Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Mars 4 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
While it was nice to see the bitcoin markets rally up into the $52,000’s yesterday, it comes as no surprise that the move was unsustainable given the state of the technicals on Tuesday and our outlook at that time. Since then price has pulled back to the $48k area on this slow news day and it looks like a bit more downside may be in order before the bulls get active once again. That said, we’re still leaning bullish longer-term so we want to continue to use these dips to add to current positions.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
First we want to revisit the 6-hour chart where we can see that the descending channel from earlier in the week has been broken to the upside thus turning near-term market structure more bullish while the 200 SMA continues to rise, all fairly good signs for the bulls as we approach the upcoming weekend. That bullishness is offset, however, by the recent break of the 100 SMA, the still falling 50 SMA, and the lackluster momentum and volume indications so we see no reason to deviate from our current forecast for more consolidation in the high-$40k’s to low-$50k’s over the coming days.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We also want to take a look at the daily chart for a closer view of the medium-term technicals where we can see that the rejection above $50k yesterday sparked a pretty discouraging candle formation that is being followed up by another bearish candle today thus keeping near-term market structure uncertain, all confirming our call for more consolidation in this area before a sustainable move to new highs materializes. That said, it might not be too much longer before the next leg of the bull market begins considering the still rising moving averages, the almost recharged momentum oscillators, and the still favorable volume indications so we want to continue buying this weakness while we have the chance.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $45,500 for upside to the $65,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC continues to tread water inside of the symmetrical triangle on mixed candle formations and uncertain short-term market structure while the longer-term SMA’s continue to move lower and the momentum and volume indications remain suboptimal, so unfortunately for the bulls it looks like the odds are currently favoring a breakdown out of the triangle. That said, price is finding some support at the 50 SMA and near the lower trendline so if the bulls can defend the 0.0041 area through the weekend then perhaps we’ll be proven wrong with a breakout higher next week.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0042 for upside to 0.0060. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD has broken down out of the rising wedge over the past 24 hours on a bearish candle formation that is turning already bearish market structure heavy once again while the momentum oscillators continue to recharge, so it looks like our call for a test of sub-$200 prices is starting to materialize. Having said that, we also still want to be buyers of this dip below $200 if we get it due to the still rising moving averages and the encouraging volume indications.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $200 for upside to $325.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance BCH/BTC daily linear chart
It’s been a while since we looked at BCH/BTC so we will today where we can see on the daily chart above that a false breakout above the long-term downtrend line a few weeks ago quickly reversed into a continuation of the trend lower while the moving averages fall and the volume indications show sellers are still more active than buyers, all bad news for the bulls moving forward. The lackluster momentum oscillators are another reason why we are staying neutral on this one, however the new demand area is providing near-term support which is something we’ll watch over the coming days.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
TradingView Coinbase BCH/USD daily linear chart
Following a run-up to over $750 last month, BCH/USD has been moving swiftly to the downside until recently where the $500 level has become the fulcrum for the current consolidation, which we think is likely to continue over the shorter-term. The still recharging momentum oscillators and the flatlining 50 SMA also point to more of the same moving forward, although the rising longer-term moving averages and the still favorable volume indications both suggest that the long-term outlook remains relatively bullish overall.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $450 for upside to the $700 area.
Decred (DCR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance DCR/BTC 3-day linear chart
Lastly we’ll look at DCR where we can see on the BTC pair that the correction that we were expecting to materialize at the 0.0030 level has still not happened and is looking increasingly unlikely as bullish consolidation within an ascending triangle is taking place just below key resistance, which is usually a very good sign for the bulls. The still improving volume indications, the recent bullish 50/100 SMA cross, the reversing 200 SMA, and intact medium-term market structure are also very good signs for the bulls moving forward, so we now think that a breakout up into the 0.0040’s is the path of least resistance until further notice.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0030 for upside to the 0.045 area.
TradingView Binance DCR/USD 3-day linear chart
DCR/USD continues to consolidate in the mid-$100’s this week following the spike high into the $170’s late last month, which we don’t think is such a bad thing considering the pace and magnitude of the medium-term uptrend. In fact, it’s quite healthy given the overbought state of the momentum oscillators and the distance between price and the rising moving averages, therefore we’re still longer-term bullish but think we could be consolidating in the $100’s for a good long while before a breakout above $175.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $130 for upside to the $170 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!