Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(February 19 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
As bitcoin hits new all-time highs the good news continues to roll in, the biggest of which being that legendary bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach has posited that bitcoin may be a better inflation hedge than gold over the coming years which is a huge shift for a very influential person. Additionally, the technicals remain favorable in the context of this strong bull market that is also being supported by persistently positive supply and demand dynamics so we see no reason not to raise price targets once again now that $56k has been tagged in short order.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We once again want to revisit the 6-hour chart as it remains the best view of the short-term technical setup where we can see that there was a perfect retest of the upper wedge trendline yesterday that catapulted price up to new all time highs above $56k today, and now we’re starting to consolidate above $55k on encouraging price action which is all very good news for the bulls moving forward. The steadily rising moving averages, the still bullish volume indications, and firmly intact market structure all support the idea of even higher prices from here, although the momentum oscillators are getting back into officially overbought territory so perhaps another slow grind sideways is likely over the near-term before moving up to the next Fibonacci extension levels discussed below.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next up we want to look at the daily chart for the first time in a while to see if any of the short-term Fibonacci extension levels line up with the medium-term levels we’ve been looking at for weeks, and the 278.6% extension is at ~$65,500 while the 378.6% level on the medium-term charts from earlier this week is at ~$65,700, so this $65k area seems to be a nice confluence for the next upside target. Granted, momentum is getting back in overbought territory so a correction could come at any time, however the rising moving averages and still favorable volume indications suggest that we’re still in a powerful bull market so the target is being raised to $65k over the next few weeks.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $50,000 for upside to the $65,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
Today we’ll zoom out to the daily XMR/BTC chart where we can see that an unorthodox but legitimately bullish pennant appears to be forming on increasingly bullish shorter-term market structure and improving volume indications, all signs that are keeping us inclined to the upside for the time being. The momentum oscillators also leave room to the upside over the near-term, which is why we are keeping our initial target at the 200 SMA around 0.0070, although we also wouldn’t mind a false breakdown out of the pennant in order to scoop up more coins below 0.0045 so we’ll be ready in case that occurs.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0045 for upside to 0.0070. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD has quickly shot up above our $275 target over the past few days and above $280 today on a firmly bullish candle formation that is confirming already bullish market structure while the moving averages accelerate to the upside and the A/D line skyrockets higher, all very good news for the bulls moving forward. The moving averages, while already overbought, also don’t look that bad in the context of a strong uptrend, therefore the next logical target appears to be in the OTE short zone (between the 261.8% and 278.6% Fibonacci extension levels) around the psychologically significant $300 level.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $250 for upside to $300.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
We already need to take another look at ARRR/BTC given the massive move to the upside that we saw yesterday, and we can see that price has popped above the longer-term moving average confluence and is now testing that area on a textbook doji candle, which is all very good news for the bulls as long as price closes above 0.00000620 today. The rapidly improving OBV reading and favorable MACD also suggest that the bulls are now in control, although the overbought RSI is telling us that a bit of consolidation is likely before a move up into heavier resistance in the 0.00000800 – 0.00001000 area.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00000600 for upside to the 0.00001000 area.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika ARRR/USD daily linear chart
ARRR/USD has rocketed to the upside over the past few days, well above our expectations, on large and mainly bullish candle formations that have solidified longer-term bullish market structure with the break to new highs, all very good signs for the bulls moving forward. The rising moving averages and lack of historical resistance are also great for the bulls longer-term, however price is hitting Fibonacci resistance right now and the RSI is overbought so perhaps a pause is in order before the $0.40’s are properly explored.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $0.30 for upside to the $0.50 area.
Wownero (WOW) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre WOW/BTC daily linear chart
Lastly , we’ll take a look at another young privacy coin that’s been on the move recently with WOW/BTC where we can see that the slow and brutal bleed down into the long-term demand area appears to finally be over as a sharp impulse higher over the past few days on very bullish candle formations has propelled price above the shorter-term moving averages on strong volume while OBV rises, all very good news for the bulls moving forward. The MACD reading is also encouraging and points to higher prices, although RSI is already overbought so we expect some turbulence in the 0.00000300 area which is where the falling 200 SMA and previous regional top reside.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00000150 for upside to the 0.00000300 area.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika WOW/USD daily linear chart
After a break above longer-term resistance WOW/USD is now in price discovery mode on large bullish candle formations that have already confirmed a shift to long-term bullish market structure, all of which bodes very well for the bulls moving forward. The fact that the moving averages are all starting to pick up steam is also great news for the bulls overall, however the overbought RSI reading and Fibonacci resistance overhead are making us more cautious over the near-term even though we think $0.14 – $0.15 area is likely in the not too distant future.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $0.10 for upside to the $0.15 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!