Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook

(February 26 – 2021)

Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook

Some mid-week strength up to the $52k area has turned into some late week softness down below $45k over the past 24 hours, and despite a bounce back to $48k this morning price action remains fairly bearish overall. The technicals are also in no man’s land heading into the weekend and liquidity will be thinning over the next few days, therefore a bit more downside appears likely before a sustainable bottom is established. Having said that, the longer-term outlook remains favorable therefore we’ll continue to use this period of weakness as an opportunity to add to our long-term HODL positions while we have the chance.

TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart

We’ll begin this final update of the week with a look at the daily chart where we can see that price moved down into the OTE long zone between the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels today for the second time during this correction only to spike back above there in short order, which is a decent sign for the bulls moving forward. The still rising moving averages and the steady volume indications are also positive signs for the bulls from a slightly longer-term perspective, hence our buy the dip mentality, however the momentum oscillators are not yet fully recharged and we’re expecting a support confluence to form when the 50 SMA hits the 78.6% Fib level and the previous regional top in the next day or two, so we think there is a good chance that price tests $42k before a sustainable reversal materializes.

TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD monthly log chart

Given that Monday is the start of a new month we’ll zoom out to the monthly log chart for a view of the longer-term technicals where we can see that the recent pullback from all-time highs has resulted in an increasingly bearish candle formation that is portending at least a month or two of consolidation before a continuation of the bull market, at least based on similar candles in the previous cycle. The overbought momentum oscillators are also a bit concerning for the bulls over the shorter-term, although we mustn’t lose sight of the longer-term goal of six figure prices so buying this dip remains the right call until proven otherwise.

Trade Idea: Buy dips below $45,000 for upside to the $65,000 area. 

Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook

XMR/BTC

TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC weekly linear chart

While XMR/BTC continues to tread water in the 0.0040’s we are still getting signals that accumulation is taking place, particularly below the top of the long-term demand area, thus sparking a fairly encouraging candle formation this week while the momentum oscillators continue to slowly improve, so we’re still leaning bullish over the longer-term. Having said that, the volume indications remain lackluster and the moving averages are still falling so the shorter-term outlook is not as sanguine meaning more consolidation before a sustainable move higher.

Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0040 for upside to 0.0050. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.

XMR/USD

TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart 

Despite a few brutal weeks for the XMR/USD bulls recently, the longer-term outlook remains favorable considering the still rising moving averages, the encouraging volume indications, and the fact that price is reacting to the horizontal support line that we drew months ago, therefore we’ll continue to use weakness as an opportunity to buy. On the other hand, the momentum oscillators still have quite a bit of recharging to do so over the shorter-term it looks like more consolidation is likely with a slight bearish bias.

Trade Idea: Accumulate below $200 for upside to $325.

Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook

ETH/BTC

TradingView Bittrex ETH/BTC weekly linear chart

Following a tag of the 200 SMA late last month price has since been moving steadily to the downside on bearish candle formations and heavy near-term market structure while the momentum oscillators recharge and the volume indications stagnate, although the bounce off of the 50 SMA recently is turning the current candle formation more bullish so we’re starting to get a bit more encouraged at this time. The fact that the 50 SMA is still rising while the 100 SMA remains steady below the market is also helpful for the bulls moving forward, as is the demand area that price is currently inside of, so we’ll keep buying at these depressed prices for longer-term upside over the coming months.

Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.035 for longer-term upside to 0.080.

ETH/USD

TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD weekly linear chart 

While the past week has been quite painful for the ETH/USD bulls given a $600 pullback from the weekly high, the bounce out of the upper demand area recently is a classic example of an all-time high retest before a continuation higher therefore we’re starting to get more bullish for the time being. The rising moving averages and favorable volume indications also suggest that we should be staying bullish longer-term, however the still overbought momentum oscillators are telling us that there could easily be at least a few more weeks of consolidation before the bull market resumes.

Trade Idea: Buy dips below $1400 for upside to the $2350 area.

Uniswap (UNI) Technical Analysis & Outlook

UNI/BTC

TradingView Binance UNI/BTC daily linear chart

Finally, we’ll take a look at UNI before the weekend where we can see on the BTC pair that price continues to struggle with the OTE short zone overhead thus keeping many of the recent candle formations fairly bearish and shorter-term market structure highly uncertain which leads us to believe that another test of the upper demand area is likely over the near-term. The still mixed momentum oscillators are also pointing to a challenging environment for the bulls over the coming days, however the slowly improving volume indications and favorable longer-term structure are telling us to buy this dip, particularly below 0.00045.

Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00045 for upside to the 0.00070 area.

UNI/USD

TradingView Binance UNI/USDT daily linear chart 

Following a spike up near the 238.2% Fibonacci extension level last weekend price moved lower to test the new upper demand area which stopped the bleeding and allowed price to enter consolidation mode as we move towards the end of the workweek, which is decent news for the bulls for the time being. The rising moving averages, still favorable volume indications, and intact longer-term market structure are also suggesting that the bulls are still in good shape overall, however the momentum oscillators continue to recharge so more consolidation in the $20’s appears likely before a resumption of the bull market (which is good news for us given we want to continue to buy the dips).

Trade Idea: Buy dips below $22 for upside to the $37 area.

Good Luck, Good Trading!