Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(February 22 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Following what was a great weekend for bitcoin with price hitting new all-time highs above $58,000, the market is now pulling back on comments by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen that bitcoin is an inefficient means of transacting and is likely used for illicit purposes. Elon Musk also chimed in on Saturday saying that he thinks that bitcoin prices seem high, which likely also put additional pressure on the market this morning, although the move below $50k was short-lived so we think this is simply a washout after a steady climb up to a $1 trillion market cap over the past several days.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
Bitcoin continues to react well to the 6-hour technicals so we’ll revisit this chart once again where we can see that the persistent rally over the weekend ended late yesterday and has resulted in a relatively large selloff today that wicked down past the old rising wedge and into the OTE long zone where buyers began to quickly emerge to send price back above $50k, which is actually fairly good news for the bulls moving forward. The fact that price is already back above the wedge and the 50 SMA is also good for the bulls overall, as is the still favorable A/D line, although the momentum oscillators still have some recharging to do so some additional consolidation seems likely before a run at the $60k area later this week or early next.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
We’ll also take a look at the weekly chart today for a view of the longer-term technicals where we can see that price moved up into the 323.6% – 338.2% Fibonacci extension area over the weekend where resistance began to attract sellers thus resulting in the selloff that we’ve seen start this week, which is not great for the bulls over the near-term considering the still overbought state of the momentum oscillators. Having said that, longer-term market structure remains firmly bullish, the current candle formation is actually quickly becoming more encouraging for now, the moving averages are all picking up steam to the upside, and the volume indications remains supportive of the bull market so we think this is a pause that refreshes rather than the end of the intermediate term trend.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $50,000 for upside to the $65,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
There is good news and bad news for the XMR/BTC bulls as we start this last week of February. The bad news is that the pennant/triangle that we discussed late last week ended up resolving to the downside which took price below 0.0040 over the past few days on discouraging volume indications and still recharging momentum oscillators while price moved back below all of the falling moving averages, so we need to stay fairly cautious over the near-term. The good news is that there has been a sharp reversal back out of the demand area today resulting in a bullish hammer candle that is keeping market structure decent for the time being, a sign that we should still be buying at these low levels for longer-term holding.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0045 for upside to 0.0070. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD finally peaked out near the 250% Fibonacci extension level over the weekend and has since pulled back sharply on a large candle formation that has broken near-term market structure while the momentum oscillators begin to recharge, so we think enough technical damage has been done to keep price below $300 for awhile longer. Having said that, the still rising moving averages remain longer-term bullish and the still strong A/D line tells us that the bulls are buying this dip hence the recent reversal and increasingly bullish candle formation so we’ll use this weakness as an opportunity to buy more for the longer-term.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $250 for upside to $325.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
Next we’ll revisit ETH/BTC for a view of where we stand following the recent selloff and we can see that price has moved all the way down to the top of the adjusted upper demand area and to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on discouraging volume indications and bearish shorter-term market structure, not great news for the bulls over the near-term. That said, the still rising longer-term moving averages are providing some support today, longer-term market structure is still intact, and the momentum oscillators are almost recharged so we want to be buyers of any dips below 0.032 if given the opportunity moving forward.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.032 for upside to the 0.040 area.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
The ETH/USD daily looks eerily similar to the BTC 6-hour chart we looked at earlier given the recent move back down to and below the previous rising wedge on a large candle formation that has broken near-term market structure following a move up into the OTE short zone over the weekend, so the bulls are on the defensive for the first time in a while. The fact that the momentum oscillators have just begun to recharge is also not great for the bulls over the near-term, however price is already reversing back to the upside today thus turning the current candle formation more bullish while the volume indications continue to rise and the volume indications remain encouraging so we want to use this dip to add to longer-term positions while we have the chance.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $1600 for upside to the $2300 area.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre DERO/BTC 3-day linear chart
Finally, we’ll take our first look at DERO/BTC following a big rally over the past 24 hours on the back of Mr. X’s very well timed alert yesterday and we can see that price moved all the way up into the bottom of the OTE short zone on a large and still fairly bullish candle formation that is close to confirming a shift to bullish medium-term market structure while the OBV reading picks up steam to the upside telling us that buyers are making up most of the volume, all very good news for the bulls moving forward. The break of the falling moving averages and the rising MACD are also good signs for the bulls, however RSI has quickly become overbought and resistance is stiff above 0.00006600 so we think there could be a bit of turbulence before price moves up to new regional highs again (which we think are likely in the not too distant future).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00005000 for upside to the 0.00008000 area.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika DERO/USD weekly linear chart
DERO/USD has been on quite a run over the past few weeks moving up to new regional and cycle highs on firmly bullish weekly candle formations that have already confirmed a shift to bullish longer-term market structure, which all bodes well for the bulls moving forward. The slowly rising moving averages, the breakout in MACD, and a lack of historical or technical resistance until the $3.60 area also suggests that higher prices are likely over the coming weeks, however RSI is now officially overbought so perhaps we get a healthy pause for the rest of the week before price moves up into the OTE short zone between the 61.8 and 78.6 % Fibonacci retracement levels.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $2.00 for upside to the $4.00 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!