Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Mars 2 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
With high-profile investors continuing to proclaim their interest in bitcoin and crypto, Dan Loeb and Kevin O’Leary being the latest over the past 24 hours, we are still quite bullish from a longer-term perspective. The technicals confirm this view, although the run-up to and subsequent pullback from the $50k level over the past 24 hours is keeping us fairly neutral over the shorter-term as this period of bullish consolidation continues as expected, a period that we want to keep taking advantage of while we have the chance.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll begin with another look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the short-term technicals where we can see that the top of the still intact descending wedge and the falling 50 SMA provided resistance around $50k yesterday as expected and since then price has moved back below the 100 SMA on some discouraging candle formations that are keeping near-term market structure bearish for the time being, all of which point to more choppy action in the mid to high-$40k’s over the next few days. The mixed momentum oscillators and the stagnating volume indications also suggest a directionally challenged market over the shorter-term, however we still think that support holds in the OTE long zone before a resumption of the bull market so we’ll continue to buy dips below $45k if given the opportunity moving forward.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 3-day linear chart
Next we’ll zoom out to the 3-day chart where we can see that price is still consolidating below the 323.6% Fibonacci extension level on a hodgepodge of candle formations and uncertain near-term market structure, not great news for the bulls over the shorter-term. The fact that the momentum oscillators have yet to recharge much is also a bit of a concern for the bulls over the next week or two, however we already see structural similarities between the previous correction in January and this one that are telling us that we’re getting close to the bottom of this brief downtrend so we’ll be ready for the rally when the bull market resumes later this month.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $45,000 for upside to the $65,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC 6-hour linear chart
XMR/BTC is still creeping to the downside today as expected within the symmetrical triangle pattern that we identified yesterday on some bearish candle formations that are keeping market structure highly uncertain, all of which confirms our still intact forecast for a move down to the 0.0043 area before the bulls start to reemerge. The discouraging volume indications, still recharging momentum oscillators, and mixed moving averages all confirm this view, although they also suggest that the triangle is likely to persist through the end of the week so we’ll stay fairly neutral for the time being.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0043 for upside to 0.0060. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
While we remain longer-term bulls on XMR/USD moving forward, we have identified a bearish rising wedge formation on the daily chart above following the development of a firmly bearish candle formation today that is keeping near-term market structure bearish and heavy while the momentum oscillators continue to recharge, so a retest of sub-$200 prices before a sustainable move back above $250 would not surprise us one bit. In fact, we would use this as an opportunity to add to longer-term positions given the still very bullish state of the moving averages and the volume indications.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $200 for upside to $325.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
While it’s been a tough go of it recently for the ETH/BTC bulls as price has pulled back from a high of 0.046 last month down to 0.030 over the past week, we are seeing some very encouraging rays of hope on the daily chart above so we think it’s time to get more aggressive on the long side before the bulls truly start get active. Notice that price is finding support in the upper demand area and the OTE long zone while the momentum oscillators get close to fully recharged, MACD flashes a strong bullish divergence, and the A/D line is starting to make a higher low, therefore we’ll use this opportunity around the 0.030 level to add to positions before another uptrend materializes in the not too distant future.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.032 for longer-term upside to the 0.050 area.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
Over the past few days ETH/USD has found a local bottom at the top of the upper demand area and in the OTE long zone on a bullish hammer candle that has kept longer-term market structure intact while the momentum oscillators get close to recharged and the volume indications remain very encouraging, so we still think this dip is for buying. The still rising longer-term moving averages also suggest that we should stay bullish longer-term, although we cannot rule out a bit more consolidation around this $1400 level before a sustainable push back to the upside, which we will use as an opportunity to add to long positions while we have the chance.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $1400 for upside to the $2500 area.
Aave (AAVE) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance AAVE/BTC 3-day linear chart
Despite still bearish shorter-term market structure and a bearish 3-day candle formation that has started to develop today, we still like the look of the medium-term AAVE/BTC setup considering that price is moving back above the old highs from last fall right now on still rising moving averages and improving momentum oscillators following a textbook reversal out of the OTE long zone late last month, so we think this one remains a buy around and below current levels for the longer-term. That said, the volume indications still aren’t corroborating the bullish narrative so we’re expecting more consolidation below 0.010 over the shorter-term.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0075 for longer-term upside to the 0.015 area.
TradingView Binance AAVE/USDT daily linear chart
Following multiple rejected spikes down into the upper support area shown above in green over the past few weeks, AAVE/USDT has been moving to the upside recently on bullish candle formations that still favorable longer-term market structure while the moving averages continue to rise, all good news for the bulls moving forward. The encouraging momentum and volume indications also suggest that this correction is almost over, however the current candle formation is coming in quite bearish so more consolidation over the near-term with a slight bearish bias seems to be the most reasonable path for price before the uptrend truly resumes down the road a bit.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $350 for upside to the $500 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!