Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Mars 1 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Following an expectedly bearish weekend that saw the bitcoin markets move all the way down to the $43k level, a newsy day today has shifted the narrative back toward the bull camp as we begin the month of March. Not only did Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy buy another 328 BTC for around $15 million over the past few days, but the megabank Citi released a 108-page research report that was cautiously bullish to say the least. The technicals also appear to have turned a corner, so despite price not getting as low as our $42k call from late last week we think there is a pretty good chance that a sustainable low is now in and the slow grind back to the upside has already commenced.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
First we’ll take a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the short-term technicals following a challenging weekend where we can see that price moved down into the heart of the OTE long zone between the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels where buyers began to reemerge on some textbook bullish momentum divergences and still favorable volume indications, all of which suggests that we’ve seen a sustainable low. The move back above the still rising 100 SMA, the still trending 200 SMA, and the fact that the momentum oscillators continue to have some room to run higher all point to at least a slight bullish bias over the course of this week (although the falling 50 SMA around $50k will likely cause some turbulence when we get there).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll also take a look at the daily chart to start the month of March where we can see that price is already moving swiftly out of the OTE long zone on a bullish candle formation following a classic reversal candle yesterday that has kept longer-term market structure intact while the moving averages continue to move to the upside, all good signs for the bulls moving forward. Having said that, the momentum oscillators are not yet fully recharged and we did not test the support confluence around $42k as expected so we cannot rule out one final washout down to that area before the bull market truly resumes again (which would be a fantastic opportunity to buy below $45k one last time).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $45,000 for upside to the $65,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
XMR/BTC
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
A brief spike up to the 0.0050 area over the weekend caused some excitement for the XMR/BTC bulls, although the excitement was short-lived as price is down ~7% today on still lackluster momentum and volume indications and falling longer-term moving averages. That said, the now rising 50 SMA and the developing triangle are both small but relevant rays of hope for the bulls moving forward so we’ll continue to hold long positions and add on dips towards the bottom of the triangle formation.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0043 for upside to 0.0060. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.
XMR/USD
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
Following a spike down to the rising 50 SMA last week price has been slowly plodding its way back to the upside on a hodgepodge of candle formations and still highly uncertain shorter-term market structure, which does not instill much confidence in the bulls moving forward. The fact that price is in no man’s land between supply and demand areas is also not a great sign for either the bulls or the bears over the coming days, although the moving averages are all moving to the upside and the momentum and volume indications remain favorable overall so we think the bias will return to bullish once some additional consolidation takes place below $240.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $200 for upside to $325.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) Technical Analysis & Outlook
BSV/BTC
TradingView Huobi BSV/BTC daily linear chart
BSV/BTC continues to be a disappointment despite the break of the trendline last month that should have sparked some buying interest but has not so far as price is now heading back down towards that broken line on still very bearish market structure and discouraging candle formations while all of the moving averages continue to move to the downside, so the bears are still in full control unfortunately. The volume indications also don’t give us much hope that the bulls can turn this around anytime soon so we’ll stay neutral and on the sidelines for the foreseeable future.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
BSV/USD
TradingView OKex BSV/USDT weekly linear chart
We’ll also look at BSV/USDT where we can see that price remains in a volatile long-term uptrend that is generally following the slowly rising moving averages on very mixed candle formations, uncertain shorter-term market structure, and poor momentum and volume indications, so we don’t expect the trend to accelerate at any point in the near future. Actually, the path of least resistance still appears to be sideways to slightly lower for now so we don’t see any reason to get more involved at this time.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
ChainLink (LINK) Technical Analysis & Outlook
LINK/BTC
TradingView Binance LINK/BTC daily linear chart
It’s been a while since we looked at LINK/BTC so we’ll revisit the daily chart today where we can see that price has been moving to the downside over the past month and a half within what appears to be a descending channel on bearish shorter-term market structure but still intact medium-term structure, all suggesting more consolidative action with a slight bearish bias inside of the channel. The lackluster momentum and volume indications, the falling longer-term moving averages, and the 50/100 SMA confluence overhead also point to a fairly challenging environment for the bulls over the shorter-term, so we’ll stay neutral until the channel is broken to the upside.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
LINK/USD
TradingView Kraken LINK/USD daily linear chart
LINK/USD has experienced some massive upside and downside volatility over the past few weeks as new highs above $36 quickly turned into a crash down to the $13 level in a matter of just a few days thus breaking short and medium-term market structure, and since then price has been treading water in the $20’s on still recharging momentum oscillators while finding support at the 50 SMA, all of which points to more consolidation moving forward. The recent stagnation in the A/D line also signifies that indecision has gripped the market, hence a directionally challenged environment for the foreseeable future, although the still rising moving average and elevated A/D line tell us that we should still be leaning bullish longer-term.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $20 for longer-term upside to the $40 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!