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $1400 for upside to the $2500 area.
Uniswap (UNI) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance UNI/BTC daily linear chart
Finally, let’s take a look at UNI/BTC which is on the verge of a breakout to the upside following a textbook correction and recovery that is now pausing to consolidate near the previous regional highs and in the heart of the OTE short zone between the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels, all good news for the bulls moving forward. The fact that the moving averages are still rising while the momentum oscillators move higher with room to run is also very positive for the bulls overall, however we would like to see some volume come in to confirm the bullish bias so perhaps a bit more consolidation below 0.00062 is likely before the breakout materializes.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00062 for upside to the 0.00075 area.
TradingView Binance UNI/USDT daily linear chart
Despite UNI/USDT having some struggles at the bottom of the main supply area over the course of this week, the overall setup looks very bullish as shorter-term market structure has recovered while longer-term structure remains firmly intact and the moving averages continue to rise, so we’re expecting a move back into the $30’s in the not too distant future. The favorable momentum and volume indications support the idea of higher prices moving forward, however we are expecting some shorter-term turbulence before new all-time highs above $33 are established.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $30 for upside to the $40 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!